Crypto Monitoring the Crypto Bubble

7 day performance Cryptocurrency Market State Visualization

If this plays out similarly to the 2013 top then not only can you expect further downside, but a long grind lower over years. As I wrote at the start of the thread, when the bubble pops, only the strongest coins will make it to the other end.

 

Yup. That and crypto 20.

 

Deus adiuva nos omnes

 

Looking increasingly likely that the bottom could be in for the bear market... thoughts?

Turns out the start of this thread was very timely (within a few days of the Bitcoin peak). Wish I'd taken action with my own holdings to sell then and buy back now

I topped up a couple of times on the way down and more recently, now holding some SKY, NANO, BTC & IOTA.

 

All my holdings are in IOTA. Of all the tech it’s the one I most believe in.
You would have no doubt read this:
https://www.financemagnates.com/cry...r-will-reward-data-sharing-drivers-with-iota/

 

Don't you guys know it's been all over?
BTC at over AUD$9K today, complete pipe dream just a few years back.

 

I hold more IOTA (in value) than I do the others combined. Of all the crypto tokens in the market I think their vision, real world use cases, corporate connections, team and lack of transaction fees makes them the best bet in the space.

I bought Bitcoin, because it is more decentralised.. if something happened to the IOTA Foundation I am not sure IOTA development would continue, but if some members of the Bitcoin Core team disappeared I think there would be people ready to step into their roles. Bitcoin is my hedge against IOTA failing, but the crypto space continuing to thrive.

 

Bitcoin's price is back to where it was at the start of this thread, yet the level of forthiness in the market (examples in the original post) is nearly non-existent in comparison to December 2017. The price probably has much higher to climb from here over the next 1-2 years.

 

Everyone should hold at least 1-2% of their net worth in bitcoin. If it replaces gold and 25x your NW just increased by 50-100%.

If not, no biggie.

 

Just for a laugh, remember this bold prediction of BTC to $500,000 by July 2020:

 

He’s probably a year off. Might get close next year

 

25x? Sounds good to me.

 

What signals are people using to predict the top?
If this cycle is driven more by instos rather than unsophisticated normies, what signals could you se to predict when instos are nearing end of their buying/cash reserves?

 

IMO even if instos have been doing some of the heavy lifting at lower prices it will still be a retail blow off top that marks the end of the cycle, while continuing to be pumped by the instos as they reduce their exposure.

https://twitter.com/BobLoukas/status/1339324639940665354

 

Shitttt..

Coinbase to Suspend XRP Trading Following SEC Suit Against Ripple - CoinDesk

 

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe...ested-at-spanish-airport-20201007-p562n1.html

Internet security pioneer John McAfee, pictured in 2015, is accused of evading taxes and failing to file tax returns in the US

He is alleged to have earned millions in income from promoting cryptocurrencies, as well as through consulting work, speaking engagements, and selling the rights to his life story for a documentary.

 

Grayscale for example is open ended. They will only stop buying when the investors stop coming. Occasionally they temporarily halt new investments when it gets a bit heated.

Currently I believe they buy 3x the amount that is mined.

A good way to look for tops is to see when coins are moving to exchanges. People transfer when they are preparing to sell.

Currently coins are moving off exchanges into cold long term storage.

If you're really interested, check out https://santiment.net/ for very useful data.

In general I think there's a shift from hype trading into accumulation happening as people realise how scarce bitcoin will be. In the future it will be extremely hard to acquire a whole bitcoin if the active market is only a small percentage of total due to most being locked up in cold storage.