LIC & LIT Listed Investment Companies (LICs) 2019

Discussion in 'Shares & Funds' started by Nodrog, 1st Jan, 2019.

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  1. ChrisP73

    ChrisP73 Well-Known Member

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    @RogTheBear - Any plans to publish your 40 pager for pc lic thread readers?
     
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  2. pippen

    pippen Well-Known Member

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    All i can gather from all the yoga poses is in the doom and gloom times get blind drunk and work on yoga poses
     
  3. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  4. geoffw

    geoffw Moderator Staff Member

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    The roaring twenties are about to start.
     
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  5. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Whatever it takes:). Beats jumping out of the window in a high rise building:cool:.
     
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  6. pippen

    pippen Well-Known Member

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    I do recall reading in an old school classic book during the 1929 crash people were asked when checking into new york hotels whether they were intending to jump when they requested a top level with a view and balcony! :D

    Anyway argo is due to be purchased soon, div income from argo is approaching 10k b4 franking! Its slowly getting there for me!
     
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  7. Burgs

    Burgs Well-Known Member

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    Good on you RogTheBear , it would be great for a brief summary of your findings of the various LIC's and ETF's.

    Stockspot recently did this comparison of LIC's Versus ETF's link: We compare LICs vs ETFs, which is best? makes interesting reading.
     
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  8. Pier1

    Pier1 Well-Known Member

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  9. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    Very interesting. Investing wise holding Cash appears to be looking like a terrible choice:eek:. With increasingly rapid change / disruption the “self-cleansing” nature of indexing will become an even more relevant and powerful investing and risk management strategy:

    Hypergrowth in technology means that we will be battling with deflation for the rest of the century, as the cost of production and price of everything falls off a cliff. That makes our 10-year Treasury bonds a steal at a generous 2.60% yield, a full 460 basis points over the real long-term inflation rate of negative 2% a year.

    US Treasuries could eventually trade down to the 0.40% yields seen in Japan only a couple of years ago. This means that the bull market in bonds is still in its early stages and could continue for decades.

    The upshot for all of these technologies will rapidly eliminate poverty, not just in the US but around the world. Each industry will need to continuously reinvent its business model or disappear.

    The takeaway for investors that stocks, as well as other asset prices, are now wildly undervalued, given their spectacular future earnings potential. It also makes the Dow target of 1 million by 2100 absurdly low, and off by a factor of 10 or even 100. Will we be donning our “Dow 100 Million” then?
     
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  10. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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  11. Nodrog

    Nodrog Well-Known Member

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    :rolleyes:
     
  12. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Wonder what deeming rate the Guvmunt applies to gold? Rhetorical question, no need to answer.

    On a much more serious note and nothing to do with investing, as the year draws to a close spare a thought (and offer money or whatever you can) for those who are breaking their backs with all the fires around the place. Where I live may have been covered in the smoke haze for three weeks and probably longer but it's nothing in comparison for those on the ground or who have lost everything and possibly hope to rebuild.

    For a lot hope is all they left.
     
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  13. Dsign

    Dsign Well-Known Member

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    Does anyone know where to find something that tracks your total dividends for the year ? Like Sharesight but with a column noting what the approx dividend total p.a is?
     
  14. DoggaPP

    DoggaPP Well-Known Member

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    Doesn't your share registry do that?
     
  15. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    Leaving it to EoFY and the ATO will do it for you via auto-fill could be one way of dealing with it.
     
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  16. RogTheBear

    RogTheBear Well-Known Member

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    So, no, I haven't considered publishing my 40 page doc as it was specifically written for the couple I mentioned and aimed to take them on a journey from ignorance to having some confidence about investing.

    And it started off with "I have no interest in what you do with your money, am not trying to pitch anything other than an idea at you, and if you choose to adopt the idea, would not be involved in the actual mechanics of it, apart from structural advice. I would not benefit from it. If we never speak of it again, that's fine too."

    I will at least have tried.

    I then roamed widely over superannuation (the business I'm in), various risks - foreseeable and unknowable - before getting into detailed analysis of LIC performance over a long period, using graphs to make various points along the way about how things went before, during and after the GFC.

    There's nothing in the conclusion that isn't well understood by regular contributors to this thread.

    There are many people blogging about this stuff, and I don't particularly want to be another one. When I get back to work next week I may have a look at it and see if there's anything I've said that would be worthy of discussion here, but I've posted various smaller snippets of data along the way here already.
     
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  17. RogTheBear

    RogTheBear Well-Known Member

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    I was just reading this... coincidentally.

    I've little doubt that it's the smarter retirees who don't invest in gold, that are now pushing the LIC prices up ahead of what I'd call "fair" value - which is a nebulous concept in my head somewhat divorced from price vs. NTA.

    Yields, I assume, will drop a little and it will cost more to baseline your retirement if you want to live off LIC/ETF dividends and not touch the capital. I'm still working, so I can always work longer if the pile needs to be bigger...

    Better it happens now than in 2 years time.
     
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  18. SatayKing

    SatayKing Well-Known Member

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    You're likely to be correct. We were warned of this possibility some months ago by the Managing Director of AFI in the quotes below. Probably those running other LICs are thinking along the same lines if ARG increasing its cash holdings from $100m to $300m is any indication.

    Plus those who are newly invested in LICs may not be aware of the circumstances which applied last FY with the number of specials and haven't factored that in as I'm guessing they only look at the yield - which is currently getting smaller it seems.

     
  19. KayTea

    KayTea Well-Known Member

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    Sharesight does that. Just change the setting in top-left drop-down menu to 'in the last year', and make sure you have the 'show monetary gains' button ticked.
     
  20. IrishDigger

    IrishDigger Well-Known Member

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    On the subject of Cash Holdings, given that I also have also increased my cash holdings thus reducing my exposure to the Stock Market, the following topic caught my attention,

    Why you should watch interest rates like a hawk in 2020 // Motley Fool Australia

    Fair enough, some of you are not a fan of The Fool but there you go.

    Cheers.
     
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