Mt Druie Suburbs - revisited 2019....

Mostly real estate agents.

Some of the ones in Sutherland are ultra keen...

 

Your post said you had the conversations with ppl from the meet up last week...

 

You were one an there were 2 others...

 

Tag them in, it would be good to hear their observations...

 

No, you are right....I don't jump in with bold 'Predictions' as thread starters. But I have said on more than one occasion PRIOR to 2016, that there would be a pull back, as always, not only in Mt Druitt, but other areas as well.

Again.....I KNOW it has taken a hit, but my question remains. Why is Mt Druitt the ONLY area that you, specifically, start threads on how bad the situation is. It's like you're a one man band trying to alert the world to the doom & gloom that is Mt Druitt.

You can't seem to answer that.

 

Dems....how Boganonics works..... have no need to justify myself....chow!

 

Its because he is burning that he didn't make any money in Sydney's boom and especially in the western Suburbs. I've said to Sash many times before that people have tripled or quadrupled their money in the west throughout the last boom depending on when they bought in. And since he's been down ramping Sydney property since the old forum he's completely missed the mother of all capital growth opportunities and is just bitter about it. Simple really.

If he had bought back in the old days when he was down ramping Sydney he would have made an absolute motsa and would actually be retired by now.

 

For all we know you don't have any of this...and a troll....as for making a motsa in Sydney what goes up must come down...so a lot of people would have made 65%....but by this time this cycle completes...they have only made 45%....as markets correct.

People who have been in the game long enough know this...not people who claim to have done this and that...but have no evidence to show this....lots of the people who claimed it would be different in Sydney have disappeared...I recall this happening last cycle also....

 

Aha......so you CAN answer it, you just don't want to. Ok then.

Nah, he can retire now, anyway.

Haha, when you've seen this a few times, it's good to take some off the table at the high points.

 

Doesn't stop someone being bitter. Another few million in someones pocket can cause bitterness in anyone especially if they were down ramping Sydney yonks before the boom even started and to actually see the boom happen right on front of them - yeah that's gonna cut deep. Very very deep.

 

Get help.

 

I don’t look up to @sash i just like to acknowledge that he was right and you were wrong. You can have 20 rolexes but seems you still have a lot to learn on the property game. I’d listen to sadh next time round you might learn something.

 

Wow! A lot of animosity towards sash in this thread.

Sash is just using Mount Druitt as an outer suburb example. In typical cycles it will be the inner, middle and outer ring that boom and in busts it's the reverse order. So far it's been inner Sydney that has taken the vast majority of the hit. However, this will inevitably spread as when the inner city reduces people will start paying less for middle ring, which then turns into people paying less for outer ring.

Food for thought. When Logan peaked it was worth the same amount as Mount Druitt. Now Mount Druitt is valued at almost twice the price. Are people in Mount Druitt earning twice as much as Logan residents!? Mount Druitt and surrounds will fall...the question is by how much!

 

Hahahaha why would I listen to him when he missed the mother of all capital growth opportunities? If I had listened to his advice a long long time ago and NOT buy any houses in the western suburbs of Sydney I'd be down over 2.5 million!!!!!! I'm sure many many people on here who were talking to him in the somersoft days are regretting listening to his advice big time. Once in a lifetime opportunity lost to actually significantly change your life forever.

You can listen to him and his advice. The only person who I listen to is myself. I am the only person in the world that is looking out for my own best interests. If your basing your investment choices on a random person on here giving advice good luck to you.

 

No animosity from me, just curious as to why he specifically picks Mt Druitt every time.

You're wrong! This cycle Mt Druitt started moving first, and I believe Sash has a reason for all the doomy Mt Druitt threads other than just posting it as an example. It doesn't really bother me why he does it, but I do like to point out when he, and others, are just plain wrong on the area. The simple fact is that you can never know an area like a local. Well, a local that keeps an eye on it, that is.

It's already fallen.......has it stopped? Maybe, maybe not. I think there's a little more pain in store, simply because people can't get finance more than anything else.

 

Sash has been talking about Mount Druitt falling since threads dating to 2015.
It didnt eventuate in 2015 2016 Q3 2018 he became right market eased. Cycle finished.

When you are 3 years to early you are wrong.

It like the boy who cries wolf.

Howard Marks arguably in the top of his field is quoted as saying.

“Being too far ahead of your time is indistinguishable from being wrong.”

 

That is what professional investors do...they see 3 years out.....if you made your decisions in late 2017/2018 it would have been to late ...and most probably be too late.

That is why some succeed and others fail...because you need to get away from the herd....of sheep.

Lots of stories who bought in late 2016/2017 and even 2018...it has not turned out well.

Same thing what is happening with Brisbane...it is moving...in 3 years....it will be too late as the market will have topped out....last time Brisbane topped out was 2008...so it is long overdue.

Similar things happening in Adelaide it topped out in 2007.....so by 2022 it will be over...that is 15 years.....from last top...

 

I ran a sophisticated analysis based on DSR data in 2015 which pointed to Mt. Druitt units as the best investment available in NSW. I spent three weeks making offers on 2bed room units around Luxford road but got outbid by other buyers who were paying up to 370-380k. I gave up and focused my efforts elsewhere.

4 years down the road, similar units are now selling for around $300k.

 

2015 wasn't the time to be buying.

 

So sophisticated that you knew in 2015:

1. APRA would change the landing landscape and keep imposing tougher borrowing like they havent in recent history.
2. Chinese government would curb cash outflow limiting ability for Chinese investors to bring funds to Australia.
3. NSW government would introduce additional stamp duty tax on foreign investors
4. Liberal government would introduce Royal commission into the bank sector which would curb bank lending and increase scrutiny unheard of in the last 2 decades .

If you knew this in 2015 you are prophet not an investor.