Mid cycle slow down (forced this time)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Codie, 1st Apr, 2020.

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  1. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    I found this podcast to be quite a calming voice in the midst of a lot of uncertainty

    All though we are experiencing a crisis most people won’t see in a life time, And it’s easy to get so short sighted, I’m needing to be reminded that real estate over hundreds of years has performed, time & time again.

    He refers to the power in the land and a couple authors that have been studying markets for over 200odd years in Europe/USA. Through wars, crisis, famine even.

    No doubt we are in for a rough ride short term, but I believe with stimulus and different monetary policies this event will
    be a small blip and we will be able to see it fuel the next one

    Brings me back to the point, of are we in a mid cycle slow down? With the best yet to come over the next 6-7yrs? I know a few on here share a similar view and if it’s the case, the next 24 months may be the best buying opportunities we see in decades as well.

    ‎The Pumped On Property Show: BONUS: Mid Cycle Slow Down - Are We In It? on Apple Podcasts
     
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  2. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    My gut tells me when this is all over and the economy is stable, we will see some massive bull runs like no other over the last many decades.
     
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  3. Closet

    Closet Well-Known Member

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    It could happen like that but is more event driven than cycle...I like those p on p podcastd they are a straight forward bunch of guys with some good insight from time to time. I don't mind their granny flat strategies either very low risk. Once things stabilise maybe it will be Brisbane time to shine in 2023 onwards :) but it will take quite a while for employment to fall and confidence to rise..but..falls for sure in the short term and buying opportunities in the next 12 months...
     
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  4. The_Billy

    The_Billy Well-Known Member

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    I was having this chat with a friend also. Have a gut feeling you are right !

    Australia is a haven, we have everything we are on the other side of the world a lot of eyes may be looking here once the dust settles.
     
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  5. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    The source isn't biased though lol.
     
  6. Leeroy93

    Leeroy93 Well-Known Member

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    I prefer to focus on the positive. Whilst risk management is important, worrying about the next major collapse/crash/recession stifles the most important aspect of wealth generation - buying good assets, consistently. A proactive mindset also ensures you continue to move forward even in times like this and opens your mind to new opportunities. It also makes you feel better in general, like smiling more often :)
     
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  7. chunho01

    chunho01 Well-Known Member

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    The whole world is saying stuff is going down, but is it really? So far it only dipped like 5% or so, no?
     
  8. Perky29

    Perky29 Well-Known Member

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    I respect the work of Phil Anderson and this guy as well.
     
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  9. Traveller99

    Traveller99 Well-Known Member

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    Great find. Thanks for sharing.
     
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  10. JohnPropChat

    JohnPropChat Well-Known Member

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    Essentially saying, cheap credit and stimulus will fuel asset price growth that is not necessarily sustainable.
     
  11. MTR

    MTR Material Girl Premium Member

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    It will all be dependent on how our economy recovers, no jobs..... then no bull run regardless of low interest rates
     
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  12. wilso8948

    wilso8948 Well-Known Member

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    I watch some of these guy's content. I do get a bit over 30yo trying to tell people what the market will entail with all their 'experience'. I'm the same age and certainly don't pretend to know what will/won't happen.

    Also he lost some cred with me the other day using a whiteboard and wrote "Cubin" when speaking about the missile crisis.
     
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  13. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Like anything I guess you have to take the good from the bad and form our own opinions.

    I think it’s more about phill Anderson and Fred Harrison’s study that interests me, land studies over 200-300yrs if pretty hard to go against. (Not that I have sighted, or read the books yet)

    These guys have credibility and a good track record compared to some of our modern day predictors.

    I agree but also think ben looks to others and then repeats rather than making his own claims.
     
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  14. John_BridgeToBricks

    John_BridgeToBricks Buyer's Agent Business Member

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    I have read Phil Anderson's book about the 18 year cycle. I actually think the mid cycle correction happened back in 2018. I don't think it is going to happen this time.

    What is happening now is not a market drop, it is a market cessation.

    My guess is that the supply will dry up and auctions won't be held such that price data will be rendered completely unreliable.

    Properties on the market right now will be sold for discounts. But then the music will stop, and there will be nothing to buy.

    I think it is hard to see massive price drops with the combination of unprecedented stimulus plus no properties to buy. I think after a period of brief deflation, there will be a lot of inflation once the lock-down ends, and actually it will be then when the pain begins.

    For those on this forum who think prices can't go up forever don't understand how monetary inflation works. Prices can and do go up forever in a central bank system. But the price of real estate can't rise faster than other prices forever.

    The one thing that gives me pause for thought is that immigration has completely stopped.

    But ultimately the money printing will prevail.
     
  15. Ummm

    Ummm Well-Known Member

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    There will be those that don't need to sell, however a portion of property turnover would be deceased estates/divorces and forced sales.
    You will still have those with secure employment who are buying/selling in the same market, where if they have plenty of equity it won't be an issue.
    There will obviously be a reduction in sales, but they won't cease. Unfortunately any new valuations we still be based on what few sales do go through restricting growth in future prices. Prices are set at the margin in both boom and bust markets, the buyer only needs to outbid the underbidder...
     
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  16. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    It could go multiple ways but the longer it goes the less rapid the recovery in my opinion. Don't forget the Aussie share market took a decade to recover from the GFC.

    House prices are linked to the real economy - recession, high unemployment, and low migration aren't a recipe for a boom, however if things revert to normal quickly we will begin a low interest, relaxed regulatory and highly stimulatory government environment. That is a good scenario for stronger gains.
     
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