March 2018 HTW property clock

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Eric Wu, 8th Mar, 2018.

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  1. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Well-Known Member Business Member

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    what do you reckon?

    Brisbane has been sitting on the 9 O'clock for a while now.
     

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  2. Todd

    Todd Well-Known Member

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    It's rising, but slowly....

    And Mildura at 'start of recovery' for about 5 years now
     
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  3. hieund85

    hieund85 Well-Known Member

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    What do you think about Geelong @Eric Wu ?
     
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  4. DaveM

    DaveM Well-Known Member

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    Bendigo is declining? Prices have been pretty stagnant for a couple of years now
     
  5. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Well-Known Member Business Member

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    hi @hieund85 , I haven't bought in Geelong personally, can only speak from observations on the deals coming across my table from clients, still good buying opportunities I say ( not particularly Geelong CBD, but surrounding suburbs).
     
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  6. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    For once, Sydney and Melbourne dont exist.
     
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  7. Kevvy7

    Kevvy7 Well-Known Member

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    Regional hubs of qld the way to go by the looks of that.
     
  8. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Biggest joke of a report these guys.
    I remeber in the api magazine. One suburb went from bottom to peak to bottom in 3 months.

    I wrote a letter to the editor saying "do any of you guys read what you print?"
     
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  9. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Well-Known Member Business Member

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    I understand your point of view @TMNT , these reports are not science journal or academic reports, they are merely views from certain ppl, read them with a grain of salt, like what you have done.

    but it still worth a glance.
     
  10. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    Well. If it's in a property magazine and released by a company and not an individual I expect there to be scientific basis in there.
    And even an amateur knows that the market doesn't go from peak to bottom in 30 days.
    There needs to be some consistency and logic if I'm going to ever give either any credibility or a recommendation
     
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  11. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I thought it just moved to 9 o'clock (rising market from 'start of recovery'?
     
  12. Luca

    Luca Well-Known Member

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    Melbourne has been floating between approaching and peak for the last 3 years. Playing by the rules you would have lost 60/70% capital gains. The reality is that we can assess risks but cannot predict market directions
     
  13. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    I looked at the chart again this morning without any lights turned on in the room. Sydney and Melbourne can be seen again afterall. Is this some astro-scientific phenomenem?
     
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  14. virhlpool

    virhlpool Well-Known Member

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    For the first time Sydney has been put on ‘Declining’ officially on the clock. Editors must have needed some guts to say so.

    Some people on forum here still won’t agree, including partial of myself. It is just hard to believe for me that Sydney can decline just because I haven’t closely witnessed the price fall in Sydney before. From macro level, everything seems to be in favour of the city - migration, economy, crazy pent up demand, high renters to owners ratio, etc. It will be interesting to see as to how long Sydney takes to complete the whole cycle from here to start booming again strictly as per the clock ;). Or if it will go through all stages in between to be rising again at all, hard to say.

    I have been reading articles on Sydney market lately and they seem to be changing their views every week. It means that even the experts aren’t clear as to how much the prices will fall, where they may fall or if the prices will fall at all. ‘Softening’ is the only answer they seem to have found for all these questions. :)
     
    Last edited: 9th Mar, 2018
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  15. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    BIS Shrapnel: "We will be the industry leaders in producing the most inaccurate property reports!"

    Herron Todd White: "Hold my beer..."
     
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  16. S.T

    S.T Well-Known Member

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    I read it with a whole salt shaker next to me, still didn't help.
     
  17. Eric Wu

    Eric Wu Well-Known Member Business Member

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    you might a bottle of water after that much salt, ;)
     
  18. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

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    I think property clocks are a terrible representation, personally. Markets do 'cycle' but they simply don't behave in the predictable sort of format you see on a clock, so as an analogy it could be very misleading to the inexperienced. (e.g. thinking say Hervey Bay, being at the 'start of recovery' will now cycle into growth).

    With markets, they don't 'cycle' in a circular fashion like, say, a wheel. They cycle more like a pendulum (in a push and pull fashion), up and down around a long term mean (typically in property markets this is best taken as 100 years due to the significant length of market cycles). This is because the forces causing booms and busts directly affect prices.

    e.g. if a market booms, more people buy, which pushes up prices and debt, and more people build, which ramps up supply. These forces cause the market to react: rising debt and principals starts to exclude buyers, reducing demand for property generally. Extra supply decreases competition for assets, reducing demand for those assets. Basically, high prices eventually cause lower prices.

    That's the cycle. The market creates and deflates its own price pressures.

    The reason I'm not keen on a clock is this tends to happen in a very up/down way, and swings can often be unpredictable, because markets operate on both a micro and macro scale, and are affected by a lot of external variables (e.g. population).
     
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  19. Jamesaurus

    Jamesaurus Well-Known Member

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    lols!
    Similar with Canberra:
    9 to 2 to 9 again !
     
  20. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

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    I think property clocks are great

    They emphasise and educate people that subject to normal or predictable market forces, property prices follow a cyclic pattern

    Sure once the clock hits 12 for example, the next step should be down. However some random or new market force might extend 12 of clock for a bit longer. But once this.market force is absorbed, it should revert back to normal.

    One thing for Sure is that it won't go from 12 o'clock to 6 o'clock over night

    Even though HTW seem to think so:D:D:D
     
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