Long term investing and climate change

A couple of links which I find educational. There are many other bodies conducting investigations into the subject.

https://environment.yale.edu/

Climate Change

You can overcome that by dropping yours into another persons bin - only do it late in the evening ensuring there are not CCTV's around. Works for me.

 

Cooper Pedy and Broken Hill are looking good today

 

I wasn't aware of that. Makes sense. Thanks for the information.

 

You'll have to come live where I do. A few years after we moved into our serene bushland setting housing estate, they bulldozed the forest to beyond the horizon. We now have 1200 residential homesites between us and any forest.

 

The other issue is how sustainable are high levels of immigration.
As our 2 major cities grow at high levels of immigration it puts more and more people into areas impacted by bushfires,serious drought conditions make a lot of these areas almost undefendable.
I think something like 70% of fires are man made, not necessarily deliberately lit, but caused by humans.
And it also impacts on productivity as business are impacted by the fires , people cannot get to work, it also becomes a serious health issue with long term exposure to the smoke particles.
On really bad days there are bans on grinding/cutting and welding outside, for those in agriculture and forestry work it means they might have machinery parked up for days that cannot be repaired and they cannot earn any income .

 

Except in many areas of Australia the "window of opportunity" to do backburning is getting narrower and narrower, then there is the separate issue of backburning becoming an out of control fire with lives lost and property destruction.
Especially as heatwave conditions are now happening in spring and autumn,and these areas are also in drought .Everything stays tinder dry virtually right through winter, one fire on a hot windy day is all it takes, if everything is moist and damp it becomes a lot more difficult for the fire to easily spread.
All this is happening at the same time as more and more people are living in bushfire prone areas.

 

What are the criteria for windows of opportunity?
I would have thought that it is determined by wind direction and velocity.
Are there any stats that show decreasing windows of opportunity?

 

I did a search and found this;
How prescribed burns are planned
Good info.

 

What happens to an ember if it falls into a big pile of moist and damp leaves, compared to falling into very dry tinder or dry leaves.
The air temperature also plays a big part.
In a nice safe controlled environment like a wood fired heater use a hairdryer and watch the effects of heat+wind on a slow burning fire, or just a few remaining embers.
It goes on steriods.

 

If it falls into a pile of dry leaves, it will burn more readily.
But, that is a factor they consider.
It doesn't mean they can't do it; they just have to mitigate the dangers.
Similar to buying an investment property in a way; identify the risks, take appropriate action to minimise risk, and then proceed.
I work on a rescue team where we often have to work at heights. Every single event is a different set of risks...heat, CD, rain, wind, direction, strength, terrain, slope, daylight, darkness, etc.
We identify the risks, assess if we can proceed, and set a plan to complete the mission with utmost safety. CFA do the same type of procedure.

 

More than anything else it will be the broad acknowledgement of inevitable massive sea level rises that are going to be the biggest real estate killer in the decades to come.

 

If the risk is to high to back burn it gets cancelled or postponed, the problem is next week another area is planned to be back burned, and so on , until it becomes to hot to back burn.
You can spend months of planning for back burning and it can all be cancelled that morning if the conditions are wrong and wind forecasts suddenly change.
The risk rating of back burning in extremely dry conditions is totally different than burning in areas with a high moisture content.
Ever tried to get a wood stove/heater going using damp wood and tinder, its hard work.
Do you cancel a rescue because of a wind change and just plan to come back a week later ?
Comparing rescue work to deliberately lighting a fire is like comparing an apple to a watermelon .One is a reactionary action to an immediate problem , the other is creating a dangerous event to deal with an issue that may or may hot happen, it may even cause a far bigger problem with loss of life and property and it was a deliberate event aimed at doing the exact opposite.
Many large fires have started as back burning and gone horribly wrong.
A contributing factor has always been the moisture content or lack of it, in other words you need the right conditions for the fire to spread.

 

These guys dont seem too worried;
Sea Level Rise? President Obama Just Bought a Beachside Property
We’re for Sydney | Daily Telegraph
They are still investing in prime real estate.

 

the CFA know all of that, then assess and mitigate the risks.
Some days they simply cancel the burns as per what you describe.
I would bet that more out of control fires are caused by human lit fires in areas where the undergrowth has not been managed, than from backburns that go out of control in similar areas.

 

I recently passed on a beautiful and otherwise well-priced coastal property because sea level rise maps show that it's likely to be underwater on high tides by 2037. There are a few useful resources for looking at that risk, e.g. Coastal Risk Australia

Here's another useful resource that takes into account the likely effects of a few different climate change factors on insurance risks: How the spread of insurance red zones could trigger a property crunch

 

Obama is wealthy enough to buy a bad investment risk because it is a nice place to live for now. It will increase in value simply because Obama bought it. Also, some beachside properties will be fine with sea level rise. It depends on the property and the location.