Melbourne exodus real or not?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by DueDiligence, 27th Sep, 2020.

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  1. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    There’s a fair share of spruiking up here in Brisbane about how Mexicans are coming for your property, buying over the phone sight unseen etc.

    At first thought it was REIQ propaganda but this week I’ve spoken to 2 agents who have told me they’ve been filling rentals over the phone from Melbournians escaping the police state. One agent said it was a rent FOMO , people were calling the agency asking if they had any rentals , not even calling about a listed property just calling hoping they had something.

    Has anyone got any evidence on this (anectdotal or otherwise)? I’m suspecting the rent thing may be real, but dubious on buyers, thats a fair commitment on such a whim in such uncertain times.
     
  2. Hebro

    Hebro Well-Known Member

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    Interstate migration to Qld was recovering before Covid.
    The trend may accelerate.

    Net Interstate Migration ; Queensland ;
    Frequency Quarter
    Jun-2014 1,779
    Sep-2014 1,653
    Dec-2014 1,836
    Mar-2015 1,382
    Jun-2015 1,990
    Sep-2015 2,119
    Dec-2015 3,250
    Mar-2016 3,187
    Jun-2016 3,430
    Sep-2016 3,492
    Dec-2016 4,928
    Mar-2017 4,208
    Jun-2017 5,167
    Sep-2017 5,402
    Dec-2017 7,733
    Mar-2018 5,702
    Jun-2018 5,861
    Sep-2018 5,020
    Dec-2018 7,213
    Mar-2019 5,175
    Jun-2019 5,423
    Sep-2019 5,470
    Dec-2019 6,860
    Mar-2020 6,268
     
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  3. DueDiligence

    DueDiligence Well-Known Member

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    Interesting the big numbers in Sep & Dec 18 , the vacancy rates in Brisbane were really high then.
     
  4. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    My niece has been looking to move closer to their business premises at Narangba (across the motorway from North Lakes. She spent three weeks trying to get a rental at North Lakes, often competing against 20 30 other potential renters. She said the RE agents mentioned the competition was from expats returning home from overseas, post the covid flight restrictions.
     
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  5. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    Hopefully we can get some rental growth. I have about half a dozen in Brisbane and due to all those apartments, my houses have seen like $20-30 rental increase over the past decade.

    I have one in Sunnybank Hills that has gone from $370 to $400 in 12 years. God dammit.
     
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  6. cberg86

    cberg86 Active Member

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    Anecdotal, I live in a small complex(32 units) in Townsville:
    - at the end of March a truck driver & his girlfriend moved from Melbourne to Townsville and rented for 6 months before buying their own place a few weeks ago.
    - just this week a concreter from Melbourne has just moved into a unit for 6 months, looking to retire & buy up here.

    I live in a very popular & convenient spot so may just be a bit skewed. I understand through a friend who does building & pest inspection in NQ that Cairns building & pest activity is off the charts with Victorian's ordering them for sale contract due diligence.
     
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  7. Buynow

    Buynow Well-Known Member

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    I’ve just bought a Sydney house from a couple who are moving to Queensland. However, not a that a small short term increase in interstate migration will move the dial. Lots of apartments being finished and no overseas migration.

    I think there will be some longer term impacts from a WFH trend - downward pressure on inner city prices and upward pressure on outer suburbs (nice ones) and regional areas.
     
  8. Rich2011

    Rich2011 Well-Known Member

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    Building and Pest inspectors we use are reporting huge demand for reports from Melbourne buyers.
     
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  9. kaibo

    kaibo Well-Known Member

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    sorry guys if people moving from Melbourne to Queensland to live it wouldn't be to Brisbane. People moving are looking for a bigger change than to moving to Brisbane if they are leaving


    Holiday homes or PPOR, PPOR I assume as we though about a holiday home in Noosa but getting there from Melbourne is too hard
     
  10. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    That's a big call. There are plenty of people who choose Brisbane. It's pace is so different to either Melbourne or Sydney. But it is a city and not a beach holiday place. I guess it depends on each individual and reason for leaving.
     
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  11. Rich2011

    Rich2011 Well-Known Member

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    With houses available from around early 200k in Brisbane we are getting a lot of inquiry from Melbourne trust me!
     
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  12. Codie

    Codie Well-Known Member

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    Many within my industry are planning to leave Melbourne and head to the sunshine state, putting things in place including selling up a 25yr family business. It’s only a small sample size but it’s a common theme
     
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  13. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Where are the houses from around early 200k in Brisbane? And would someone coming from Melbourne want to live in them?
     
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  14. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Really depends on who is moving away.
    If you are struggling in Melbourne with cost of living.
    200k home in Brisbane would sounds like heaven.
    Putting things in perspective - your trash is someone else treasure.
     
  15. albanga

    albanga Well-Known Member

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    @Illusivedreams started a similar thread and I initially responded saying it wouldn’t happen.

    Since then though the debacle that is Victoria has unfolded to where we now find ourselves and realistically no form of normality on the cards until a vaccine or new government.

    Couple that wIt’s WFH the new normal and absolutely this is happening.

    I have a few friends now in planning stage and 1 family member. All of them planning to head to QLD.
     
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  16. jaybean

    jaybean Well-Known Member

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    What's your industry?
     
  17. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Agree... and I'm not saying a $200k house in Brisbane is trash. But I would wonder where you can buy in Brisbane for that money.
     
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  18. The Y-man

    The Y-man Moderator Staff Member

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    Last time I went to Brisbane, I got stuck in traffic jams (on several occasions at different times in different places!) that were as bad as melbourne ..... I think Adelaide is the place to go! :D

    The Y-man
     
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  19. essendonfan

    essendonfan Well-Known Member

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    I think you will see more of this (as people holiday in your backyard as opposed to overseas holidays)

    Just got back from a week in Port Macquarie - sure it's a little slow, but loved it and you can get a proper 4/2/2 for $650k-$700k, $750-$800k will get a nice finish.

    edit: it was 25 degrees, every day. Beer was cold and the seafood was fresh.

    I think I am talking myself into a retirement investment

    4%+ yield
     
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  20. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    As long as you dont need a job, and have plenty of candles .
     
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