VIC Melbourne price correction - post examples

Thought it was time to post an actual example.

3 bedroom house in Heathmont.. kerbside bank Val November 2017 of $863,000.

Appraised by REA $850,000-$900,000 in December 2017.

Instead of selling first quarter of this year, I wait to list in July for $850-900,000...week 1 of campaign get told to drop SOI to $800,000-$850,000. I tell the selling REA I did a tiny vomit in my mouth. Fast forward 3 weeks later, passed in on vendor bid, zero interest. Re-advertised post auction at $825,000. At this point we hate the REA and we hate property.

4 weeks after the auction we get a couple of bids of $750,000... then to $775,000.. selling REA is literally begging us to take the $775,000. We dig our heels in and get the last remainder investor to offer $801,000 in October.

Settles tomorrow. Sums up the correction in eastern Melbourne I would say. I’ve been told by many we were lucky to get $801,000.

 

Hate real-estate.

It maybe outside your risk profile.

Also when did you buy? Have you already made money and just upset you could have made more?

In late 2017 the market was already taking a turn for the worse. Did you have to hold longer or it was out of your control.


The above is no different to shares or any other investment. Picking the Top is not easy.

The best of the best on this forum were picking 2015 as the top. You read summer soft same ..

 

For the 4 bedroom median house price at least, Heathmont's median was $1,100,000 in November 2017. It was then $975,000 in October of 2018 (Core logic RP data). Thats a $125,000 drop. So based on your REA val of $850,000-$900,000 it should have really sold for $725,000-$775,000 in October 2018. $801,000 is definitely very lucky.

 

Doncaster is holding up a little better than the other suburbs in the area. Still it would be wise to get out while you still can. The broader market is indicating that Doncaster won't stay afloat forever.

 

I don't believe the market will stay down forever either. However, if you are looking to sell in the shorter term, it would be better to sell now than later. This is especially because of what has just occurred in surrounding suburbs.

 

I have attended a few Auctions in Wheelers Hill and Glen Waverly last Saturday. All of them passed in. Two in Glen without any bid at all. Another 4+2+2 went up to $960k.
One Double story beautiful home in Wheelers Hill passed in for $1.01M. The other 4+2+2 passed in for $897k. Lots of crowds but very few bidders. To my understanding, confidence on the market is very very low. They are definitely down by 10% from the peak.

 

AFR has an article with lot of speculators come late into the market and land bank with credit card or pull family funding together and hope to flipped for profit, basicly these people dont have money they want to make a quick bucks and gamble with speculations

Now they got caught in the vortex of down turn and losing money big time

here is the article
Satterley warns 5000 Melbourne housing lots to be resold, prices to fall 10pc

 

This ongoing fall (or call it 'boom in wrong direction' if one likes), by the time is done will have quite a lot of Multicultural family in ruins, many have borrowed to the max and suffering the pain in the hope of past cycle repeating itself and quick recovery bailing them out in worst case.

 

10-15 years human tend to forget previous down turn, but 27 years of boom takes it to the next level, people only think there is only one direction and discard all warning signs.

 

I’m interested in this one. 27 Rowell Street, Rosanna, Vic 3084

Been on market a while. Passed in at auction. At the price point it’s hard to get finance. I think it is one of those really good test properties, because it’s it’s neither awesome or bad. It’s just a middle ground property.

I’m gonna follow it.

Highett is another area I’m gonna track. Similar profile mid tier suburb close to high end suburbs.

 

Report out today, make of it what you may.

Unemployment rate stays at six-year low of 5%

CommSec chief economist Craig James said the figures were good news for consumer-focused businesses, noting that the date along with consumer confidence above its longer-term averages would support household spending.

Since October 2017, full-time employment in Australia has increased by 238,800 persons, while part-time employment increased by 69,400 persons.

Unemployment rate stays at six-year low of 5%

 

I think you missed my acerbic wit with that comment, but moving on.. We bought in 2010 when we had more bedrooms than children, so we made some good money, just annoyed I missed the turn in the cycle.

We had tenants in it the last few years while we were living overseas and thought that selling it whilst tenants were in there would reduce the pool of interested parties.

I've been buying and selling properties for 21 years, so perhaps not outside my risk profile, but thanks for the concern.

 

Can we start a class action against news.com for trying to tank the market with propaganda headlines every 2 days?

Getting REALLY annoying!

 

Hi Mues
what other Melb suburbs are on you radar if you are comfortable sharing that is.

 

Highett and Rosanna are also declining.

 

Yeh I should clarify. I like those two suburbs for what they represent in the Melbourne market. Not really to buy in. Would be weird to look at both, as they are a long way apart.

 

Can anyone vouch for this: Dr Andrew Wilson on LinkedIn: "First Home Buyers Now Also Starting To Sag The recent boom in first home buyer activity is now over with numbers in most states now falling below those recorded a year ago. Latest ABS data reports that nationally 8,693 loans were approved for first home buyers in September which is the lowest monthly total since holiday-impacted April’s 8,557 and a sharp decline of 9.7% compared to September last year. The number of national first home buyer loans approved this year so far however remains 12.1% higher than recorded over the sale period year. This particularly reflects the buying surge activated by significant reductions in the stamp duty payable by first home buyers that came into force in NSW and VIC on July 1 last year. That surge has now predictably run out of steam and although first home buyers are highly motivated to fast-track the Great Australian Dream, they are also not immune from the current irrational malaise that is gripping housing markets – with buyers and sellers increasingly sitting on their hands waiting for current price declines - driven largely by widespread hysterical negativity - to settle. "

According to Doc Andrew Wilson first home buyers are declining. And on the graph it says Melbourne is down 14% FHB loans from last year. That seems like a huge dip.