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Migration trends - Do they provide the best clue?

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by standtall, 13th Jul, 2016.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Migration Trends over last few years.

    Snip20160713_6.png
    Plus this one including the net state migration

    Snip20160713_7.png


    Possible Implications:

    • Sydney has lost considerable population to other states (mainly QLD and VIC) but it's share of new migrants has been increasing steadily hence Sydney dwelling prices will continue to perform well.
    • Melbourne might actually do better than Sydney in next 2-3 years. Most immigrants are in the position of buying a place after 2-3 years of arrival so given that Melbourne is seeing increases in both net state and net overseas migration, I won't be surprised if Melbourne came closer to bridging the historical gap in prices.
    • Brisbane is not doing that bad in terms of migration though overseas migration is not growing as well as Sydney and Melbourne. If economic conditions remain stable, Brisbane will continue to grow but a lot more modest growth than the top 2 capitals.
    • Both Adelaide and Perth aren't looking good. Adelaide seemed to have increased their overseas migration intake but it seems like people aren't sticking around due to poor job prospects and hence growing net migration losses to other states. Perth is declining on both migration figures and most likely will continue to decline.
     
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  2. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    A massive clue, which I have mentioned before, evidence in the pudding, Melbourne the "little darling" in the property game as far as performance goes, has been for some time.

    MTR:)
     
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  3. Cactus

    Cactus Well-Known Member

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    And like I said in your other thread, I think will be for 2-3 years.
     
  4. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    Last Sydney cycle, western sydney did not see down trend (stat experts, correct me if I am wrong).
    The reason that I figure out was affordability and migration.

    The same trend we are seeing in Melbourne. Outskirts are still affordable and growing. I dont see the slowdown in affordable areas either.

    Would have invested more if I had money. :(
    Rather, I'd say it is way better to invest in Melbourne than in Adelaide or Brisbane (no offense to people who have gained there):)

    Another good point about Melbourne (unless you go North) is that even though you are going away from CBD, you might be going near to the water and still buying at less than half of the CBD's median unlike places nearby Sydney. So you can focus on good living. :)

    Also North is somewhat less targeted and still affordable if u look closer (small homes) with yields nearly 4.5-5% and scope of further expansion (lot of land though and already established and good priced regional areas).

    Regards
     
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  5. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Happy days to those investing in Melbourne.
     
  6. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    i would somewhat agree and disagree with this.
    I would rather go for the right type and areas in brisbane which is similar $ to mid-outer melbourne.
    If its not in the right areas in brisbane, yes id agree in that id rather go for mid-outer melbourne.
     
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  7. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Me too. And something i can add value to for sure.
     
  8. UrbanDingo

    UrbanDingo Member

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    Melbourne has more prospects no doubt but numbers are hard to work out unless you pay like 20% deposit........I am going to open in outer east and outer south.....properties are selling at least 50000 more than listing price plus you have to add closing costs...........if one has more deposit no doubt Melbourne is a place........but I think yield wise it is bit struggle........what I saw on ground market is hot........one can wait and invest.......might be wrong.....
     
  9. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    I'm certainl bo statistician so please correct me if this inference is incorrect... but... shouldn't these numbers be weighted against the state populatiobs as % figures?

    Wouldn't that give a more accurate story? Don't grt me wrong, I am sure that % numbers will still make Melbourne/VIC shine as the darling of the lot, but I'd be curious to see the migratiob volume numbers reflected as a % of each state pop. I.e. TAS and SA both have net 'positive' numbers overall though very low. But they also have much smaller populations to the other ESB states. I.e. I think SA is 1.6m compared to QLD's 4m. TAS is about 0.55m people.
     
  10. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Well said, you points are spot on

    Also the Sydney booming market started in Syds west due to immigration, professionals from India residing in this area due to affordability.

    This is unusual because past booms in major capital cities generally always started in the inner city and then we got the ripple effect, we are just not seeing this and in the main immigration is changing trends combined with other factors.
     
    Last edited: 15th Jul, 2016
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  11. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Same to those who captured the boom cycle in Sydney, though Melb is like one of those ever ready batteries, never stops:)
     
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  12. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Well said.

    As much as we like to hold Chinese buyers responsible for high prices, I think it's actually migrants from India, Pakistan, Bangladesh & Sri Lanka who have a major impact on the market.
    • They like to save and invest in housing
    • They will always have deposit money sorted (parents, wife's parents, wife's gold jewellery, a wealthy uncle)
    • They value education and will chase good schools
    • They are used to some very expensive housing from home and still see Australian prices as bargain buys
    • They largely work in financial sector & IT and hence more aware about the market in general
    I know many families who bought a unit in Westmead 6-7 years ago, then upgraded to a house in Baulkham Hills and now looking to buy on the North shore next.

    If you want to predict next boom suburbs in any capital city, just follow the progression of migrants from subcontinent.
     
  13. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    Now thats something I wont disagree on (apart from thebother stuff you talk about). :):p
     
  14. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    I'm in Melbourne now and just watched the news reporting a projection of massive increase in Melbourne, Geelong, Ballarat and Bendigo. Experts worry about Victoria's capacity to cope with housing, infrastructure etc. Great!
     
  15. Cactus

    Cactus Well-Known Member

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    The investor in me agrees, great!

    The melbournian in me says uh oh!

    But the investor in me wins.
     
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  16. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    The investor in me hooray.

    The sydneysider in me hehe

    Winning!
     
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