Lindsay David predicts real estate bubble will pop end of 2017

If it pays off very, 10 to 1 leverage + at a minimum.

 

It depends on your time frame, interest on short are cheap as chip cost me around 4% PA
I been shorting CBA quite successfully for a while probably up 50K so far in profit
but I short big so I only need it to move. 5% - 1% for me to close the position

 

Yes you can held indefinitely but there is a cost on borrowing and liable for dividend payment

most short trader like me wont hold long, I use hit and run tactics , when it has a good run I short
then it drop .5% or 1% I am gone and keep repeating the trade over and over again
can do hundred of trades in a year

but while holding short and it has scandal break out it the sweetest thing of all, boom mega profit like the CBA money laundry break out while I hold short, thank you I take that and close up.

I also do the reverse when I see it drop too far and I think it can do a leg up, I long the trade, so over a period of a month or two I can have long and short position in the same stock

 

Properties is @#$@#$ hard work once you are good at shorting and know how easy it is to make money on dodgy business

I look for dodgy business and I short them and I look for darling that massively over value and I short them

 

Current short position on the big 4 banks are around 4bn gives or takes
1.3bn for CBA
1.6bn for WBC
500m each for NAB and ANZ

going by that number more people are bearish on WBC with the current price and I open a short with WBC yesterday $33.41 let see how we go by Friday

 

Correct as of May 24, 2016.

What happened to the other $5bn?

 

My quote was in aussie, PandS in US
?

 

I think less people are shorting Aussie banks. This is strange as I would have thought they are at more risk now than in May 2016.

As of APR 5, 2017, Short positions in big Aussie banks have shrunk by more than $4 billion

"After a sustained build-up, bank short selling reached a peak in May 2016. The majors were under fire amid calls for a royal commission into poor conduct, increased regulation and uncertainty about the medium-term interest rate outlook.

Those fears appear to have eased, as this chart tracks the reduction in short positions over the last 12 months"​

Read more at CHARTS: Short positions in big Aussie banks have shrunk by more than $4 billion

 

I would have also thought so? Clutching at straws here, maybe the apra restrictions on IO may have had an impact?

 

You could be right. Bringing down the proportion of investor loans vs OO loans would be seen as making the banks more secure. Reducing IO loans vs P&I loans is another step to making the banks more secure. Considering markets run on perception, not reality, merely creating the perception that banks are more secure now than 12 months ago could be enough to reduce shorting on Australian Banks.

 

I'm the opposite to you, I am happy to go long and put in the effort with real estate because I know there is a significant amount of wealth to make.

 

I am not saying you cant make money out of properties, I said it is hard work, I have both so I know but I prefer the stock market, I can generate much faster capital gain, faster wealth and more cash flow

 

I agree with your approach. Its smart. You're playing to your strengths and preferences which makes sense and good strategy.

 

These hedge fund short on Aussie banks close their position a while ago and cut their loss
they may be back but those articles are fairly dated.

I would say at some stage when there is a catalyst for banks downturn they will be back
that what they do these guys sometimes they lose sometimes they win but you can be sure they are already ready to take the next bet

people complain about large fund have an advantage but I said they are at a disadvantage compared to a guy like me, because their position is so large they cant hit and run, they have to be in it for a period of time with share price steadily decline 20-30% over time.

with me, I can come in and out without affecting the share price when these guys move they move the price with it so it a long and slow drawn out process

 

I was looking at some stats presented at a conference yesterday - the value of housing commencements is down about 10%, commercial, civil is on the up and up... rarely do we see all sectors moving as strongly.

 

lol hahaha. Well said!

 

Mid November. No pop. Tick tock @Ldavid. Tick tock.

Tagging @Barny. Is it going to happen? Or will he republish his book as Australia Boom to Correction. That would be hilarious!

 

That's funny that's exactly what happened in 1890 and 1930.

Guess this time must be different because....

 

Not if you know what you're doing. Its easy money.

 

Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.