QLD Logan- what are the negatives

Discussion in 'Where to Buy' started by New2prop, 21st Aug, 2016.

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  1. Sonyad

    Sonyad New Member

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    Hi all, interesting article about growth and plateaus of greater brisbane spots and south east queensland, confirms the risk how it isnt a sprawling growth like sydney

    http://www.couriermail.com.au/reale...k=6c7b86badcfbce2e878a2f66729ff41a-1485950229

    LOGAN: Growth; Edens Landing, Jimboomba, Slacks Creek, Waterford, Windaroo, Yarrabilba
    (Yarrabilba is due to be a development city in itself)

    IPSWICH -also a developing city in the works

    LOGAN Plateau: Beenleigh, Bethania, Boronia Heights, Cornubia, Crestmead, Daisy Hill, Eagleby, Greenbank, Heritage Park, Hillcrest, Kingston, Logan Central, Logan Reserve, Loganholme, Loganlea, Marsden, Mount Warren Park, Regents Park, Rochedale South, Shailer Park, Springwood, Tanah Merah, Waterford West, Woodridge
     
  2. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    But what's the difference between plateau and consistency?
     
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  3. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    @sash pretty spot on with that Moreton bay vs Logan comparison in that article. Dare say u called winners like officer etc that the stats ppl
     
  4. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Good article...not a surprise....Brissie growth will come from OO as the driver not investors....so much for stats huh?

    Yeah...know what you mean........glad I hedged my bets in Melbourne also....growth will come in Brissie in time...Moreton Bay will lead that growth......lower socio Logan not so much...
     
  5. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Some people seemed to have rose coloured glasses on suburbs they purchased...

    If I put my glasses on, I see the following suburbs plateau (according to some hotspotting expert, that is)... I see some have vested interest in the Red that are Plateau, but yet continue picking on Logan, doesn't make sense to me really

    Plateau:
    MORETON BAY: Albany Creek, Bongaree, Burpengary, Burpengary East, Caboolture, Clontarf, Eatons Hill, Everton Hills, Kallangur, Lawnton, North Lakes, Petrie, Sandstone Point, Scarborough, Strathpine, Upper Caboolture, Warner, Woody Point

    INNER: Brisbane City, Coorparoo, Highgate Hill, Kangaroo Point, New Farm, Paddington, Spring Hill, Teneriffe

    NORTH: Ashgrove, Aspley, Bridgeman Downs, Chermside, Clayfield, Enoggera, Grange, Hamilton, Kedron, Mitchelton, Northgate, Taigum, Wavell Heights, Wilston, Windsor, Wooloowin

    EAST: Balmoral, Carina Heights, Carindale, East Brisbane, Manly, Manly West, Tingalpa, Wynnum, Zillmere

    WEST: Chapel Hill, Kenmore, St Lucia, Taringa, The Gap, Toowong

    SOUTH: Acacia Ridge, Algester, Annerley, Corinda, Drewvale, Durack, Forest Lake, Greenslopes, Holland Park, Holland Park West, Inala, Kuraby, Macgregor, Moorooka, Oxley, Parkinson, Salisbury, Sunnybank Hills, Mount Gravatt East, Tarragindi, Upper Mount Gravatt

    REDLAND: Alexandra Hills, Capalaba, Cleveland, Thornlands.

    LOGAN: Beenleigh, Bethania, Boronia Heights, Cornubia, Crestmead, Daisy Hill, Eagleby, Greenbank, Heritage Park, Hillcrest, Kingston, Logan Central, Logan Reserve, Loganholme, Loganlea, Marsden, Mount Warren Park, Regents Park, Rochedale South, Shailer Park, Springwood, Tanah Merah, Waterford West, Woodridge

    IPSWICH: Bellbird Park, Brassall, Bundamba, Goodna, Springfield, Springfield Lakes
     
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  6. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    we will see jury is still out. give it 3 years and lets compare.

    for the record called werribee growth tick.....moreton bay growth tick...lower socio Logan lack of growth and devie returns tick...


     
  7. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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  8. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

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    "Peenafian"

    upload_2017-2-2_14-48-47.png
     
  9. Spoony

    Spoony Well-Known Member

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    OK so using two examples in an area I'm looking at, I'm wondering how this analyst places each of these suburbs into 'growth' vs 'plateau'.

    Ipswich Growth: Raceview
    Ipswich Plateau: Eastern Heights

    Location wise Eastern Heights is closer to the Ipswich CBD and to rail.
    Current stock EH seems to offer better value vs Raceview, with more properties available under median stats, where as Raceview seems to have plenty over median price. Which does indicate Raceview is certainly moving but I would question how far? What are the drivers to propel it beyond the Eastern Heights example? I would think that with the Ipswich CBD redevelopment taking place, the closer in the better? Perhaps I'm missing something.
     
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  10. Gockie

    Gockie Life is good ☺️ Premium Member

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    But.... Plateau vs. Consistency???
     
  11. Spoony

    Spoony Well-Known Member

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  12. Sydlad

    Sydlad Well-Known Member

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    Looks like they picked the south Logan recovery Screenshot_20170203-063656.png
     
  13. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Here are my toughts...

    Buy in Meadowbrook, Springwood, Drewdale, Rochedale Sth, Regents Park, Browns Plains....good potential for capital growth

    Avoid - Woodridge, Kingston, Logan Central...very high stigma....Brissie ain't Sydney or Melbourne...
     
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  14. Spoony

    Spoony Well-Known Member

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    Really it just depends on the pockets and suburbs of Logan. Many think 'Logan' is Woodridge etc, but is is just a Suburb of Australia's 9th largest city. It's like immediately thinking 'Inala' when someone mentions buying in Brisbane.

    Sash has mentioned some good options. The two major hubs of Logan City are the Springwood area and the Browns Plains area. My PPOR is in Browns Stains (don't hold it against me ;) ) and with zero value add, even with wear and tear it's recent valuation (to extra equity for an IP) has seen 58% growth over the past 10 years. Sure it's not Sydney or Melbourne spec, but for a lower priced market that isn't too bad. Oddly better than many other areas/properties I've been considering for an IP......... :/ Hmmmm.

    Basically the east side of the M1 is generally the more exclusive and pricey areas of logan, the westside cheaper and where on needs to be more careful on suburb and street selection.
     
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  15. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Not a bad capital growth of 58%, considering you purchased closed to the peak of last boom, then we a fall and stagnation during GFC and 2011 flood.

    BP is a great suburb. I had previously made offer to a place behind Westpoint, a townhouse zoned site, but was out bid by a local..
    The Hillcrest/Boronia Heights/Regents Park is also nicer part of Logan.
     
  16. Spoony

    Spoony Well-Known Member

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    Yeah I got in just a before this area had peaked, I wasn't much into property then bar interest in my PPOR value, but it was crazy how quickly it ramped up within 6-12 months of purchase.

    Yes the area certainly dropped off as did much in Greater Brissy around 2011, but has recovered well. Around that time I thought about renting this joint and buying another local a little more suited to some lifestyle requirements, but got worried about 'over committing' (wasn't even thinking long term investment (so naive). I kick myself every day on that one, shopping to make up for it now though.

    I use to live in Sunnybank Hills, and then Daisy Hill/Springwood but buying a PPOR solo Browns Plains was more financially viable at the time. Coming from better areas I got eventually over the 'stigma/mindset' and it's not a bad place, all my neighbours have been wonderful over 10 years so can't complain there.. Traffic can be a concern on certain routes, but a major upgrade of the Gateway/Logan Motorway and great area is about to proceed, which will make a world of difference to the immediate area. It's also go pretty much anything you ever need to buy within the retail area.
     
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  17. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    Thanks for sharing..
    So likely you purchased 12 months before the last peak, which had 15-30% increase since you purchase before the last crash...
    Most who purchased 2008 at the peak, recovered their lost probably until 2013-2014...It has increased 20-30% since then...
    This past chart behavior is observed in most Logan suburbs not just BP, but lower social economic areas as well. Not sure how people have crystal ball that can tell one suburb does better than the other... If you say we have better tenants selection in BP than Kingston, then I would agree.
     
  18. Spoony

    Spoony Well-Known Member

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    Yep totally correct. For me I think closer to 30% increase after purchase, so quite lucky I guess.

    I too have noticed this cycle behaviour so have somewhat been trying to shop suburbs that haven't yet gone past the previous cycle, I figure they've still got more to go, especially if they were previously close in value/cost to others. Various factors to consider though.

    Interestingly at the time 10 years ago I obviously couldn't afford Springwood/Daisy Hill but did look at Slacks Creek. It was a bit too much of a push and Browns Plains and surrounds were certainly more affordable. Move forward to the present and I'd the page is now flipped. Why? I figure BP becoming a central hub for so many feeder suburbs where Slacks Creeks is more of a feeder to Springwood etc??
    Suburbs like Crestmead and Marsden I did also consider, but 10 years ago I thought contained far more shady characters than the areas I looked at in BP. Though these have improved substantially now too. At the time I put it down to a number of sections in those areas with greenfield estates, with rents no more than existing older houses attracting less desired tenants. In contrast more established areas like BP attracted a different type of tenant and seemed to have more OO's or at least more established long term, or aged OO's.

    Obviously this is all in the past but can be useful info on how things have come along over 10 years'. Soooooooooooo this has me thinking perhaps Slacks Creek has some catch up too do? Especially if the talked about Springwood stuff happens.......probably all talk there though.
    I think Logans problem is it has too many major established hubs and no real CBD (though that's part of it's appeal perhaps?) still each is competing to be upgraded. Springwood, Browns Plains, Medowbrook, Beenleigh even too a degree. Ipswich on the other hand has the CBD and some new hubs, but the new ones have taken care of themselves due to their young age, leaving the councils focus and money to be on the CBD.
     
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  19. RetireRich101

    RetireRich101 Well-Known Member

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    I think you're spot on... Logan council seem to have few Master Plan going simultaneously and non completed project in isolation. We might get old to see the completion, or they might get fast tracked somewhere down track.. Like the Marsden shopping expansion...last I heard is that they want a bigger expansion and it's back to the drawing boards..
     
  20. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    As I have said for a while the number of investors in Logan have affected the vacancy rates see the article below. Whilst this is for the whole of Logan...some parts the vacancy rates maybe lower...but overall please take care...there is a ceiling. From my perspective too many vested interests pushing buying there...think outside of the square and do not follow the mob...your ability to buy your next investment property rests on it. The vacancy rates are clear indication where people are buying and where the heard of Southern investors are buying this will afect CG.

    Brisbane vacancy rates have bounced back new data shows - realestate.com.au

    I feel that too many people are promoting Logan and a lot of newbies are too trusting and are going to get burnt.
     
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