Melbourne price correction - post example

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by mues, 10th Nov, 2018.

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  1. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    figured since the Sydney thread was getting messy, we should get state specific.....
     
  2. jazzsidana

    jazzsidana Mortgage Brokers - Investment Savvy Business Member

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    Depending upon which part of the town we talking, I was chatting with one of my contacts this morning and outer SE suburbs have seen drop of around 5-7% approx ...
     
  3. Jimmyay

    Jimmyay Active Member

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    All eyes on clearance rates today. Know of people who inspected several properties in Brighton, lovely spots. Tumbleweed basically, few attendees.
     
  4. berten

    berten Well-Known Member

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    I mentioned in the Sydney thread, but CoreLogic released their monthly update and data shows Melbs top quartile (900k +) is down 9%.
     
  5. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    I watched two houses that went to market closely this weekend. Both sold.

    One was a town house that was purchased 8 months ago and resold due to financial situation (don’t know specifics). A friend bought it. 5% loss in price plus costs. Seller lost 10-15k a month. Good buy for my friend. Well within budget (100’s of 1000’s within their means) best spot and highest quality build of the houses they had been looking at.

    Other was the only house I have seen in the last two months I was considering spending 1mil on. In the end it was just so popular in the process I pulled out and it went over the top of the range 40k on the sale. My wife isn’t happy.

    On the other hand another house in the street can be had cheap I think. 150k+ under that. Similar block but less ready to go and sexy.
     
  6. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    I went to an auction today, the only 2 bed apartment for sale in the suburb and it passed in. Had a few groups looking on though, I don’t see a problem with it selling post auction perhaps for 5% below last year.

    That said, Sydney was a shocker today with a 41% clearance rate. I guess @sash is right that Sydney will crash harder than Melbourne. You wouldn’t guess it with people on here saying “where’s the crash in Sydney? everything is still selling!”. Perhaps Sydney is doing a lot worse than people are letting on.

    If Melbourne continues to follow Sydney’s lead like has done so far we can expect a clearance rate 41% in Melbourne by next year (so far it’s been in the high 40s).
     
  7. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    Das last weekend
     
  8. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    Lol what
     
  9. Triton

    Triton Well-Known Member

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    Domain Melbourne prelim clearance rate for Nov 10 is 48%. I believe this is the lowest ever
     
  10. jazzsidana

    jazzsidana Mortgage Brokers - Investment Savvy Business Member

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    Lol... lost in my world and almost skipped a week :p
     
  11. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    As a side note. I’ve never bought off the plan or even considered it - so i don’t know the experience. Maybe @sash or someone can help here. But I spent today visiting builders, from
    Boutique to volume for a family member looking to knock down rebuild in the next couple years.

    I only saw one other couple, even at the big brand volume builder east of Melbourne. Is that normal?
     
  12. jazzsidana

    jazzsidana Mortgage Brokers - Investment Savvy Business Member

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    Quantify crash please?
     
  13. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    Afaik , a crash is a drop of more than 20% from peak, any less and its only a correction..
     
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  14. DrunkSailor

    DrunkSailor Well-Known Member

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    This thread won’t last long. No one really cares about Melbourne. It’s all about Sydney!
     
  15. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Where is Melbourne?
     
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  16. rjw180

    rjw180 Well-Known Member

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    Curious to people's thoughts about the effect of declining house prices on build costs. Builders (project builders I've talked to anyway) reckon build prices go up with house prices, so will they decline now that house prices are?

    I actually don't see the linkage since wholesale build costs world be proportional with wage and materials costs, but maybe builders just charge what the market will bear... But in any case this may also be declining.
     
  17. Luca

    Luca Well-Known Member

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    A lot of passed in, it would be good to start reporting some examples. Even low socio suburbs like Thomastown are having a lot of passed in, this week 2 auctions and 2 passed in. Rosanna the same. Vendors still thinks they get the prices from last year, good luck. Good times coming for cashed in investors.
     
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  18. rjw180

    rjw180 Well-Known Member

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    Parts of North East Melbourne have probably come off close to 10% already IMHO - blackburn north, mont albert north, Box Hill North - especially stuff near the eastern Freeway (possibly concerns about the north east link and associated widening of the eastern). Doncaster and Bulleen are getting there too. Balwyn North possibly even worse. Some areas are holding up a little better so far e.g. Templestowe, Doncaster East.

    Also a lot less auctions too and some stock is just sitting around for ages with vendors not willing to meet the market.
     
  19. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Im curiois too.
    If people arent getting finance, demand for new builds plummets.
    Builders have to drop their margins in order to get work

    Cost of building plummets as well ??? Or not?
     
  20. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    The cost of building may drop a little, but it is the land that is over priced in Syd IMO.

    People can still get money, it is us mob that have really had the brakes applied too. We prob were not driving the new builds....