March 2018 HTW property clock

I don't mind them either I don't think markets behave as predictably as the clock might suggest but I think overall they do tend to follow that cycle.

In relation to Brisbane I'm pretty sure that Brisbane was at rising market about a year or more ago but then when nothing happened they put it back to start of recovery now it's back up to rising market again

 

Sydney goes backwards . The medians don’t always give an accurate picture as they are 12 month averages .

Saw it after the boom in 1988 ( house in Pymble Ave , sold for over 1 mill , on the market in 600’s in early 90’s ) . After the peak in 2003 , also saw places go backwards .

Cliff

 

In the case of property market indices yes, usually. More importantly, they are the middle. So if the market loses say 1% then half of the market is more than 1% down.

 

I agree provided they are somewhat accurate

 

The risk with a property clock is oversimplification. They make a great analogy and are a simple visual representation, but only as long as people know the whole cyclical nature of markets is a bit more complicated than that.

 

Unless I am missing something, Sydney is a declining market.
What is the problem with HTW's clock in that regard?

 

good insight @Tom Rivera, the "Clock" thing is more about principle, rather than particular market analysis.

lots more research need to be put in place before signing a contract.

 

Perth has possibly hit bottom, but in saying this I take property clocks with a grain of salt, way too broad, same as stats.... bundle it altogether and then take an average, well that is pretty average and easily get it wrong by a long shot.

 

@TMNT "bottom to peak to bottom in 3 months"

Could be a mini boom measured over a small market?? But that sounds a stretch

 

measured over the 20cm patch of hair on the head of the editor , or predicted by the office gerbil

 

Absolutely. For what it's worth a BA I've been working with thinks the Perth $900k-$1m market is showing good value, but $500-600k is still poor value as an example.

 

Depends where?? 900-$1m. Close as posdible to CBD is good

 

Would that go to say that 500-600k properties have not correct enough yet? What is your criteria for determining if something is good value. I would think a big part is comparing the property to the area, but how do you determine if a whole area is good value or not.

 

I don't really know, that is their secret sauce as a BA firm and property research firm

I can only assume they are poor value when doing like for like property comparisons. properties in this range have not gone through as much of a correction as the property is in the high range.

 

Anyone have any thoughts on Newcastle which is showing at peak of market on the clock. Newcastle itself seems to be booming after the light rail began construction and the uni campus in town was opened.

 

Hi Aaron. I think Newcastle still has potential as an investment as long as you stay within the inner Suburbs where land is at a premium. Newcastle Uni will increase by 8 X with the new buildings being built over the next 5 years which will bring alot of students in to the City, especially once the new bus interchange opens & public transport improves. I personally would stay away from the big new developments outside the City as there will always be more land being released around these areas & this will keep growth at a minimum.......although just my opinion.

 

Thanks, from the research I’ve done and people I’ve spoken to i couldn’t agree more with everything you said. Might not be as much growth as last couple of years but still should be solid Iong term. I’d stay away from inner city apartments as well as they are going up everywhere in town and I’d say there will be an oversupply

 

Haha. Yes, very true although saying that I have recently purchased a OTP apartment in Wickham although ours is to become our PPOR & it fits our lifestyle. Generally you probably should stay away from inner city apartments as investments due to the large number coming online over the next couple of years. If I was looking to purchase now I would be looking at houses in Broadmeadow for investments. Good luck mate.

 

Broadmeadow is my No1 pick for location too because of all the plans in place to improve it with development and transport links. When you get that far in though the cashflow gap gets too great. Inner city unit will be for me too in a few years! Been looking at Mayfield/Georgetown what do you think?

 

Yeah, this is true. Prices are ridiculous and the way things are with the banks currently I wouldn't recommend over stretching yourself too much & make sure you speak with a good broker.
I reckon Mayfield / Georgetown / Waratah are good suburbs too but like anywhere do some research on the area first. I was looking at Cardiff a few months back & there were some good houses there as well so may be worth a look.
Kotara / Adamstown / New Lambton are also very good suburbs but from my experience I have found that houses do not come up for sale as much in these areas as they are more closely kept & hence keeps the prices higher, although saying this if you are lucky to find a good house in these areas you will have no trouble selling even in a down town as they are desirable places due to good schools amenities etc.

I would just stay away from all these new big housing developments that are being built as I reckon these will be the first to be dumped if the property market tanks. As long as you hold property as close to the CBD within your budget I think you will be pretty safe as long as you are holding long term.

I am still relatively new to investing myself & learning so much everyday so these are just my personal opinions but I wish you the best of luck