Mount Druitt?? Or where to invest..$550,000

I

"ll bet most bought in lower socio Logan...thus my question....

 

I honestly know nothing about Logan. I could afford within 10km and that's where I bought and I think likely will have the quickest returns.

 

Nah guv...youse are wrong some gubner...god rest his soul...told me its all apples in Logan lower socio...he did guv....its a gem guv...know what i mean?

 

Can I ask you what a good rental return would be for You.?

Sydney not growing for 10 years is a pipe dream. Some missed out and bitter.
40k met migration figure is probably full of misleading rubbish as well.

Do some research. People on here have vested interest in Brisbane Hobart.

Core logic extract below :

Annual Net Overseas Migration Into NSW And Vic Hits A Record High

In terms of the raw number of population increase, Victoria and New South Wales remain well in front with increases over the past year of 144,357 persons and 121,794 persons respectively. The population increase in Queensland (79,580) was also quite strong while it was more moderate in South Australia (10,494), Western Australia (21,403), Tasmania (3,289), Northern Territory (365) and Australian Capital Territory (6,833). New South Wales and Victoria accounted for 68.6% of the total increase in national population over the past year.

 

Hmmm......past data.....like looking through the rear vision mirror...this is the same diatribe some other yahoo in the forum tried...they kept looking at the past history and missed what was actually happening on the ground.

The data shows population is moving away from Sydney and parts of Melbourne dems the facts..

 

2016/2017 dats seems very accurate.

Only better data would be assumption or presumption. Or simply guessing.
Please select which one you are using.

Please provide source for Your Data.

 

Myself...that is how I got the outer Melbourne/Geelong suburbs boom right...there is also looking at past data ...but you have to extrapolate this.

For example...a lot of talk about Bondi being bullet proof....last time it tanked so did some parts of the Eastern suburbs...lack of experience..and by the data comes out it is too late.

 

Don't mean to appear confused, but is that the investor, or the tenant?

 

Like most forumites, I would suggest SE QLD and as close to Brissie CBD as possible.

I believe you can still get a standalone house with a good size block in areas like Everton Park, Everton Hills/Arana Hills/Ferny Hills area which are still middle ring of Brisbane with close to 5% gross yield. Might need to do some touch up work but still a no brainer in comparison with the yield you get in Sydney currently.

 

I think I need a translator....

 

Absolutely, mt druitt is still an option. The magic 5.2% yield is still possible out there.

Many on this forum will tell you to go interstate but won't tell you the rental market there is not as strong as Mt druitt. Sydney is still the king ...

 

There's also a thread on this forum about Auburn and quite a few see that as a good long-term investment given it's location between Sydney and Parramatta as well as good access to transport. With your budget you're probably only looking at apartments though, so yields' not great in the immediate future and CG not spectacular in the near term either.

 

If you are set on Sydney. Cambridge Gardens/Park and Werrington(likely fibro) would fit your budget .

 

Too early for Perth - Yes
Hobart questionable ?
According to who ? Tasmania is changing , though some don't see that and at the moment it's booming before Brisbane . At the moment Hobart is the only place I've seen mentioned in the mainstream media as expecting strong growth ( melb ok , but getting close to top so no go here ) . central / middle ring have gone up around 20 % but outer ring has only just passed it's previous peak .

Brisbane middle or outer rim . We went goodna / ipswich and up around ten percent . We would be up higher percentage if we'd gone closer , but the holding costs are higher so we couldn't have bought as much . The APRA changes have changed that equation to a degree , but percentage wise in this cycle the outer rim has further to go .

If you're concerned about vacanie s, Hobart has the lowest vacancy by a long way .

Seriously ....

We've come close to getting 100 % increase in capital on four properties in Sydney over the last years ( Mosman and Manly ) . Very Happy Sydney investor , but having lived in Sydney on and off since 1969 I don't expect any significant growth for a number of years . Previous peak was in 2003 and the current boom didn't start till 2013 so ten years of no growth seems ok for me .

I worked in Mt Druitt for 19 years and it can be a very profitable place to invest , but 5.3 % is going to be cash flow negative , so why pay to hold something for 10 years potentially see no growth .

BTW this place doesn't shift the market , but the people here are an informed group of investors and are usually there before the main stream .

Cliff

 

hey @Trustee88. I think timing the phase of the property cycle is most important factor that drives my investment decision.

My first preference would be the bottom of the market. If you buy at the bottom of the market, the greater the upswing percentage when a boom does eventuate. The down side for buying the bottom is the uncertainty, yield and waiting time.
In this sense I think Perth is at the bottom of the cycle at 5-6 Clock. It suits me fine as I don't mine waiting a while for capital gain. I have enough of existing equity but lack of serviceability to accumulate more.

The next preference is that I would choose is the early rising market. In this case Brisbane is at that stage.
It's probably at the 8-9 clock stage since it has been a upswing of 20-30% since it was bottomed out in 2013-14.
This stage you will get most capital gain in the short to medium term. Property at this stage is great for investors who are starting out, those with serviceability that needed fast equity to continue on expending their portfolio.

If nothing else, I would choose a late rising market such as Melbourne of Hobert. those markets are properly at the 9-11 clock. I think they will soon run out of steam. The gain that those cities accumulate in the next 1 to 2 years might reverse and end up back to square one or worst. If I am to invest in those markets, I would be extremely cautious.

The last one is a peak market which I believe is what Sydney is at. I think it's at 12-1pm mark. The price will pull back a bit in the short to medium term as investors become rational and see that return and capital gain does not stack up.

 

Sydney didn't cool because investors became rational.
APRA
State governments new taxes on Stamp duty (foreign investors)
Are the only reason market slowed.

Other states are simply following affordability chain.

Vic is Much like Sydney/NSW but delayed reaction due to cheaper prices and. Less state taxes.

So if /when APRA reaches its desired effect and things go backwards it will unleash the shackles and....

 

In every boom I’ve seen there has always been a trigger that stops it , and each time it’s a different one , but the trigger only works if the market is primed , ie in that irrational phase .

Even then this time around the market didn’t stop over night , and most people won’t sell until they are forced too and that going to occur when we have a significant rise in unemployment or interest rates .

Interest rates are the joker in the pack .

cliff