Mt Druie Suburbs - revisited 2019....

You're talking about the burnt out one?

 

Apparently this one sold in Brisbane yesterday for nearly double that price:

Is this Australia's worst house? Tiny dilapidated shack from the 1920s goes up for auction - and buyers aren't even allowed to look inside before they make a bid

What a beauty!!! NOT!!!!

Told you Brisbane is gonna boom

 

No but the burnout one sold for good money considering its a knock down

 

It did! But I've seen stranger things.

 

You are in wrong thread!

 

Nah, I just wanted to show what people were paying for rubbish in Brisbane vs what they are paying for rubbish in Mt Druie .

 

Missed it? Called it in 2010.

The Mother of All Booms is Coming??

 

Yep ,@sash made that call and also in the same post this call.

So...what happens once this booms happens....just make sure you are not holding the can in 2014-2015..

If you keep making calls year after year you will get some right and then you pump up the one's that you got right.

People have short memories.

 

Isn't that what the economists do - reforecast?

 

Merhaba...El Turko.......ling time no talkies.

For the record...I made a call only once...sure I was off by about 1.5-2 year...but no one can always get it right on the head. I only made this forecast once. ......now time has clearly shown that the Sydney market peaked in 2016. In some areas prices have indeed come down to 2015 prices...though not.

I also said that 2018-2019 would be the year you would see the worst carnage in Sydney..it was the case. I reckon there is still another couple of months. But Morrisons FHB has put a floor on mid to lower end prices...but despite all the murmurings of banks loosening serviceability...the impact is only 10-15% more...but some other areas have tightened...so the impact is not as much.

What was a real surprise even to me...was how well the Central Coast held up this time. Typically...this rockets down...this did not happen....that is because of the retirement of Baby Boomers. Mt Druitt's drop was like clockwork....it is still dropping. Why would people buy there when there are better areas for little more...

I have made my wealth from property by making bold calls based on cycles and facts. Would love to hear what you have done. What I find on the forum is people are great internet critics..but when asked to provide evidence on their success they go quiet or hide behind the veil of privacy. No one needs the exact details but evidence would be go to ensure that you have some cred!

 

Could not agree with you more....400k will Brisbane will still buy you a okay house in places like Strathpine! And that ain't no Druie.

Mate thanks for painting a target on my back....now every troll will be on my backside... ....the bear is on you next time.....

 

Yes - with every day that passes, new information and data is available, it would be crazy not to update forecasts.

And most forecasts are about direction, not precision.
And if they aren’t, they should be read & interpreted that way.

The real skill in forecasting is identifying & interpreting macro, micro, demographic, regulatory, financial, tax, political, social trends, etc etc etc trends, changes, events.
And sentiment.

Then deciding what does this mean for the property market?

The 2010 forecast gave reasons on why there was a boom coming.

I’m thankful to those that not only go through the above exercise, but have the courage to then publicise their forecasts.

Courageous, because there is one thing all forecasts have in common: they are wrong, the difference between a good and bad forecast is how wrong it turned out to be. That’s why I say forecasting is about direction not precision.

Courageous, because there will always be others that love to point out a forecast was wrong.

So a top was called 4/5 years out.
Were there any changes during a period of 4/5 years that would warrant reforecasting the magnitude & timing of the peak? Sure there were.

I believe if you look at the Property Chat & Somerset posts over time it’s been pretty much on the mark. Calling a boom, then calling a top, then looking for a bottom.

As a live example ...
Less posting on Post a Bargain Sydney 2019 [NSW]
More posting on This Housing Downturn is Over

Ironically, every forecast for the last federal election was wrong ... except for the one made based on social media.
Meet the expert who correctly predicted the election result using social media and why the traditional pollsters got it so wrong
Fluke?
Also correctly predicted Trump, Brexit.

I see a lot of similarity between the analysis of social media calling an election, and measuring what’s posted here on Propertychat to form a view on the future in property.
@See Change used to refer to this as The Somersoft Leading Indicator and more recently The PChat score.

My point is there is great value in reading the forecasts of others that are based on fundamentals, data, analysis. Read it, interpret it, then form your own view.
And not get too hung up (or nit pick years later with the benefit of hind sight) on the precision of the timing ... focus on the direction of the forecast.

 

Ditto....and your point to tailor to your circumstances....I spread my risk as I was holding more in Sydney Land Tax would have killed my CF and rents are dropping. If I had bought 2 houses in the Druie on top of my current holdings...I would be holding a profit of 160-250k...but my yearly land tax bill would be killer 20k plus....it is already about 13k. By buying on Central Coast and Wollongong I got the same if not better growth (200- 300k) ...but land value is lower and better bang for buck. People don't comprehend holding costs...

 

- Imminent connection between M1 and M2. It’s just become “closer” to Sydney.
- Gosford revitalisation ... work in progress. Waterfront rejuvenation. Lifestyle & amenity.
- Jobs - eg, ATO & state gov jobs relocated to Gosford.
- Infastructure ... $0.5bn hospital upgrade, construction jobs & then ongoing jobs in the hospital.
- Population growth.

Central Coast did well in the boom, but not as frothy & toppy as northern areas of Sydney eg Hills & up to Schofields, down to Ryde.

Growth was cyclical but had some changes in fundamentals as above that underpinned the growth ... value was re-set relative to Sydney.

 

I also heard that the media only seriously looked at the two party preferred not the approval ratings of Shorty and Scomo. Do people vote for their preferred party or think that they are voting for a PM (& don't really understand the difference)?

It's interesting to attend conferences where the presenters include economists. You get their feedback first hand, the opportunity to raise questions and understand their reasoning as to what is happening and the trends.

If they're not currently paying Land Tax or being hit by differential taxing (eg. Non-resident or absentee landlord etc) it's blissfully ignored until there's an unexpected bill.

 

Then here is another one for you
'Brisbane's worst house' sells under the hammer for $253,000

 

The buy who bought it is dill....there is at least 50-60k worth of work.

Another person who thinks they will make a motza in Logan......

 

Yes that is correct.

 

If that is how people invest...that is madness....

 

I'm not familiar with the area, but the article states that the median price in the area is $380k. It also says

Based on him doing the work himself, which it looks like from the article, the cost of doing the work will be less than $50k. From the photos there is patching of walls, painting, flooring, kitchen, bathroom. The kitchen & bathroom is where the money is....but if you can do it yourself, can be done quite cheaply.