My portfolio. Does this look ok?

So to see the trend you a 200 day moving average will show you a solid trend.
I am on my phone so can't show any charts but will make another post tomorrow if anyone is interested.

 

I'm interested, if you don't mind

Why 200 day?


-Frank

 

I was going to buy VAS and VGS but instead I bought VDGH instead - That way I don't have to re balance.


-Frank

 

Whats the chanced of a depression? What happens to the stock market and our money in the case of a depression? (I know not very likely but still)


-Frank

 

What the chance of you losing your job ? that will be depression for you, your friend losing his job that a recession

 

Interesting

 

I know very little and still learning but I thought VDGH was a slightly different make up to VAS + VGS which im planning to purchase at a 50/50
Ratio.

 

Yeah it has some bonds or fixed interest in it.. Its a bit of a mix that I like. If you want 50/50 then yeah just do VAS and VGS I suppose.


-Frank

 

I recall the GFC. Investors thought you beauty it’s over we’re in recovery, the uptrend is here. Bang, subsequent savage bear market hit with a vengeance.

Honestly I personally don’t believe you can pick these turning points. I’ve been through a few such events now, perhaps I’m wrong but the best one can do is continue to average into these events.

 

Incorrect.. It becomes easier each decade. You have plenty of history to look back into. Buying now is not one of them, somewhere mid 4000 points XJO is a start of DCA in.. Low 4000 is a "definite" DCA in.. Below that, well bet the house.

Look at the historical return .. December 2019. "If only I had bought at 4500 xjo during the gfc" .. This is maybe you .. don't be that guy.

 

The markets are

The 200 Day moving average (200MA) is seen to be a very strong long term trend, many professional traders will use this figure aswell as computer algorithms (algos).

The 50MA for example is used for a more short term trend.

These can all be used on any timeline, for example if you are looking at a 1hour chart (each bar represents 1hour of trading) then the 200MA would show you the last 200 hours moving average and so on.

Here's an example of the Dow Jones as of right now, you can see the price movement and below it is the 200MA, now I have this chart set on weekly, so the 200MA represents 200 weeks moving average which is a very longterm timeline (4 years average worth of price movements per data point).
This shows you that regardless of the volatility currently, the 4 yearly average price is in an uptrend. Even during the GFC it only went sideways pretty much.



However, lets look at a shorter timeline, like the hourly. This will show you the short term trend currently pointing down. (The DOW is toast at the moment)



So just by looking at the 200MA you can clearly see the trend. This is all super basic stuff but for most people all you have to know is how to find the trend and then just follow it. If you are investing for the long term, then follow the long term trend. Traders will even use the 1m and 5m charts because they are looking at very short term trends.

If you want to pick the bottoms/tops, then you can start looking into support lines, Fibonacci levels, Higher Highs/Higher Lows etc... There is soooo much more to it then just this.

I hope that's helped in terms of determining what the current trend is, if it saves someones bacon then I'm glad, otherwise if this seems like nonsense then just ignore it and move on

 

I agree with buying when you see value, but tell me this, is Qantas good value now that its 50%+ down? How can you tell the value when the fleet is grounded and nobody is flying?

If you bought QAN in 2010 when the rest of the markets started to pick up, it would have taken until 2017 to break even.

If you followed the long term trend (and did nothing else), it would show you straight away that QAN was not a long term buy until end of 2014/early 2015. It would also show you that QAN is now a sell as it's broken through the 200MA on the weekly. Whereas how many shareholders are still holding and thinking that this is just a temporary dip?

 

It not buying anything because it went down 30-40 or 50%
you need to target quality that will survive the crisis and come out the other side better than before
with their competitor possibly wiped out and they in driver seats.

 

Qantas will survive as they have great cash on hand, 3billion from memory and even if they ground all aircraft for 12 months they will be ok. I even went over virgins financials yesterday and they can also survive a year, but in a much worse position currently, but if their new ceo can continue to do what he’s doing then eventually it will turn around. Their shares are almost penny stocks, one could take a gamble and may pay off well in a couple years. I am gonna buy both for sure.

But it’s definitely not the time to buy airlines yet, they will continue to fall, wait till domestic travel gets banned/grounded, shares will fall further

 

Yeah agreed, Qantas will survive this but at the moment there is no floor, especially as you noted with more bad news to come.

The business' that do make it out the other side will be super strong in the years to come so there will definitely be opportunities to create wealth.

I do feel for those who were heavily invested especially nearing retirement, my folks are in that category now (they only have super, but looks like there won't be that much left of it now)

 

I’m hopeful and positive this will turn around within 2 years. Maybe not back to highest peaks but a good strong rebound for sure

 

It will but this classic saying applies to me lol "The market can stay irrational a lot longer than you can stay solvent".

Those seriously cashed up right now are in a unique position to set themselves up for life if they don't overly screw up the timing.

 

I had a sale ready for June, around 1.5m, doesn’t look likely now so gonna keep it. Unfortunately I’ll only have 210k to spend now, Already put in 20k a little early and should be down 20% by today’s closure. Will buy a little more today.
I have enough cash to survive 1-2 years with no income coming in, hope that’s enough

 

I wou

l wouldn't buy QAN bc I don't like airline stocks but the banks, gee they look cheap, coronavirus or not.

 

CBA is looking good still.
NAB and WBC are looking horrible at the moment.

But it looks like prices just want to keep going down, theres not a lot of support.