VIC Melbourne Market - thoughts for 2022-2024

Hi All

The article article looks like Melbourne is not quite down and out.

I agree for the following reasons:

1. Melbourne has the cheapest rents of the top 8 cities in Australia.
2. Job opportunities are significant with Finance, IT, Services, Manufacturing being significant employers
3. Affordability of homes is now improving..with a small drop in median (3-5%) it would put it put it the most affordable city when income is factored in. Only Perth is doing better..but prices there will rise sharply.
4. Cost of living like rents...food etc is extremely low.
5. It is a Global city like Sydney.
6. Population is expect to hit 6m by the end of this decade and will likely exceed Sydney on the next 6 years.
7. Even places like Geelong....Ballarat...Bendigo are signficantly more expensive in terms of rents for the average person living in the outer burbs.
8. The migration to Brisbane will reverse soon (next 18 months) when people realize COL is expensive and they can't but a home.

Melbourne About To Take Sydney's Crown In Top City Stakes

Any thoughts?

 

Melbourne is a good option...the smart money is always made buying when the chips are down but maybe better served after interest rate rises drive sentiment down .

 

Are the chips down yet??? How are auctions going? Are there any markets getting hammered

 

Looking for blood on the street first.
Before I get the mop out and clean up the mess.

 

Sash, I started a thread trying to work out where Melbourne rents were headed, and IMHO, by the time June vacancy rates are revealed, I think they'll show Melbourne at the lowest rate in years.

This should push rental yields up, which I'm already seeing based on thread in other forums (check reddit and whirlpool, filled with posts in the last 2 weeks of people trying to get rentals or having just received big rental increases).

How will rising rents affect property prices? Not sure, especially with other moving parts like interest rate rises on the horizon, but will help the numbers stack up for Investor calculations dramatically I'd say.

 

Haha nah not at this stage, way too early yet... some areas are still growing...70% clearance rate last weekend

 

Yes, I am watching some inner city suburbs all still strong

 

After I sell in Brisbane, likely to hold onto cash for a bit and see what plays out with rates, inflation, wars, etc.

I am looking to buy there late 2023 if bargains to be had.. and I can borrow! Rates likely to be 5-6%+ by then

 

Yes, similar to my strategy, looking at 2023

 

Same I’m holding cash. Using a small portion to do some pandemic renovations on our ppor. But watching for potential bargains.

 

Great, we’re all waiting until 2023 to buy in Melbourne. See you all at the auctions

 

How would the market crash if so many of you are waiting to buy!!

 

People have assumed that Melbourne will tank...based on the data and sentiment..rentals are improving. The real issue is the lack of labour to fill jobs. Once Qld becomes too expensive ..Melbourne will be very attractive as rents have not risen as much as Qld.

 

2023 sell Perth buy Melbourne! Golden formula!?

 

Perth won't peak yet.....at least 2024...maybe 2025..

 

Wow that’s good! You are another crystal ball I trust!

 

No bargains to be had my friend.

Literally the only part of the market that has not gone up is high rise / small apartments 2&1 bedders mainly due to absence of internationals and wfh.. but I'm not sure they are worth the risk - upside you get a REIT like yield IF immigration returns with rising fixed costs and risk of permanent loss if structure fails.

Everything else is boom town due to cheap money and no holidays. Although Melbourne has in general underperformed and rightfully so as its main attraction is the cbd and city culture which has deteriorated significantly.

Moving forward - very high probability that covid winners will in general normalise (see stock market) as headwinds strengthen.

I.e. larger homes in suburbia have experienced the irrational I want an extra study and dream wfh environment and I want it now phenomena. They will need this and cheap money to continue to support heightened prices. This flows onto downsizers and developers and into the products they buy which have also benefited from this trend.

So the question is what is the upside for people buying now?? What is the path of least resistance..

What is a worrying trend - it appears that Melbourne can only attract those that are price sensitive.. I am not sure that is a positive long term sign.. whereas regionals and Brisbane etc are attracting new money, higher rents and higher income earners & Sydney/NSW the wealthy elites.

 

sell 50% USA
keeping Perth
Buying in Melb 2023

 

And dont be too harsh on melb beaches. St kilda is crap. But brighton,edithvale, half moon bay etc are all great suburban beaches. Not world class, but better than 99pct of cities in the world.

 

What about Frankston