Long term investing and climate change

Discussion in 'Investment Strategy' started by spludgey, 6th Dec, 2019.

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  1. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    youve completely bypassed the argument there. The argument is the climate change gurus are not walking their talk.
    But anyway; so, it's ok then if you are wealthy enough.
    Tim Flannery isn't in that league. What about his purchase?
    No climate emergency.
     
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  2. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    This thread is in the "Investment Strategy" topic. It should be about investing and how environmental changes have impacted on your investment choices.

    Any discussion about climate change / bushfires (beyond localised issues affecting real estate) is off topic and will be removed.
     
  3. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    There was an article recently about the areas at greatest risk from climate change by 2100.
    Climate change costs to hit these Australian regions hardest (paywall)
    Queensland dominates climate change hotspots study - Local - Insurance News - insuranceNEWS.com.au (abbreviated non paywall, although it links to a comprehensive report).

    My home town of Shepparton was high up the list due to river flooding risk. Other risks are from fires, coastal inundation and subsidence.

    Personally I know I won't be around by 2100. The OP mentioned 30 years time - even that is beyond my horizon.

    But this article was about insurance risk, and this may well be what affects properties which are viewed as being potentially at risk in the future. Insurance premiums will rise. The article talks about the numbers of properties which will become uninsurable in the future, and this could become a big factor well before the 30 year timeframe.
     
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  4. Fargo

    Fargo Well-Known Member

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    I think you are confusing hazard reduction and prescribed burns with back burning. Back burning is done as a last resort, lighting a fire along a narrow break such as road, or bulldozed ploughed or mowed strip on the windward side of a fire to burn back into a fire front. Backburning in controlling bushfires to prevent spreading | ClearlyExplained.com
     
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  5. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    Often the terms are intertwined by many.
    Ultimately, they produce the same result. Less fuel to exacerbate the intensity. I think a lot of the attempts to conduct them are thwarted by policy. Doesn't help.
    Investing in established suburban areas with less likelihood of fires is the way to go, I'd say.
     
  6. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    I was actually referring to this post in my discussions, but you are correct I was meaning hazard reduction burns that are done in the cooler months to reduce the fuel load.

    Many prescribed burns that were done 20-30 years ago , would never be given the go-ahead these days due to previous burns getting out of control and destroying property and the findings that came out of the reports or inquiry.
    Then there is the higher incidence of more high risk days now commonly occurring in spring, when many prescribed burns were done.

    And without stating the obvious to fight a fire you need large quantities of water, which is in very short supply in many areas of N.S.W, and disappearing at a phenomenal rate.
    I am under the impression that water that is used to refill tankers and helicopters from private property is replaced free of charge.
    That water (potable) ??? has to come from somewhere .

    Many have mentioned that one of the main drivers of Sydney prices is immigration.
    Will people keep on going there if the smoke issues persist for a long period of time , especially for people with underlying health issues like asthma and other respiratory diseases.
    Its already getting a lot of bad publicity in the U.K and Europe , and pictures of Sydney shrouded in bushfire smoke certainly dont help , due to the harmful particles that makes their way into the lungs if exposed long term .
    Many people come to Australia for the outdoor lifestyle , not the pollution , there trying to escape that and the cold weather.
     
  7. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    once a fire ends, the smoke disappears into the atmosphere after a few hours or days - depends on size of fire and wind - as has done for millions of years.
    I don't think smoke will be an issue for anyone thinking of immigrating to Australia.
     
  8. marmot

    marmot Well-Known Member

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    Even going back to the 1994 bushfires that affected Sydney, how much has the population changed since then.
    A lot more people are living in bushfire prone areas.
    The internet hardly existing then , so there was less coverage.
    And unfortunately the overseas media tend to over report of " Sydney on Fire" and a "State of Emergency ".
    Many from overseas also have a higher awareness of knowledge regarding climate change and how events thousands of km away can effect the current problems facing N.S.W in 3 different ways but all inter-linked..
     
  9. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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  10. Angel

    Angel Well-Known Member

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    People are concerned about the rising sea levels. Use sea water for fire dumping issues, at least in coastal regions.
     
  11. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    Sea water is sometimes used for firefighting, but only when absolutely necessary. It has adverse effects on the environment around, especially creeks and waterways, and equipment has to be cleaned thoroughly afterward, using a lot of fresh water, to avoid corrosion.
     
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  12. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    Maybe we can start to build dams again?
    Or, fire up the desal plants and build more of them?
     
  13. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Not true. Yes, some have been shown to be deliberately lit, but in the case of most of the big fires around Sydney right now (especially Gospers Mountain), they were started by lightning strikes, which can be extremely dangerous when combined with the extremely dry weather we've had.

    Still, your second point is valid - you'd want to be careful buying close to bushland. If drought conditions worsen, it becomes even more dangerous.
     
  14. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    That's kind of the issue - the whole premise of climate change is the prediction for more "extreme" weather conditions - which would include unseasonably cold weather.

    Now, I doubt we're ever going to see the kind of extreme cold here in Australia that can kill people, like they've had in parts of North America and elsewhere - however, unexpected extreme conditions (eg snow and ice in summer) can lead to dangerous conditions for the unwary. I'd guess if you live in or near Thredbo, you'd be largely prepared for cold (and unpredictable!) conditions - I'd think it's more a danger for the visitors.

    There's very few places in Australia where I think cold weather is going to become a real issue - perhaps parts of Tasmania? But even then, I'd be surprised if that had any real impact on real estate and investing.

    I think storms, flooding, fires and drought are more likely to be our biggest threats.
     
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  15. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    Water security is potentially a massive issue into the future - especially if our cities keep growing.

    Sydney's dam levels are currently falling at the fastest rate in decades - and our demand for water is only increasing as population increases.

    Our desal plant is capable of supplying up to 15% of Sydney's water needs and it cost $1.8b to build

    The cost of water to consumers goes up when the desal plant is operational. In many cases, I would think that investors would be able to pass those costs on to tenants - but not all. I don't see the cost of water making a huge difference to investors in Sydney in the short term - but longer term it could become significant?
     
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  16. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    I know this is off-topic, and my post will probably get deleted - but you mentioned it here - and that is a subject that the proponents of climate change never address. Back in 2007, Tim Flannery screamed how "the dams will never fill again" (and then they did, and to this day he has never been called out for it) but exactly none of these people ever link water requirements and the concern over diminishing water supplies with population growth - they are usually in favour of endless population growth. The equation simply cannot work.
    I've been ranting on for years how the two beliefs cannot work - you can't have endless population growth, while at the same time stopping all dams and other measures to harness and store water for the population (and farming) requirements.
     
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  17. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    Lightning strikes are completely beyond our control, and have been occurring since Earth was formed, and are the the main cause of bushfires all over the Planet until humans came along. That won't change - there are simply more people in the way of that natural process. And now, whenever there is a major fire where plots of human constructed things are destroyed, the level of destruction is immediately equated with an increase in the intensity and severity of the fires. It is misrepresenting the facts at best.
    Yes, the recent fires have been enormous, but they have happened before, as has been (attempted to be) shown.
    Two men, including volunteer firefighter, charged with deliberately starting multiple blazes in NSW – myGC.com.au
     
  18. Simon Hampel

    Simon Hampel Founder Staff Member

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    ... and then in 2015, there were calls to permanently mothball the Sydney plant because the dams were full to overflowing and we would never have need for such an expensive "white elephant". It's all politics.

    It's all well and good building more dams - but unless we get consistent rainfall to fill them and keep them full, we're still screwed.

    If we are entering a period of prolonged drought in Sydney's dam catchments, we are facing some very serious issues for Sydney's water supply.

    But then, these are largely macro level issues - which we as individual investors have very little control over. This thread is more about micro-issues - where will we as an individual investors choose to invest and will those decisions be impacted by environment changes.

    Let's try and keep to that topic from here?
     
  19. Kelvin Cunnington

    Kelvin Cunnington Well-Known Member

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    I agree with you, to a degree - politicians never do anything that would waste money, right? :D
    But; as we saw; "the rain will never fill the dams again", so this old cynical head is not prone to listen too closely on these matters.
    On dams; I would have thought (I'm no expert though) we now have enormous technological and mechanical resources to create dams out of existing rivers and waterways without impacting too much on the river flows;
    For example; building/digging a dam area adjacent to an existing river instead of directly across it. Then, once it is all formed and ready to go, dig across to the existing river to allow the water to flow sideways into the new dam.
    Naturally; there would be an initial drop in water level as the dam filled up. But, if the timing of the link up was directly before and during the usual wet period of the year, this would be minimal and short-term impact on the river levels.
    Mind you; in my lifetime I have seen the Murray river go from overflowing, then to "almost walking across it" depth, to overflowing - twice, so I dont subscribe to the argument that dropping water levels is fatal for a river.
    Murray river.jpg
    Plus; back to the desal plants (and I dont want to make this an Aide post or thread); send less Aide elsewhere - I think we provide waaay too much - start spending more money at home, and use some of it to build more desal plants - and get them operational asap. More jobs and so forth.
    Or; give Private Companies (Aus-owned only, of course) incentives and ongoing operational Contracts to do it.
    And finally; (I've said this many times in my life before); there are trillions of gallons of rainfall each year in the North of Aus during the wet season, which flow straight out to sea. It's time all of our hot-air, self-serving Politicians started to formulate plans and budgets to set up extensive pipelines (to new dams) East, West and South. Again; possibly offer incentives and Contracts to the Private Sector (only Aus-owned Companies) to help build and operate them.
    I have never heard a single Politician from any Party even murmur anything along these lines - too busy trying to push water back up hill to make more electricity. :mad:
    All of the above would also make the prospect of investing near these emerging projects attractive.
     
  20. TAJ

    TAJ Well-Known Member

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    If water security is potentially a massive issue into the future, and we are facing more extreme weather events including droughts, wouldn't it make sense to curb population growth?
    Not too good for any investor (anywhere) if we don't have adequate water.
     
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