Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community

Melbourne in the property cycle?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Amber83, 14th Aug, 2015.

  1. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
    Im about to buy my first investment property in melb but am nervous about this due to a lot of melbourne being a sellers marker. What are people thoughts on where melb is in the cycle?

    I know some areas like the east are off the richter but what about north and west? so hard to gauge when is the best time to buy. Prices may go up for another two years before they go down and by the time they go down may still be higher than where they are now...
    such a gamble
     
  2. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    572
    Location:
    Portfolio Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne
    Leo2413 likes this.
  3. Leo2413

    Leo2413 Well-Known Member Premium Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    5,754
    Location:
    Sydney
    I'm a big fan of their reviews.
     
  4. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria

    Thanks!according to then melb is rising-peak.is it a bad idea to buy in this market?what are other peoples experiences? Does this stage of the cycle last long?i am very new to all this
     
  5. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    572
    Location:
    Portfolio Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne
    Peak of market purchasing is no good if you are looking to leverage off purchases to build a CG structured portfolio as fast as you can reasonably afford.

    Ideally, purchasing in areas with potential for short to mid term CG is better. But it depends on ones investment strategy. You can still attain that type of CG via renovating and manufacturing growth to enable to leverage further.

    How long a stage of cycle lasts ultimately comes down to market sentiment. No one has a crystal ball to give that an definitive answer.

    I hope this helps.
     
    Last edited: 15th Aug, 2015
    Nick14 likes this.
  6. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
    Th

    Thankyou.is there historically a timeline for how long market peaks last for?very good info,I have a buyers agent helping me,not sure whether to buy now in melb or elsewhere...she said she would look in. Brisbane for me if I wanted
     
  7. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    572
    Location:
    Portfolio Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne
    Where and what you buy is determined by your property investment strategy.

    You need to look at historic (min15-20yr) CG graphs for an area to see the boom/bust time lines.
     
  8. Veech

    Veech Active Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    34
    Location:
    melbourne
    Perthguy and Amber83 like this.
  9. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    572
    Location:
    Portfolio Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne
    I've been using Property Data Solutions (currently known as Pricefinder) for the past 13 years.
     
    Last edited: 15th Aug, 2015
    Amber83 likes this.
  10. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
    Thanks!but how do you determine property cycle times from that?im new to all this...
     
  11. Rixter

    Rixter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    572
    Location:
    Portfolio Perth Brisbane Sydney Melbourne
    By looking at the historic cycles peaks & troughs time lines. Now I know past does not equate to future however with all things remaining equal in relation to underlying fundamentals there is nothing to suggest otherwise.
     
  12. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
    ah ok. i think it is a bit beyond me trying to extrapolate that information. thanks for your help
     
  13. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    24th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    1,244
    Location:
    Sydney
    It's in the 9'o Clock 'ish:

    [​IMG]

    which area that you are looking specifically ?
     
  14. Spanna

    Spanna Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    80
    Location:
    Port Hedland
    I feel like Adelaide has been at 6 oclock for 10 years
     
    2FAST4U and ej89 like this.
  15. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
    im looking at thomastown and lalor. still only 16 ks from city and dont seem to have gone up a lot yet like reservoir. u can get big blocks of land with house for around $400-$430k. do you know anything about these areas in terms of whether they are hot markets?
    i would have thought melb was at its peak!
     
    Tekoz likes this.
  16. flatlinerz

    flatlinerz Member

    Joined:
    6th Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    17
    Location:
    Aus
    I use to work out in those areas, pretty dangerous place a lot of crime and junkies around that was during the day hate to see what it's like at night.
     
  17. Amber83

    Amber83 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    14th Aug, 2015
    Posts:
    52
    Location:
    Victoria
     
  18. ej89

    ej89 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    21st Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    688
    Location:
    Sydney.
    Hows broadmeadows and dallas mate?
     
  19. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    3rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    919
    Location:
    Adelaide
    Judge for yourself haha
     
    Debz and ej89 like this.
  20. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    902
    Location:
    Melbourne
    The clock is obviously broken - at 8:40, the hour hand should be 2/3 of the way to 9, not at 9.

    The Y-man
     
    Tekoz likes this.