Longer term trends in inner city Brisbane

Discussion in 'Property Analysis' started by hozi, 11th Jan, 2017.

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  1. hozi

    hozi Active Member

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    Thoughts on the longer-term trends of Inner city Brisbane and the transformation of the Bowen Hills precinct. At present seems like there is more construction of units before any infrastructure being in place. This seems to create a an oversupply of units
    I think this would level out in a few years once infrastructure like offices, retail and dining are in place but what is few years. 2, 3 or 4 years
     
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  2. New Town

    New Town Well-Known Member

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    I think the column of high density along West End, the CBD, the Valley, Newfarm, and Bowen Hills will create a vibrant and exciting area to live for Brisbanites. Especially say younger or retiree types.

    Yes there is probably an over supply in this cycle (but that just maintains lower buyer in prices for longer).
     
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  3. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    I've watched the development of the area you were talking about with quite a bit of attention over the last 5 years.
    I agree that it's going to be a very trendy area and is already moving towards that.
    I think we'll see a bit more retail and so on springing up there also noting that some of the complex is yet to be completed have quite a bit of retail and eating space on the bottom floor and I think it would be assisted with a little bit of green space.
    You could definitely not lose with a detached house in any of those suburbs you've mentioned with apartments you need to be a little bit more strategic and go for something older in a small complex with low body corporate.
     
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  4. CosmicTrevor

    CosmicTrevor Well-Known Member

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    I've been watching development in these areas in detail for the last 3 years. Here are my thoughts;
    • New Farm - great area, close to the CBD, lower density, gentrification is essentially complete. Issues - bits are flood prone from the river, relatively higher cost of entry.
    • Newstead / Teneriffe - quite a lot of development has already occurred and more underway. Good access to shopping/services (James St, Gasworks and Emporium), transport and nightlife. Cost of entry not significantly higher than FV or BH. Main issue is the proliferation of lower quality high density apartments being marketed as 'luxury' when they are turds. Oversupply is an issue, be selective - look for something that would differentiate (view, aspect, size). Some areas will be flood prone as well.
    • Fortitude Valley - diverse area, the best bits border New Farm. A lot of development most of which is low quality high density in my view. Have a look at the corner of Commercial and Ann for an example of a building that is questionable in my view. There are others like it.
    • Bowen Hills - early in the gentrification cycle and therefore a long term play (10+ years). Those who have bought in early will be behind because the cost of entry is not substantially lower than the better areas and this has capped CG (or caused it to go -ve). People in Brisbane know this, thus I expect the majority of purchasers are from interstate or overseas and don't know the area. Some of the marketing is interesting, often referring to proximity to James St, Gasworks and Emporium as a selling point. The reality is buying close to these spots isn't that more expensive (3-5%) so why bother buying in BH? It will be interesting to see how the RNA & King St go, the plan looks sound so there is potential for sure. Beware the high density turds though.
    • Bowen Hills does benefit from proximity to the hospital, this should mean a steady supply of tenants. I personally would not describe BH as trendy or vibrant however ultimately it will become so, it is a question of time.
    Trev
     
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  5. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Great post.
    Agree that building on cnr commercial and anne screams ghetto.
    New Mercedes precinct at breakfast Creek is good for Newstead. Not a major thing but a nice little change.
    New Farm is still very active every square metre there is gold but not for major developments. Still lots of small and very very expensive boutique work going on though. Small subdivisions etc.
    Newstead and Tenneriffe are not easy to lump together whilst some parts of tenneriffe are newsteadish with the high density towers, tenneriffe has houses and all of those expensive Woolstore style refurbs.
     
  6. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Thoughts on Paddington?
     
  7. CosmicTrevor

    CosmicTrevor Well-Known Member

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    I haven't studied the area, sorry. I believe it is popular with locals though. Close to Suncorp and city probably +ve's.
     
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  8. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    What would you like to know? I live there.
    It's one of the premium suburbs for lifestyle.
    Parts are walking distance to cbd and Southbank. Cafes and bars and boutique shops absolutely everywhere.
    Caxton Street/Barracks is also great for bars and entertainment.
    Some nice changes coming in the Inner West Community Plan to connect the innerwest even more to the cbd..
    I would go for something in the eastern part. Walking distance to more amenity there. The western part is beautiful and great for families. The Governprs Governor's house is there. Very expensive renovated Queenslander houses.

    Come and i will show you around. In my opinion it is one of the best suburbs. Only west end/Highgate Hill or New Farm are better for lifestyle. But they are more expensive. What Paddington has over those suburbs though is it doesn't have unit high rises and won't. Its leafy with renovated beautiful homes. Last year it was the Bne suburb that spent the most on renos. Milton is where those high rises are going. Although only south of Milton road and perhaps in 15 years or more south of Heussler Tce where there is lowrise commercial. Anything north of heussler in Milton is basically Paddington and is very nice and established leafy housing whilst still benefiting from all of the new development around Park Rd precinct.

    From an investment pov it will always be strong. It's so close to the cbd and cemented as a very trendy area..Nothing will change that. If you can capture something with cbd views (and your neighbors are already raised or below you) that is gold. The cbd views in Paddington are the closest and some of the best in Brisbane. Only better cbd views are west new farm looking towards Storey Bridge and those are the most expensive pieces of land in Bne.
     
    Last edited: 13th Jan, 2017
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  9. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    G
    Great. Much appreciated.

    Can I ask though how about development potential? Seems many places in Paddington are heritage protected. Do you see that as a positive or negative?

    How about Central Ave? Good street?
     
  10. Whitecat

    Whitecat Well-Known Member

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    Yes a high % are character controlled (note: 'heritage protection' is a listed higher level meaning you can't do anything much at all).
    Character controlled means you can raise and build under, extend, subdivide, play around internally but you cannot demolish or change the look.
    That means Paddington keeps its character and that's what people pay for. When you are that close to the cbd in a leafy oasis it locks in value. That's what residents want. It is definitely a positive.The fact that there are no high rises is a selling point over west end where people feel is been 'overdeveloped' When you have high rises everywhere an enclave of detached character homes within walking distance to the CBD becomes very very sought after. All of the high density development happening around but not in Paddington is a very good thing because it increases the scarcity of the leafy houses and neighborhood feel streets in Paddington.
    Quite a few of the expensive houses in Paddington bought by people migrating from Sydney and Melbourne. .

    That doesn't mean there aren't value add options though.
    People extend and raise small 2 bedroom workers cottages in to huge 5 bedroom 4 bathroom family homes and sell them for nearly 2 million dollars. Its also possible to find land where extra dwelling/s can be built on the back.
    Take a look at new farm (bnes most expensive suburb per m2) where absolutely every square metre is used and townhouses that are architecturally designed but have absolutely no space around them given that they are using the back of a 600 square metre block still sell for more than 2 million. It's a different style of development when you get into the very inner city character controlled zones. You need high quality executive homes.

    Also not every house is pre war so you can do anything you want to a property built past 1945.

    Central Avenue is both walking distance to Rosalie precinct and Given/La Trobe corner. Appeal is cafés and dining and good schools. Balmain is a comparative or Ponsonby Auckland.

    Paddington does have some streets that did flood so you do need to check the flood maps houses in the flood zone seem to go for about 20 to 30% less and sometimes they go for the same price. Paddington is hilly. If you are out of the flood zone you have absolutely no risk due to the landscape.
     
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  11. big max

    big max Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. Very helpful!
     
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