Market Sentiment

Yes, I would be too.

$60B loss last week in share market. Not sure whether it recovered??
Seems to be over many markets around the world.

Perhaps look at ways of reducing the risk..... cash??

Also not advice I don't know your personal scenario

MTR

 

Maybe concider less cyclical investments? A lot of super funds will provide this choice. History shows us that equity markets have an uncanny ability to serve as a good indicator for recessions. For example, markets started a steep decline in mid-2000 before the recession of March to November 2001. But even in a decline, there's good news for investors, since pockets of relative outperformance can still be found in equity markets.

Thought I think we are far from recession, if you are worried (and are close to retirement). As investors sell these risky assets, they seek safety and move into bonds and treasury bonds. In other words, the prices of risky bonds go down as people sell, meaning the yields on these bonds increase; the prices of Treasury bonds go up, meaning their yields decrease.

No advice

 

Might be worth a read

Stock and bond markets are doing a strange thing that is reminiscent of the 1987 crash

 

Greed, stupidity and ignorance rolled in one.

Admittedly, my partner has reeled in my greed at times always to our benefit . Vital to have the right partner . The wrong one can destroy you .

 

They're always the right partner until they're not.

 

I think it could be potentially for USA, where stock valuations are 26 times earnings (the long term mean being about 15; USA has put on 40% in the last year alone, and there is a solid argument at least a lot of the growth of their stock market is speculative waffle). In Australia valuations are much more reasonable (about 15-16 so bang on the mean) and the ASX has not had a lot of love for the last decade. Share ownership per person has fallen quite a bit over the last two decades, probably because of the rise in the property market.

If property corrects to a significant extent, I think that will be very good for the share market in the long term, as the recovery will likely be invested into that market (which is what happened in countries in USA, Europe etc where property markets corrected). Investment capital always needs a place to go, and investors will always invest. That will be good for company growth and wage growth, and the economy, and will aid in any recovery (I strongly disagree when people argue the bubble in property would "destroy the economy" if it burst. Of course it wouldn't).

I think any drop in the ASX has a good chance of being relatively brief and definitely overdone, as even the slightest drop will push it into "undervalued" territory on a long run basis. I think as long as you diversify your holdings you should be ok.

 

True. But I do think many couples dont actively work on their relationships and think it will flourish by itself. Not the case imo hence the divorce rate .

 

Interesting if share market in US corrects, how will this impact on Aussie shares??
It was only 3 weeks ago Aussie share market took a dive, 60B loss.

Back to market sentiment, notice postings on shares significantly dropped off.



MTR::

 

I'm not selling ....

 

Interesting global share markets fell with news of Trumps tariffs on steel and aluminium, this may likely impact on Australian share market??

Share threads gone very quiet

Whats looking positive on PC, there is lots of talk that Brissy will take off??

 

Imo up to the 9km mark from the CBD over the last 3 years, free standing homes have already taken off. The trick now is to be able to identify value suburbs around/near the zones which have already jumped in value. There is plenty of opportunity worth taking a punt in, especially when you look at the risks Vs possible returns with a medium term outlook.

 

Hard to say, really. We'd probably follow them down in a panic, but if shares did fall they'd probably be more of a bargain, where I think US shares would be returning to fair value.

 

if the US economy continues to soar, and the recently introduced tax cuts continue to put more dollars in their citizens' pockets; I'd say you are in for a good year, MTR!

 

been a good year since 2011 in terms of property this is when US recovery started

 

I am sure you are right but not willing to take a punt as it impacts on my cashflow.
Just where I am at the moment

 

Of course you shouldn't. I'd only invest in markets and deals I truely understand, regardless of what anyone says

 

I can only comment on the markets I watch and what I've experienced but what I'm seeing is a 'fragmented' change in sentiment...for the moment at least.

Over the last 2 months I've sold 2 properties. The first was a H&L build in Officer. What a frenzy that market still is!! 1 open house on a Saturday, 37 groups through multiple offers and a sale price well in excess of what I had expected.

I was back in the same market again a week later for a new land release where there were 2 blocks that I thought were way undervalued. Unfortunately I missed out that time, but from the 15 blocks that were released online at 12 noon, all sold out within about 10 seconds!! Crazy stuff.

H&L builds have increased everywhere, the days where you can just walk up to any old (new) estate, buy a block and make 20-30% in 12 months are well and truly over. However, there is still opportunity to manufacture some juicy deals..... if you know what your doing and where to look

The other Property I sold was in Hampton. This is where i've noticed a significant change in sentiment....
A higher end market, that's been running hot for about 3 years...with most properties getting sold at auction or prior. Well, not anymore.... More and more properties are passing in and there's been a significant drop in buyers attending opens.
At my auction, not 1 bid!! Had about 9 attendees, mostly neighbours.... Ended up passing in on a vendor bid.
In all honesty I was considering renting it out again and moving on. Agent suggested advertising it at abit above my original reserve and seeing if it generated any interest...

It was only crazy luck that about a week later, someone walked in for an inspection, and paid what I was asking.

While I haven't really noticed a decline in prices in Hampton/Bayside, I'm definitely seeing a stabilization of prices in these higher end Melb markets. There's less buyers out there and properties are taking longer to sell. The fomo is all but gone.

 

Thanks for great feedback abd congratulations

What I make of it is -

FHB market still strong

Many investors are out of the market APRA worked, You cant buy homes if you cant source finance

I am expecting supply to increase

The question is even in FHB territory can FHB soak up supply moving forward? Seriously doubt this