Lithium and other battery metals discussion

Aww, credit where credit is due*. Deakin University did those numbers in 2018 which means they were looking into it many years prior. The product was rolled out and Sydney Water's Bondi pumping station installed them in that year.

Sodium-ion batteries are the future of safe energy storage

*credit where credit is due - to the University of Wollongong as well.

 

Bought Pilbara shares a few months ago, atm they are 3 times what I paid for them ...

 

Sodium vs lithium — Sodium is coveted by battery manufacturers due to the material’s greater abundance and lower cost compared with lithium. Plus, lithium is more flammable. However, sodium’s commercialization has been delayed due to its rapid performance decline. For the first time, Argonne National Lab scientists were able to watch in real-time how the atomic structure of the cathode material degraded as it was rapidly cooled. With improvements to the manufacturing process, this discovery could lead to a 20% to 40% increase in battery performance.

 

Nice



A friends been holding Lynas these last few years

 

Guess which one @Redwing

2019



2020



2021

 

Time to refresh this thread:

Using the 5 stages of a mine's lifecycle (happy to have others suggested) - (1) Prospecting and exploration; (2) Assessment and approval; (3) Construction; (4) Production; (5) Reclamation - there's been movement between stages of listed miners, and entry by others.

There are several miners who have now signed offsets (e.g. LTR, CXO), moving into production and who have had the equivalent share price rise and are in the $1-2 range. The established miners already in production (e.g. PLS) are reflecting the commodity price at $3-4.

There are several at stage 1 and 2. I'd like to have some discussion and debate about prospects of those (perhaps currently at 2-20c) and their journey towards production. This could possibly be in the 10 bagger thread, but it's why I believe it deserves its own thread.

Here are some thought starters: These are in "speculation" phase.
MRR: Being run and explored by the same people who ran and explored for PLS. Run by CEO Pedro Kastellorizos and exploration run by George Karageorge (geologist and discoverer of PLS), they have bought 14 tenements, mostly in the Pilbara, that Karageorge spotted while he was doing exploration for PLS. Of the WA based lithium-focused explorers, I consider this "best chance" of getting up. Currently at 6c

AZL: Very few US based lithium-focused producers are listed on ASX as their main listing domicile (which helps offset currency risk). Their are a number of risks with this listing, as well as a number of positives. The risks include: being on the verge of approval by the US Bureau of Land Management which has been delayed for more than 4 months (BLM say this is because of lack of assessment staff internally, not because inherent issues with the approval application or process); 2nd capital raising just announced - they have more than enough cash for feasibility without needing it, upsetting current holders; near a sensitive land parcel of natural springs and indigenous lands - negotiations around these have been going for some time, should have been concluded by BLM announcement and haven't. These add up to concerns about management, not the mine's prospects. The positives are about the exploration results from the 4% of site explored. More than 180 holes to be dug, good yield so far. Also close to Ford and other producers who will want the output (although not likely to be Tesla for a number of reasons). Currently at 15c, capital raising at 12.5c with option for split 2 for 1 at 18c. Would love to have others suggested.

SYA: a current darling, they have doubled their production forecast and share price has doubled in the last month, although they are at 90% overbought on volume, so a good chance they'll drop next before rising again.

FFX: only mentioning as it has both gold and lithium as hedges

AVZ: Not in production yet, though share price equivalent of CXO, with sovereign geographic risk with mine in DRC.

Lots more to discuss and speculate, happy to hand over to others for a bit.

As always, not advice, DYOR

 

Also add in Allkem (ASX:AKE), the merger of Galaxy and Orocobre, is well established (stages 2, 3 and 4). Involved with both production and development of multiple Spod and brine resources in Australia, Argentina and Canada plus lithium hydroxide plant in Japan, built and now coming on stream.

 

Thanks @Mark F , yes, a well established player, would have added them in with PLS, was focusing more on stage 1 suggestions.

Something to consider if people are interested in more established, later stage and less speculative buys are direct investment in the larger lithium producers globally (e.g. Jiangxi Ganfen in China, Albemarle in USA, Tianqi Lithium in China, SQM in Chile - these will of course require accounts that allow overseas trading).

There are also ETFs in the EV area, ACDC particularly.

Would love to hear about evidence of future potential CXOs, LAKs and LTRs.

 

Argo

 

Some of the valuations being put on some lithium stocks bewilder me when they are so far off production. Offtake agreements shouldn't mean much if you don't have the product to sell, but the market sees it differently.

I've been in AGY for a few years (currently up 250%), and yet despite being a matter of weeks away from finishing their construction build and producing the market values it multiple times less than others who are basically at the "potential" stage. Sure AGY might be in Argentina, but geez, it's a funny old word sometimes.

Mind boggles.

 

Yes, it is amazing the value placed on press releases, powerpoints and pixie dust. Read the dream which inevitably doesn't mention the extra ten years and a billion dollars or so to make it reality. Having learnt over some years I now buy in when production is imminent or just started and the endless cash raisings are over. Saves a heap of stress and produces far better results. You may not buy in the cents range but far less issues of losing the lot.

 

I bought these for my children and told them not to sell as they could be worth a lot of money in 5-10 years ...

 

A good diagram/article to understand what's going on can be found here:
Visualizing the Life Cycle of a Mineral Discovery

The 2-20c stocks (MRR, AZL, etc.) that are still in exploration/speculation stage. Are they all equal? No. Some have proven management teams and sites near other discoveries (MRR), some have drill results on a portion of their claims that demonstrate what there may be on the rest (AZL). These attract speculators rather than industry funds. Those that don't have evidence of potential often get dragged up by the others by speculators who haven't done their research and are experiencing FOMO. A rising tide lifts all boats (even those that will eventually sink).

The trick is to get out at the peak of the discovery phase when the real money is needed to fund $1b of construction. This is when the big boys come in. It can then take years to get back to where it was if you didn't get out.

Then it's offtake agreements and production schedules (CXO, etc.), less risky, slower growth than speculative. Good time to get back in, as you mentioned. It's great to be either, even better to be both.

Here is what CEO of PLS has to say about why lithium prices and share prices are rising, and when he thinks they will level out and start to drop:
This is why Pilbara Minerals boss Ken Brinsden believes miners will keep winning the lithium boom - Stockhead

 

I always have a chuckle at that minerals lifecycle chart. It's used by a lot of miners in the post initial speculation phase where they are struggling to find capital to build plant and machinery and they try and convince you the big rewards are "just around the corner"

It doesn't only apply to miners....overlay a 5-year Afterpay chart onto it and it is exactly the same shape...

 

LTR went over $2 today. IF I had kept the ones I bought a few years ago they’d be worth 2 million bucks today. IF. IF only.

 

LYC is now at $11.39 I'll have to check in with my friend, I think he was looking to take profits if it went over $11

 

There was a nice lift in LYC over the last couple of days (+$0.74) - now back at a new ath. AKE on the other hand has skyrocketed by $1.90 (17%) in two days and just released a very positive strategic plan and resource upgrades this morning. Glad I own both in quite large quantities.

 

Why did you sell then?

 

Because I took 10K profit after only a few days. I was thinking short term not long term.

 

Hey @Mark F, planning of getting into SYA for exactly this reason, as well as new legislation requiring local minerals in vehicles in US.