Malcolm Turnbull can still lead a united Coalition to victory over Labor

In Longman, which borders Peter Dutton's seat.

Labor: +5.3%
Lib: -10.4%
One N: +6.7%

 

I honestly think the only way they will stay in is if they stick to their agenda and stop politicking. Everyone is fed up with the sniping.

Libs also have to improve their ability to sell their ideas. They have a tendency to say "this is what we're doing" with no explanation as to what, why or when - which gives the air of "backroom deals" when it's not.

 

Part of their agenda is tax cuts for big business, which includes banks. You think they will or should stick with that? How about when the RC concludes and publishes it's findings?

The senate voting down the rest of tax legislation will be a godsend to the LNP. They can then genuinely say... "Not our fault, but here is the new policy that we are talking to the election".

 

wages and wealth gap usually get government vote out, it hard to balance but when everyone feels they are rich and prosperous you can stay in government for a long time
Howard and Costello years.

these days low income and young people find it hard to get into the properties market,
wages slow, penalties rates etc..
all Bill has to do is drum up these resentments and you have a Trump effect.

Pretty sure getting rid of -ve gearing sits well with the young voter, right or wrong that the reason they resent properties investor and cause them to be out of the market.
anti-company tax cut sits well with low-income people too because all these see is the greedy corporation. facts and figure don't usually matter the narrative matter more

Now 5 million votes and they endorse labor policy so they going to run with that and enact on it if elected.

and that could be a black swan

 

I am a lib voter - but believe there shouldn't have been any tax cuts - even the personal ones

If they want to help people and businesses then cut hidden and background taxes - payroll tax, terrorism tax, stamp duty on motor vehicles/houses, insurance tax, agricultural tax, fuel tax

Hidden taxes are the real terror Australians face

 

Extremely interesting result in Longman - Pauline didn't campaign at all (she was on holidays) but still managed to get a hefty swing.

 

Alexander Downer hits out at the "haters" in the seat of Mayo and blames them for his daughter's failure to secure the seat - via ABC:

"We are Adelaide Hills people and been in politics here for decades and through multiple elections never come across such abuse," Mr Downer posted to the group.

"Sharkie supporters have brought such horrible hate to our district."

He then added: "You must all be new arrivals."

Alex is being disingenuous there, his daughter hasn't lived in Adelaide for almost 20 years and if there's one thing that Adelaide people hate its blow-ins who return from Melbourne or Sydney and pretend that they've never left. It was pretty transparent that Georgina was just trying to use the electorate to propel herself into politics, she would have had bugger all interest in the electorate once she got to Canberra.

 

I don't think the IPA and their policy vomit goes down well there either... her personal policy beliefs that she champions might find more support among the leafy surrounds of Melbourne's East or Sydney's North but not so much in Mayo.

As for Lord Alex, either he thinks Adelaide is a 1700s aristocracy with his family and friends as the landed gentry, or he is a racist. Pick one.

 

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I know - it's in the link ...

 

I agree with this. Governing is a balance between doing the right thing, even when unpopular and listening to what voters want. Company tax cuts are not the right thing to do in this economic environment.

They need to listen to voters views on company tax cuts or they will have no hope at the next election.

 

I am glad the Libs didn’t win either of the two seats they were hoping for.

Now Malcolm will go full term . Also gives BS and/or the ALP nine more months to trip themselves .

Conflict of interest:- we are aiming to sell our PPOR in the next 4 to 5 months - the last thing we need is a Federal general election in the middle of our marketing campaign .

 

Terrorism Insurance Levy
Hidden taxes are the real terror Australians face
I'll leave that to you to decide whether that's a terrorism tax. I thought there was another related tax on high income earners but I can't find it.

 

Looks like I was thinking of something else.

 

Wouldn't be surprised as there are blimin' taxes everywhere ... even tho we're not "high" income by any stretch, we still seem to be hit with every levy going (flood, drought etc)

 

Well, to be fair, with income tax dropped in recent years, it's probably the same rate, or lower than income tax historically. If people have children they pay negligible tax too (due to all government benefits whether welfare or schools, medicare, dental programs).

 

Honestly I think people should prepare for Labor to win at this point. The banking royal commission has made banks wildly unpopular, and Turnbull's tax cuts aren't being received well at all.

There's also the demographic shift, in that more older voters (mostly Boomers) tended to like Liberal policies, where younger voters tended to like Labor. It's Turnbull's biggest headwind by far.

Problem is this will be the first election where younger working Australians start to outnumber the Boomers, who are retiring (so there's a lot less policy to "buy" their votes, as we already have extremely generous pension schemes, super concessions etc, whereas Shorten has a lot of room to dangle carrots in front of young voters without losing the those older voters who already tend to dislike him).

Unless Turnbull appeals to more young people (and he's shot himself in the foot by firmly doing the opposite for years) he's screwed. Young voters tend to want cheap housing, strong socialised policies, cheaper educations, urgent climate change action... Turnbull is doing basically the opposite of what the emerging majority of voters wants.

Turnbull's already got such a slim majority I just doubt he'll recover the ground he's squandered.

 

Can't wait to see the back of the coalition government; why people continue to persist believing the myth that they're economically responsible is beyond me or that they want gov out of people's lives (marriage equality anyone??).