Market impact of a liberal win

After what happened on Saturday, I am not going to make any predictions/forecasts until I can get myself a better crystal ball .

 

RBA and RC have completely different mandates. RC’s mandate was to improve lending practices and not set a direction on property prices. Even RBA doesn’t claim they have mandate over property prices. They really only are tasked with monitory policy.

 

not when you have philip lowe.

 

He certainly is. Mainly focuses on the higher priced properties ($1M to $2M+).

Another REA (in Brisbane) who focus is the top end sent me an email this morning. She told me that they sold a $4.5M property last Friday (buyers must have known the Election outcome ) and a $2.5M property earlier last week.

If this is indicative of these sub-markets, hopefully the confidence will flow through the whole Brisbane market.

 

A bounce is possible, a return to peak would need a drop in supply (in terms of apartments coming onto the market etc). Not saying it's all bad, but predicting a return to boom level growth is very premature.

 

Excellent - very keen to see Brisbane accelerate!!

 

Not necessarily- there was so much uncertainty around this that it made people scared to invest also. It was also highly unlikely but what if the negative gearing wasn't grandfathered in? As unlikely as that is, it would have surely weighed on people's minds.

We have two properties currently listed for sale that have been for almost 3 months- hoping the election result leads to a couple of (good) sales ASAP!

 

Good luck - get your agent to do a mid week open. You don't want to miss out on early enthusiasm!

 

Before the election, so many people said that the removal of NG and the reduction of CGT discount implemented by Labor would have a big negative impact on the housing market, forcing it to fall (and stagnant) for a long period of time.

Now Labor was gone and almost the same people say that the RE market will still keep falling to the same extend as the above scenario since Labor policies if implemented would not have any material impact.

So my conclusion is doom sayers are alway doom sayers

P/S: I am not saying the market has bottomed and will rise soon as I have no crystal ball (I wish I had).

 

I respectfully disagree. While NG/CGT reforms have been suggested to be factors in upcoming price falls, I think most people here have provided reasonable assessment that the price falls have mostly been caused by APRA regulation, lack of credit growth, economy slowing, and (some people's favourite) IO2PI slowly biting...

 

Please re-read my post. I have never said that Labor policies are the main (and/or only) reason for the housing market decline. In fact, I fully agree with a lot of PCers here that APRA enforced regulation/credit squeeze is the main reason (and also RE cycles) for the fall. But search in the forum and you will see that many people claimed the removal of NG and the reduction of CGT would put further significant downward pressure on house price and the end of the world is coming. Now the same people say Labor election failure does not have any impact which I find contradictory.