Melbourne in the property cycle?

Im about to buy my first investment property in melb but am nervous about this due to a lot of melbourne being a sellers marker. What are people thoughts on where melb is in the cycle?

I know some areas like the east are off the richter but what about north and west? so hard to gauge when is the best time to buy. Prices may go up for another two years before they go down and by the time they go down may still be higher than where they are now...
such a gamble

 

August 2015 Month in Review Heron Todd White

This will give you a better understanding

Enjoy!

 

I'm a big fan of their reviews.

 

Thanks!according to then melb is rising-peak.is it a bad idea to buy in this market?what are other peoples experiences? Does this stage of the cycle last long?i am very new to all this

 

Peak of market purchasing is no good if you are looking to leverage off purchases to build a CG structured portfolio as fast as you can reasonably afford.

Ideally, purchasing in areas with potential for short to mid term CG is better. But it depends on ones investment strategy. You can still attain that type of CG via renovating and manufacturing growth to enable to leverage further.

How long a stage of cycle lasts ultimately comes down to market sentiment. No one has a crystal ball to give that an definitive answer.

I hope this helps.

 

Th

Thankyou.is there historically a timeline for how long market peaks last for?very good info,I have a buyers agent helping me,not sure whether to buy now in melb or elsewhere...she said she would look in. Brisbane for me if I wanted

 

Where and what you buy is determined by your property investment strategy.

You need to look at historic (min15-20yr) CG graphs for an area to see the boom/bust time lines.

 

Thanks @Rixter. If the suburb median prices started from a low base, they would achieve reasonable annual growth until they catchup with surrounding suburbs and then slowdown. Annual CGR for some of the cheaper suburbs are in inline with blue chip ones.

Below link works for past 10 year median prices in VIC. Is there any similar data sources available for QLD,WA?

http://www.dtpli.vic.gov.au/property-and-land-titles/property-information/property-prices

 

I've been using Property Data Solutions (currently known as Pricefinder) for the past 13 years.

 

Thanks!but how do you determine property cycle times from that?im new to all this...

 

By looking at the historic cycles peaks & troughs time lines. Now I know past does not equate to future however with all things remaining equal in relation to underlying fundamentals there is nothing to suggest otherwise.

 

ah ok. i think it is a bit beyond me trying to extrapolate that information. thanks for your help

 

It's in the 9'o Clock 'ish:



which area that you are looking specifically ?

 

I feel like Adelaide has been at 6 oclock for 10 years

 

im looking at thomastown and lalor. still only 16 ks from city and dont seem to have gone up a lot yet like reservoir. u can get big blocks of land with house for around $400-$430k. do you know anything about these areas in terms of whether they are hot markets?
i would have thought melb was at its peak!

 

I use to work out in those areas, pretty dangerous place a lot of crime and junkies around that was during the day hate to see what it's like at night.

 

Hows broadmeadows and dallas mate?

 

Judge for yourself haha