VIC Melbourne - same growth in 2018 as was seen in 2017

I was listening to a Michael Yardney podcast yesterday that suggested Melbourne up to 12km radius from the city is likely to experience the same growth as 2017. Circa 8% units and 10% houses. The arguement for this was the fundamentals; population growth, employment growth etc will continue to grow in 2018. Thoughts?

 

12km radius is pretty close in. Quite bullish but possible.

For the 12-20km radius I think definitely achievable - driven by FHBs and owner occupiers due to the drivers you mention above plus stamp duty exemptions and FHB grants.

 

I guess the 10-15km radius from the city is the ‘blue chip’ that Metropole usually go for. Initially I thought it was quite bullish but it is very true that the fundamentals and drivers still exist in Melbourne market. Interesting....
They also ‘predicted’ a 4-6% growth for Brisbane/Qld their discussion also rang true for this level of growth.

 

Borrowing money is becoming impossible.

So. Lets see

 

Out of curiosity, how much cheaper are inner Melbourne suburbs compared to Sydney inner suburbs .
Maybe also lots of Sydney investors that can not get access to finance for blue chip Sydney suburbs , but can access the blue chip Melbourne suburbs , if prices are lower.

 

Yes, putting the breaks on to some extent for sure.

 

Borrowing is much more difficult for investors - but for FHBs its very easy.

 

We are talking about 1.5m plus yeah? Credit is harder to get these days so I'll have a guess and say it won't continue like it did last year in every area. But I'm only guessing, will see what happens soon enough.

 

The podcast didn’t specify a price point but considering the radius I would assume 1.5 plus for houses. He described Melbourne’s ‘growth corridor’ as ‘speculative’ which I found interesting. You would think the growth in the 10-12km radius would have a follow on effect for the outer burbs, albeit to a lesser percentage of growth.

 

I was under the impression the follow on effect was already happening in the outer suburbs now.

 

It definitely is, i’ve Been priced out of many of them in the last 18 months. An extra long follow on effect

 

12-20km radius from Melbourne CBD, there are not many stock under $600k or even $800k for stamp duty exemption and FHB grants. You need to go 35km+ to the East or South East to find houses under $600k. North of Melbourne, probably only Broadmeadows for that price. North West probably Ardeer, St Albans (around 20-22km). South West you need to go to Point Cook, Hoppers, Werribee, etc, all more than 20km.

Of course , townhouses/units/apartments are different.

 

I went to officer - it bit crazy out there eventhough is so far out, mate bought a blocks one for his ppor and ip and decided to offload it for profit. @sash got a block there too.

I like St. Albans, after all the train works and steadily going slowly

 

It's hard to say. Melbourne is enjoying some strong population growth, but nothing out of the ordinary compared to recent years. It's also down from the recent peak and unit supply is huge. Rental yields are very low. Borrowing is very tough. That sort of growth projection is possible but seems optimistic. I think Melbourne is very much on the fence.

 

This is true. Who can even afford to borrow $$$ to get into the Melbourne market? Anyone under 30 is excluded. Large Victorian regionals don’t have this problem yet.

 

Agreed on St Albans it has become much more desirable after the two level crossing removals - and the Sunbury line will be going through the Melbourne Metro. If it were in the East it would be considered inner Melbourne. The housing stock is very good, large blocks, much nicer than the new micro block estates.

 

Except that it is not safe (I am Vietnamese so I know how safe Footscray/Sunshine/St Albans are). But hopefully it will change.

 

It is on the up. I definitely feel safer in the Sunbury line suburbs you mentioned than a lot of very desirable suburbs like Brunswick and Fitzroy.

 

I never say Brunswick and Fitzroy are safe. They are desirable due to their location, employment and infrastructure. The Sunbury line is still a long way to go to achieve that.

 

Here's a few examples of house sales(West ,North West region) from 10-12 km Melbourne CBD radius

38 Balmoral Avenue, Pascoe Vale South, Vic 3044 - Property Details

57 Strathnaver Ave, Strathmore, Vic 3041 - Property Details

14 Dove Street, West Footscray, Vic 3012 - Property Details

19 Hope Street, West Footscray, Vic 3012 - Property Details

26 Dagonet Street, Strathmore, Vic 3041 - Property Details

13 Waiora Parade, West Footscray, Vic 3012 - Property Details

I assume same houses within that radius of Sydney CBD will be at least 1.5 mill plus if not more?


Cheers,
Val