Migration of population within Australia

Hi all.

What is the general trend you are seeing regarding the movement of population within Australia (e.g. movement of people from one state to another), and movement from cities to regionals?

Secondly, is there somewhere someone can point me to showing access to this type of data?

Cheers

 

The "general trend?"

People migrating from Southern Australia to Northern Australia.

The ABS has recently published data that confirms the above.

At a micro level...Public School enrollments will be published in Q1 2021.

 

Have a look at this thread..

Are more people likely to move to regional areas?

 

Check this out:

Regional internal migration estimates, provisional, June 2020

Key statistics

• 85,500 people moved interstate in the three months to the end of June 2020.
• 14,800 less people moved interstate compared with the June 2019 quarter.
• Capital cities had a net loss of 10,500 people from internal migration, the largest quarterly net loss on record.

 

I don't think there's any point forecasting trends till COVID is done and we're back to 'normal'.

Extrapolating what will happen in the next 3, 5, 10 years based upon the last 8 months is well.....

Remember when people were saying around 2009 that we would slide into a 1933 equivalent depression, or Perth and WA being Australia's premier city due to a decades long mining boom, or that Sydney prices would drop by 30-40% post 2017?

Nothing lasts. Change is the only constant.

 

Jul-sep20 data for medicare address changes to be released by the abs in feb 21.

For longer term predictions, you probably have to go what the policy makers are using.
You can google the planning documents for each state.

I.e. Vic gov is planning for a $9mill population by 2050 mostly from net overseas migration. Absolutely crazy.

 

https://www.smh.com.au/politics/fed...te-coronavirus-lockdowns-20201204-p56kq6.html

This was from the federal government

 

Thats a very low amount for a population

 

I follow @petewargent's blog - he regularly shows these types of numbers - latest numbers are in his most recent posts

 

good stats here: big moves to regional and Greater Brisbane in particular this year

Regional internal migration estimates, provisional, June 2020

 

ABS released updated population data today for the June quarter. Note the data i quote below is not seasonally adjusted (original from ABS). Population

The data seems to say what a lot have been talking about - lots of people leaving Melbourne and Sydney, lots moving to Queensland, and Perth/Adelaide relatively flat. Given the strict lockdowns that were in place at the time, it will be interesting to see how the data panned out for the rest of 2020.

Though all states took a hit on international migration, Victoria was the only one notably compounded with a change in direction of interstate migration. Every other state actually saw an improvement. Note this is June data, before the VIC second wave and additional lockdown restrictions.

 

Its minor numbers. In a cooler period (partly seasonal), In a pandemic. To escape lockdown ? etc...

These arent big numbers. Net 6,800 people out of 25,000,0000. Longer term trends ?
6800 out of QLD's 5m is a faction of 1%.

And we all know QLDers cant count. Other than how many origins they won / lost.

 

How does this sound?

Longer term trends: Boomer's cashing out and shifting to lifestyle locations
Uncertain trends: Impact of WFH and policy response from Government
Potential short term trends that may or may not reverse:
- people who went up north for holidays during the southern winter and have been stuck there due to boarder closures (may decide to stay or may not depending on work situation/flexibility)
- uni students from out of town that have moved back home
- hospitality workers from out of town that have moved back home
- those from out of town wanting to experience the big city life that have moved back home

Note the ABS stats just capture Medicare address changes - not everyone moving out would equate to a new homebuyer or renter in the other state.

 

Ok, I’m sticking my neck out and also putting my money there.

I believe COVID will see a new trend form. Some People will not be looking for homes close to work or transport and will be looking for affordable lifestyle properties. I for instance live on one acre 30 mins by train from Wynyard or 20 mins bus or drive to Parramatta and to most people that see a large single level home, established gardens, our own running clear creek and a 16 car lock up garage...It’s Paradise. but it would cost about $3 million.

With WFH, people can buy in a new estate a one acre lot to build whatever they want, with phone power, a running creek and 20 acres of your own community land to ride horses, motor bike, bush walk that is not fenced from the National Park which adjoins Sydney’s longest river. It’s two minutes to put your boat in or 1 hour for the occasional day to the city and much less to the other suburbs.

These one acre blocks are around $675,000 and are favourably priced by Sydney standards. Compared to 900 square metre blocks for $1.5 million about 25 mins closer in.
I’m buying about 56 acres to try out my luck, it should yield 11 blocks.

 

It could finally be the boom QLD has been waiting for???

Only downside I see is China pulling pin on coal??? Maybe just a short lived hiccup??

 

If Queensland has massive debt and highest unemployment and China does not want to buy coal from us, plus there is flooding, doesn’t it make The Queensland a fragile business case ?

 

Yes, I mentioned China not buying coal will hurt Qld, unless they find other markets to replace this el pronto
Also AUD is soaring, this effects exports

This is all new and Nothing is really making too much sense at the moment.

Is it government stimulus Keeping us floating? After March perhaps we will find out More, smoke and mirrors, dont know???

Low interest rate environment is certainly helping

In WA we have iron ore at high record prices And government is Throwing money at infrastructure and housing grants. Property prices are starting to rise. China not pulled the pin on this yet

interesting times for OZ

 

Retirees moving to QLD,
People that cant affrod NSW and VIC moving to Queensland. Sounds like an interesting mix.

 

Queensland had the biggest influx of migrations of all states in 2020 and that trend is expected to continue for the next several years 2021-2025. It offers a great more relaxed lifestyle with currently somewhat affordable housing.

And now with working from home being adopted by many many companies it makes even more sense. I'm in Sydney and I'm even thinking of relocating to Brisbane now and just working from home 100% of the time. My company is OK with that.

I feel like the ppl around me talking about moving to Brisbane for a sea change has increased exponentially in the last 6 months or so. This is from work colleagues, gym friends, school friends and family.

 

No beaches worth talking about in Bris though. The ones in Moreton Bay are pretty average compared to the typical Syd beach.

If its just about affordability, that wouldn't be reason enough (for me) to move.