TAS Lutana/Moonah/Goodwood/Derwent Park areas?

Yes, I am aware of this. With a concentration of retirees in Hobart it is likely to affect this market.

 

I am not so sure about this. I have few retirees friends in Hobart and they only own one property there while having 2+ properties in Mel/Sydney.

 

Lol there's always going to be social issues in these areas. If you worry about such a thing you would had missed on Moonah/Glenorchy in Tassie, Redfern and Mt Druitt in Sydney, Newcomb and Norlane/Corio in Vic, Logan in QLD etc. As you've been seeing Moonah/Glenorchy, Mt Druitt, Newcomb and Logan had already seen some good growth over the past few years. Moonah/Glenorchy was one of the worse area to live in growing up - It still has social issues but as price growth continues, they are pushed further out. Tassie and Vic still has a higher unemployment rate than NSW so if you chose to focus on that you would had missed out the top two states in 2017!

With regards to Lutana having amenities close by, I wouldn't really say it's close by compared to Moonah/Glenorchy - you still have to travel to access amenities. Lutana is never talked about as a desirable area to live, recently it's all been either Glenorchy/Moonah or Kingston. I'm not really certain about relocating an industrial area of a still active smelter but that would be speculation, HCC are known to be quite conservative (anti-development) which is the main reason for the supply shortage in Tassie so I really can't see this happening in the near future. If you are willing to gamble on that that would be up to you. But I would choose Rosny over Lutana.

 

Attempting to use theories developed for a "chartist" in stocks or bond markets isn't applicable to real estate, the markets are vastly different. Stocks trade in nano seconds, real estate on a macro level moves monthly.

Next issue, state or national market trends at a macro level are fine if you have large holdings, geographically dispersed, homogeneity (like assets). A developer will certainly look at economic aspects before bringing a new shopping mall in an area, or a region.

Investors first need to understand that real estate at their level of investing on a micro basis can have very little to do with national or regional markets.

Unlike stocks, where market investors may be world wide, having unlimited supply of similar alternatives with high liquidity, real estate is just the opposite.

Physical aspects-immobility, indestructibility and non-homogeneity, the location can not be moved, land can't be totally destroyed and no two parcels are exactly the same. Economic aspects are scarcity, modification or improvements, permanence of investment or fixity and area preference or "situs" which may include intrinsic values or satisfies other needs.

Real estate is unique, drop back to your Economics 101 class, "factors of production" in economics are land, labor, capital and entrepreneurship. land is the only factor that can not be replaced as a factor or requirement to produce goods or services, all other factors may be substituted, if you have less capital, more labor may be used to obtain the desired outcome.

This aspects, physical, economic and economic principles require a different approach in the analysis of land and improvements.

If investors had relied on national trends in seeking opportunities they would have missed the boat.

As to ratio analysis, some approaches to an asset portfolio may apply, such as the quick asset test or maturity distribution, but they are not adaptable to real estate as they were designed to measure performance of a liquid asset, real estate is not, the approach to asset management is different in maintaining and improving and revitalisation of long term assets.

You can look to other markets as to an investor's opportunity costs, alternative investments, but risk can be a difficult aspect to factor in comparing stock to real estate, or long term market factors to volatile stock prices and slow rates of appreciation. It's apples and oranges.

If you are part of Hotcopper you would see with regularity the number of people posting their technical analysis - their 33%, 50% and 66% retracements, support and resistance levels etc. You don't see this in investment forums for a very obvious reason. They do not work, and even for use in stock trading I question their effectiveness.

 

Agree with you @Pentanol . My assumption regarding the Nyrstar Smelter is just a hope or speculation. Cannot be used to make investment decision otherwise it is gambling.