VIC Merrifield estate Mickleham - good or bad investment?

The master plan;
MAPOVIS Mobile
(Sorry I’m on my phone this link might not work on a PC)

Wondering if you think it is a good investment, or maybe not so much?

It was one of the highest growing suburbs before the market slowed down, and now I see as a good time to negotiate cheaper prices with the developers.

Asuming I’d buy in the midtown release, which IMO is the optimal location in the estate, being within walking distance to a shopping centre, schools, and the open green space..

It seems like a pretty well planned estate? Potentially a mini satellite city?

Here are some pros:

- still affordable

- Close to the Hume freeway. 5 min drive to train station. This could be a pro or a con but it is a 40 min drive to Melbourne, it could be worse. I used to commute from Ballarat to melb, so I’m not too fussed by the distance. But that’s just my personal opinion. 32km from the city distance is probably the biggest downside, but not the worst thing ever.

- huge open green space, not sure if this will be somewhat of a botanical garden or just one huge oval or a nature reserve or what, but being within walking distance from residential area is great. This is a huge plus for me.

- within walking distance to the city centre, which should have a decent sized shopping centre and lots of surrounding business. This means jobs, social activities, etc. planned to have a waterfront walk featuring restaurants and nightlife etc.

- a bit further out is the business district which means MORE jobs. “Victoria’s largest business park” predicts to create over 35,000 jobs. This is not including the retail area I previously mentioned.

A lot of jobs means demand to live nearby, which is good for property value and rent prices.

- close to the airport

- within walking distance to schools

- strong owner / occupier area

- all houses in the estate facing main roads are on bigger blocks and must be double storey, to give the estate a more prestigious aesthetic

I can’t think of too many cons other than the distance, and whatever cons comes with being a new estate. Obviously it is a long term investment. Not sure if being so close to a business park will be a negative based off of pollution?

It’s just past cragieburn, I hate that place but just think of how fast it grew.

I’d like to hear your thoughts.
Thanks in advance!

 

No, the boat sailed a long time ago for Mickleham and I believe Trillium was the estate to get into (when you could, that is). Tried Sunbury/Diggers within 15 mins walking distance to the trains?

 

Not sure why trillium was the better estate. Also for merrifield When the boat sailed though the only land selling was at the far left of the estate, the less good area. Developers usually sell the better areas during a downturn and the Less optimal areas when the market is hot

 

Mickelham could be ok. Still a fair bit of land available? Are there any/many developments planned, new roads, new shops etc?
Could take a while for it to go up a lot in value, but it's really hard to predict.

You looking for investment only or PPOR?

 

Okay, I'm not 100% about lot prices, but going by the H&L packages, a 400sqm block is about $300k. You put a $240k 4x2x2 house on it (it'll probably cost a bit more), total $540k. There's a big assumption here your bank val will come back at $540k too, otherwise you cough up the rest too. Anyway, $540k is your turnkey price, takes 1.5 years from now (land titles are slow, so are builds). Say you're able to rent it out $380k (going by the current rents for 1x storey homes), how much are you -ve by? There are 37 properties listed on re.com.au right now, there're got to be a fair bit more coming on the market since a lot of people put deposits in around the early 2018 mark (in Merrifield and Botanical), might drive your rents down a bit more?

Here's why 2016-2017 was a great time to buy in Mickleham:
VIC - Mickleham's booming property prices
VIC - New Melbourne Suburbs North, SE, West -Observations
Forecasts and Predictions...????
New vs Old - What do you think?
VIC - Full VIC write up.

The above is not to say Mickleham won't take off again, point is it already has for now. The next boom's a while away, surely. Like I said before, look in established 'burbs, glance over at Diggers/Sunbury/St Albans, Deer Park etc).

 

I agree with @Westie the boat has sailed for a lot of new developments. I am not familiar with the west but it is the same story here in the south east. I made massive CG in new build in Clyde/Cranbourne from 2016 to 2018 and last 12 months the values have not move at all. Developers are struggling to off load their stocks now and vacancy has gone up. You are better off looking at a more established suburb in the west than Mickleham.

 

Yep, too late now, however it depends how active you want to be with your property journey. The question: is the same amount of money better invested somewhere else? I would say yes, Brisbane. The area made sense 2/3 years ago when you could build at 20/30% less than closer to the city, now not anymore. In saying this, I think Merrifield is the best in terms of potentials.