Liberal MP John Alexander: Australia faces worse house price crash in 130 years

I am not 100% sure but I think the job keeper is a concern only for people who have no jobs to go back to?? This is the concern and whether unemployment figures jump to 10%+?? We just dont know

 

I think you are correct but i think the vast majority on Jobkeeper will have a job to go back too. After all that is why the taxpayer is currently fitting the Jobkeeper bill.

 

Sadly my daughter wont. She’s in Melbourne

 

I feel for your daughter, that must be tough.
Would you be able to share your daughters current job situation. How many staff will be laid of once jobkeeper ends? Sound like the business will not re open?

 

Sure 38 staff were made redundant, there will be no job to come back to

She was give a redundancy package which was generous. Hopefully she can secure another job

 

Any chance you would share what type of industry this is in, Im just trying to figure out why some companys are doing this rather than bouncing back?

 

prefer not to mention company, it is hospitality industry

 

Firstly, some businesses have gone bust regardless of JK
some business have been artificially propped up by JK and may close when JK finishes
for many the industry has suffered so its not a case of turning the economy back on once JK finishes cashflow wise

take gyms for an example, closed for months, and will have social distancing for a while, previous memberships may have cancelled, wont resign, the staff that are on JK will now be hemorrhaging cash once it finishes, when turnoever hasnt recovered

 

Remember the situation pre-coronavirus? The economy was regressing and a recession was looming.

Once Jobkeeper is removed, I think many more jobs will not return than originally envisaged. This is either as a consequence of companies using Jobkeeper as a convenient, short-term way to support employees a little longer or they are now economically unviable to continue without Jobkeeper payments. Also, whilst Australia flattened the curve more successfully than most others, the global economy is in meltdown and Australia cannot escape the effects of this. It is not business as usual.

I'm not all doom and gloom because I do think there is a reward as a direct consequence of doing so well with flattening the curve. If the right strategic decisions are taken, the country should be better prepared and in a better position than many other countries to take the opportunities once global economic stimulus starts awakening.

 

Im trying to be optimistic but why would these gym users not come back or resign there memberships? For these people fitness is there life, surely they will go back.

 

optimism is good!
my workplace, we've cancelled all our memberships, we dont know when we will open, but there is rumours that it will be allowed to open for 20 ppl at a time, I expect some people to not come back at all due to being lazy (who hasnt signed up for a gym membership and not gone after a few times), some people wont come during 20 ppl restrictions
but maybe people have gotten fat during lockdown and will flock to gyms

 

Certainly Scomo/Frydenberg would disagree with your first paragraph.

 

2019 was the precipice of global decline, world trade shrunk, population shrunk, global debt increased.. now a pandemic hits... and people are optimistic about the next 12 months? I don’t think people even look at what underpins the economy, they think the ASX and the housing market are the economy.

Debt is an increase in current spending in exchange for a decline in future spending, unless you use it to generate a future income stream to repay the principal and interest.

“When a state has mortgaged all of its future revenues, the state by necessity lapses into tranquility, languor and impotence“ -Hume 1752

You can’t fix a debt problem with more debt... unless that debt is used to create future earnings that pay off BOTH principal and interest.Yet , the debt issuance is for consumption, to keep the current Jenga set solvent, and people are optimistic?

GDP is going nowhere, real physical investment is going nowhere. This is a decade long problem. Unemployment will not recover globally for 5 years.

 

I said i was "trying" to be optimistic at least.
So are you one of these people saying house prices will drop up to 30% I can't see it happening, any cheap housing that pop up are just snapped up by savvy investors that are cashed up quicker than a first home buyer can say what is HOME BUILDER FOR

 

I think prices will fall 5-15 % depending on location then do nothing for 5-10 years.

Nothing as in track CPI

 

A family friend of mine is a regional manager for a large gym franchise and we discussed this very point. He explained they had to freeze ALL memberships and where this hurts the most is gyms actually make quiet a lot of money from unused memberships.
People that sign up and never go or go once every few months. So whilst no doubt the gym junkies will be back, they are going to lose a lot of this revenue as these people aren’t signing back up.

 

Absolutely Not! I definitely still see a lot of grey skies BUT and it’s a big BUT, I myself am considerably more optimistic than I was as far back as 1 month ago.

Im very surprised just how quickly life is returning to normal. Going to my suburbs main drag with cafes, going shopping centers, traffic on the roads. I can no longer spot any difference to pre-Covid.
And if we consider travel, countless people are chomping at the bit. The second boarders up watch the number of booked flights.
Life returning to normal is happening WAY faster than I envisioned.

 

It's interesting..... I am selling around twice as many of my 'Guide to Buying a Block' as normal. . . . If I was in the market I wouldn't be looking to buy a block before October.

 

Yes that would be a big hit for sure. Eventually if gym can remain open long enough these type of customers will sign up again.

 

What are you expecting to be different after October?