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Lastest Investor volume numbers

Discussion in 'General Property Chat' started by C-mac, 15th Jun, 2016.

  1. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Hi folks,

    Michael Yardney published these stats recently:

    Fifty percent of those who buy an investment property sell up in the first 5 years and A.T.O Statistics show that of those who stay in the game:
    • 73% of property investors (1,284,852) only own one investment property
    • 18% of investors (318,295) own two investment properties
    • 5% of investors (96,991) owned three investment properties
    • 2% of investors (34,967) own for investment properties
    • 1% of investors (14,555) own five investment properties, and
    • Only 15,264 Australians own 6 or more properties
    It got me to thinking... how many rental properties exist in Australia, right now? It doesn't matter whether they are currently rented or not.

    Also, how would you read the numbers above? Is it safe to make the assumption that of these numbers, the total 'volume' of rental properties owned, and existing today, across all of Australia, is 1,284,852?

    What I am trying to get a feel for is some kind of analysis that looks like this (numbers made up, as an example):

    • Total number of residential properties in Australia today: 10,000,000 (for example)
    • Total number of these that are owner-occupied, or state-owned (held in probate or whatever), or privately owned and left vacant (I.e., not used for rental purposes): 8,715,148 (for example)
    • Total number of residential properties owned by investors or classed as investment (whether they are currently letted, or vacant, doesn't matter): 1,284,852 (for example)
    From these results I'm hoping to get a gauge of just how much of the total residential property "pool" is owned by investors as a %, and then look at some numbers from there. For instance, taking Yardney's numbers above, it looks like 14,555 humans own 72,775 of all of Australia's rental properties. If 10,000,000 dwellings exist, that means 5X owners, own 0.0072% of Australian dwelling stock etc.

    I guess properties owned in Trust etc. wouldn't be counted in these numbers, so there'll never be a data purity to any of this.

    If anyone has any interesting numbers/stats relevant to this, would love you to post them!
     
  2. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    If it comes from the ATO then I would assume it includes trust as people, companies and trust need to declare income/deductions for tax purposes. Even if the losses are kept within the company/trust it would still be a rental.
     
  3. Dan Donoghue

    Dan Donoghue Well-Known Member

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    I'm gonna say somwhere around 2,547,170

    I took the 6+ and figured 8 was a good average???

    Investors Multiplier Total
    1,284,852 1 1,284,852
    318,295 2 636,590
    96,991 3 290,973
    34,967 4 139,868
    14,555 5 72,775
    15,264 8 122,112
    TOTAL 2,547,170
     
  4. Redom

    Redom Mortgage Broker Business Member

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    Theres about a 70/30 split between owner occupier and rental dwellings. Thats been pretty consistent over the last 30 odd years - there may have been a slight increase by a percentage point or two in rental dwelling percentages over the last 3-4 years. I'm not sure about the total number of dwellings across the country though, somewhere near that 10 mill mark.
     
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  5. Dan Donoghue

    Dan Donoghue Well-Known Member

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    Phwoar!!!, that puts my number pretty damn close ;)
     
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  6. Steven Ryan

    Steven Ryan Mortgage Broker Business Plus Member

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    Yep, what I've read agrees with @Redom.

    @C-mac, you'll find the ABS publishes most of this info :)
     
  7. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Are holiday homes classed as O/O's or IP's?
     
  8. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    I will yake it as a stat calculation. :D
    Here is the calculation to cslculate total number of rental properties.

    • 73% of property investors (1,284,852) only own one investment property
    1284852 - 318295 (people with two properties) = 966557 (people with 1 property)
    • 18% of investors (318,295) own two investment properties
    318295 - 96991 = 221304 (people with two properties) * 2 = 442608 properties.
    • 5% of investors (96,991) owned three investment properties
    96991 - 34967 = 62024 (people with 3 properties) * 3 = 186072 properties.
    • 2% of investors (34,967) own for investment properties
    34967 - 14555 = 20142 (people with 4 properties) * 4 = 81648 (no. Of properties)
    • 1% of investors (14,555) own five investment properties, and
    Finally, taking an average of 8 for the remaining people, 14555 * 8 = 116440 propertirs
    • Only 15,264 Australians own 6 or more properties
    So, the total becomes = 966557+442608+186072+81648+116440
    = 1793325.:D:cool:
     
  9. Dan Donoghue

    Dan Donoghue Well-Known Member

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    Why are you taking away the other numbers? They are percentages of the whole. ie the 78% with 1, doesn't include the remaining 22% with 2+
     
  10. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    Usually, counts in such cases are cumulative. Thatbis, it will usually be a unuon and not intersection (in stats terms).

    Are you sure people with 5 properties are not included in 4 which in turn are not inluded in the count of people with 3 properties and so on? It does not mentions anywhere in the article.o_O

    Regards
     
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  11. Big Will

    Big Will Well-Known Member

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    • 1% of investors (14,555) own five investment properties, and
    • Only 15,264 Australians own 6 or more properties

    I would assume not considering 15k have more than 6 but only 14k (~1k less) have 5 more.
     
  12. Dan Donoghue

    Dan Donoghue Well-Known Member

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    The percentages add up to 100 so I figured each sector was not inclusive of another :)
     
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  13. ashish1137

    ashish1137 Well-Known Member

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    Probably, you might be right. :)
     
  14. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

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    lot of people have empty blocks, lifestyle rural blocks, and holiday places, hell I know people who have inner city units just so the family can crash there instead of the long 30 min drive to the edge of inner city :)
     
  15. House

    House Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Close but no cigar- "Of the total property market, 2.6 million dwellings with a combined value of $1.37 trillion"
    CoreLogic
     
  16. C-mac

    C-mac Well-Known Member

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    Thanks mate. Wait, is that 2.6 total dwellings between owner-occ and rental? Or 2.6 pure rental properties. If there's around 10 million dwellings in the country (which is one number I read), then that 2.6 figure - roughly 26% - is consistent with everything else I've read, that puts rental stock at between 25-30% of all housing stock.
     
  17. JK200SX

    JK200SX Well-Known Member

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    You can probably look at it the other way and possibly conclude that ~22 Million Australians don't own property?
     
  18. spludgey

    spludgey Well-Known Member

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    I believe that, unfortunately, all the maths in this thread is incorrect. I own 10 IPs and my wife owns two IPs, yet we only own 10 IPs together.
    None of the numbers give an indication of how many of those properties are in joint tenancies, so it's impossible to calculate numbers. Plus, I don't agree with the number "8" being the multiplier of "6 or more" as a few people with many properties to their name could lift this average well above 8.
    Finally, this doesn't appear to account for properties owned in trusts and the like.

    Sorry for being a party pooper!