Melbourne exodus real or not?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by DueDiligence, 27th Sep, 2020.

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  1. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    It is true ,when the wind isnt blowing and it is raining in SA, you cant run a welder in NW VIc because a croweater needs a cup of tea while reading situations vacant... They had to install Australia's largest synchronous condenser at the Kiamal solar farm in NW Vic so SA grid could handle the power they need from Vic and a billion dollar interconnector is supposed to be built at Buronga .Businesses have exited SA already to where they can get power and get it cheaply and those wanting a job have exited with them. The last person leaving wont have to worry about turning off the lights.
     
    Last edited: 21st Nov, 2020
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  2. Tillie

    Tillie Well-Known Member

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    And probably Kilmore as well
     
  3. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Oh, we hadn't conquered Kilmore yet? Dammit! What is the northern front doing? Onward to Seymour :D

    The Y-man
     
  4. Tillie

    Tillie Well-Known Member

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    And northeast front is really slack and battle lines are drawn in Eltham - Diamond Creek. Have we conquered Healesville and Yarra Glen Wineries yet?
     
  5. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    I declare Hurstbridge conquered. I also say Kangaroo Ground has fallen - as it was included in the Ring of Steel during lockdown.

    The Y-man
     
  6. Tillie

    Tillie Well-Known Member

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    Yeah Hurstbridge has fallen. Metro train and inside the ring of steel. Also judging by the property prices Kangaroo Ground is conquered as well and inside the steel curtain. The friend of mine sent me this. Supposadly the vendor wants $5m.

    https://www.realestate.com.au/property-house-vic-kangaroo+ground-134898186

    Maybe I should post this to 'Melbourne is hot' thread.
     
  7. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    I can say I personally only know of 2 ppl that bailed, one is never to return to the police state again, went to QLD and didn’t look back. The other went to far North East Vic , both have 100 % WFH capability.

    This is a paradigm shift but I still think a few things are to come.

    WFH will taper back, there won’t be a reversal of conventional practice, informal and social interaction is part of work and people will want it. Interestingly remote working is making EA and salary knifing a lot easier as it’s not face to face and employers are taking advantage of this.

    People will holiday like maniacs on the other side of this and probably temper their property obsession.

    If rates edges down and go negative more speculation on assets will occur, if equities blow up, property will potentially go absolutely mental. There are some macro proponents that are saying a nominal cash rate of around -2 to -4 % is the actually rate at which capital will return. If this is the case and the federal reserve test it , then were in for some crazy ****.

    It’s possible too that with the Democrats in MMT will become locked in. If this happens, landscape changes again.
     
  8. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    I think equities will blow up because institutions have access to lots of cheap money and these guys don't generally buy stand alone residential properties. .

    Property not as bullish but still positive as firstly a lot of investors have been scarred by government actions during the COVID (eviction bans etc.). Also even with these ultra low rates it is harder to get investor loans compared to 2015 (15 year IO loans won't be happening again in the forseeable future) even when interest rates were higher.

    Good time to be a first home buyer and a lot of money being pulled out of investments to put in to PPOR as COVID had pushed up everyones desire to upgrade their PPOR (strongest segment and one I am most bullish on in regards to resi)
     
  9. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    Ive often wondered what effect investors returning will have. If we see the same PPOR transactions on top of FHBs along with investors I think property could go absolutely mental.My view on this is that it depends on immigration and macro settings.

    If immigration returns to +500 k NOM and macro is sub 3 % mortgage rates post 2022 the place will be post war-esque mania.

    The current main stream media bear proponents are missing one key point , which I don’t have data on but would almost bet is the case. The last 8 years has been a private debt financed economic expansion. That said, public debt grew with it but not significantly enough to be a hamper. We all know the private debt horse was being flogged big time through 2019 into 2020 then come March that ended. The government stimulus is merely a public purse offset for the current problem. Our public debt is around 45-50 % GDP, big deal, we’re less than half the US.

    The goal is a balanced economy, not a balanced budget. A balanced budget is pointless if the economy is failing. For this reason, the government will get the tab indefinitely until the private sector catch their breath again.

    People are missing the point that jobkeeper/seeker/trainer, Bankkeeper, dividendkeeper, mortgagekeeper, are all new norms. The can kicking has only just begun and our public debt will be leaned on incredibly hard.
     
  10. boganfromlogan

    boganfromlogan Well-Known Member

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    Adeliade was the first city to run power on 100% renewables for a whole day :). day often follows night!
     
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  11. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Risky assets are no longer risky - all govt backed. Buy away :)
     
  12. grk349

    grk349 Well-Known Member

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    Anybody hearing anything about any rush into SEQ since they opened the border?
    Thinking of buying a house in the middle ring of Brisbane but will take me a while to get things sorted.
    Seems quite cheap compared to home loan repayments.
     
  13. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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  14. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

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    I know of 7 different people/families including ourselves who are moving out of Melbourne

    But talking to some people about whether that's the general trend, most people have said they only know of us or just one other person/family
     
  15. Westie

    Westie Well-Known Member

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    No one in my network (LinkedIn or otherwise) is moving out of Melbourne. I have a sizable professional network.
     
  16. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    Yeah TBH the suppression of the virus in NSW and Victoria in the last month has been beyond anyone's wildest dream.

    Even The Australian has been laying off Dan (I am a liberal voter) as they know that the facts speak for themselves. You can tell the majority of people have moved on and don't really care and interest in the hotel quarantine enquiry anymore. Anger peaked when they delayed announcing by a day or two of the lifting of restrictions with that outbreak linked to the muslim school.

    Speaking to people that know of people that have left are people that don't really have roots in Melbourne and moving back to where they are originally from (The only family I knew went back to WA after moving here for a job at the start of the year)

    I have a few people on social network vent about wanting to leave to Melbourne during the lockdown but nothing has materialised and they don't talk about it anymore

    There has already been an exodus as shown in the stats but I don't see it as significant and in my opinion it had already peaked or is near it right now. The main question mark is when international students and immigration starts again.

    With immigration it's all about education, job prospects and family. Australia has been seen overall as handling COVID well and we can be in a bit of a bubble in regards to saying which CIty/State handled it best but looking at it from overseas they think the whole of Australia has done well. 1000 deaths is not regarded as a significant. People are also forward looking and think about their future prospects in their desired destination
     
  17. Vine Street

    Vine Street Active Member

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    We've spoken to a few people recently who said if lockdowns happened again then they'd be moving out of Melbourne, but they aren't changing anything at the moment
     
  18. Melbourne_guy

    Melbourne_guy Well-Known Member

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    Where would you go? If another lockdown occurred in Melbourne, other States will have closed their borders or they also will be in lockdown. Moving State at short notice is something very few have the ability to do.
     
  19. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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    Are all those moving 100% wfh? Or have found a job elsewhere?

    Interested to hear your response. Cheers
     
  20. Robbo80

    Robbo80 Well-Known Member

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