Market impact of a liberal win

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by standtall, 16th May, 2019.

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  1. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    There has been a lot of discussion around impact of Labor abolishing negative gearing and other anti-business policies but what if Labor actually doesn’t win this election.

    Ipsos poll that just came out has Labor-Liberal at 51 to 49 with coalition primary support up 3 points. Liberal is tracking well amongst the surveys of those who have already voted.

    In the case of a liberal win, what would be the outcome on property markets?
     
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  2. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Possible..

    But I think the most likely result will be Labor with a close to hung parliament with the balance of power held by Greens, UAP, or some independents. Means that everything such as CGT removal, neg gearing changes, div imputation changes, and things will be back in the air and probably likely to be altered quite a bit.
     
  3. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Liberal odds are now 3.3/1.7 from 12/1.02

    Scomo is doing a Trump by proving polls wrong at this stage!
     
  4. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Proves that polls are rubbish. I don't even know why they bother.
     
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  5. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Tony Abbott is likely to lose his seat at this stage.
     
  6. Scott No Mates

    Scott No Mates Well-Known Member

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    I was poled the other day, still have the bump on my head to prove it. :p
     
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  7. MyPropertyPro

    MyPropertyPro REBAA Buyer's Agents Sutherland Shire & Surrounds Business Member

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    Markets will still be driven by credit flow more than NG assuming this now turns out how it’s looking.

    - Andrew
     
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  8. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Notice what happened before and after 2016 election!!


    AB91987B-1D75-49C5-9A40-B8C2F5A4A271.jpeg
     
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  9. Blueskies

    Blueskies Well-Known Member

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    Sydney property market bottom this weekend?
     
  10. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    It will be interesting to see the share price of all the LICs on Monday. Most are trading at a decent discount to NTA expecting a Labor win.
     
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  11. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    Looks like my bet on the libs will get paid.
     
  12. standtall

    standtall Well-Known Member

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    Yes if we go by what happened in 2016.

    Australians have spoken loud and clear .. they don’t like royal commissions, threats to property markets and punitive taxation of investors.

    Scomo has the mandate now and should be able to send the message loud and clear to the banks.
     
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  13. fols

    fols Well-Known Member

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    What linkage are you drawing to last election? I don’t get your point. Was in middle of boom.
     
  14. jprops

    jprops Well-Known Member

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    That was most likely due to the May and August rate cuts to record lows (back when rate cuts still meant something).
    Screenshot_20190518-232726.png
     
  15. Befuddled

    Befuddled Well-Known Member

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    Correlation, not causation
     
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  16. Kangabanga

    Kangabanga Well-Known Member

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    I reckon its more due to the ongoing US CHINA trade war affecting stocks worldwide. Even AUD has taken a recent hit despite sky high iron ore prices. Expect more carnage on ASX when the bad numbers start coming out of china as the 25% tariffs bite and if no progress on a trade deal happens after the G20 meeting next month.
     
  17. Younginvestor2

    Younginvestor2 Well-Known Member

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    Quite the contrary to your thinking. Liberal win means maintaining status quo. No impetus to beat the Jan 1 deadline for NG. Until such time that RBA cuts the rate or APRA relaxes the 7.25% serviceability test, I foresee same sluggish market.
    Why catch the falling knife when investors can NG now or next year or forever? Even the 5% deposit only for FHB come Jan 1 will turn out to be nothing but just a small window dressing temporary relief to the housing slump.
     
  18. mues

    mues Well-Known Member

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    But the status quo was fear of change. 70% of people expected an alp win. That’s now removed.

    There will be some change to the market over the next 6 months. Not huge. But I think now we start heading towards a balanced market for the next 2 years.
     
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  19. Befuddled

    Befuddled Well-Known Member

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    The coalition win strengthens the likelihood of a bottoming out in the big cities over the next 6-12months, more from a sentiment perspective than anything else. (History shows 2yrs about the norm for length of downturns)

    Personal interests aside, I don't see the need for assessment rates to come down. Australia's household debt, price to income metrics are high relative to other developed countries. Nothing wrong with putting a cap on growth for a while, address affordability issues and let wages catch up.
     
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member

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    Markets wont bottom if credit squeeze is still in place. This is what caused the market slow down, not the election

    However, Market sentiment may improve, but its not enough to turm the markets

    AUD may rebound???? But its broken the 70 barrier going to be harder to come back and its a reflection of softening economy
     
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