Just went 95% cash in Super - Share Market Correction

lol, or coffee!
edited to add I am not sure what @Nodrog has in his veins as I can not even look at his last post! Those mushrooms!!!!

 

I think you have taken out of context. It isn't about macho man or stereotyping a man does better than female.
A quick dictionary link
BALLS-OF-STEEL | 1 Definitions of Balls-of-steel - YourDictionary
(slang) Courage, audacity.

 

Thanks for the link.

 

Joke


Head.

 

Hi, didn't want to stare at the share prices so read other posts. This reminds me of the GFC time when we were sort of divided about whether buying shares was the right thing to do.

Someone commented that I needed big cohones to do what I said.

At that time I didn't respond but I wanted to say us X chromosomes got no cohones!

KY

 

Its coming, any day now.

 

it is not about chromosomes , it is your willingness to stick to YOUR plan ( or not )

and whether a sudden change of plan is in your best interests ( or not )

now i wasn't investing in the GFC ( i didn't start until 2011 )

so all i can do is learn from history ( or not )

HOWEVER if you suspect another big downturn ( i do ) find yourself a reliable calculator , keep it close and keep spare batteries .. if in doubt crunch numbers , you won't get every decision right , but at least you will know you tried hard in uncertain times /

cheers

 

now i expected a crash in mid-March 2013 quite obviously i got it wrong , but instead of rushing to cash , i tilted towards ( my idea of ) ' safe havens ' and several of those did very well ( and others didn't ) despite the market resilience ( mind you corporate bonds still offered nice rewards for the risk taken then )

in March 2020 i had some reserve cash , and managed some buys at good prices ( i did not need to sell to free up cash , so resisted being excessively greedy

currently i have built up cash reserves ( so far ) slightly higher than March 2020 with some more cash coming with the CCL takeover

i aim to endure ( survive ) if there is a downturn in the next two years rather than 'beat the market ' although my current entry prices are fairly low , so i MIGHT do that by accident , since a lot of my holdings are not 'hot stocks '

i would rather small buys at pre-determined prices on the way down ( yes the brokerage bites fairly severely ) rather than chase up , and when i miss the bottom as i usually do it is only a small order unfilled , and i have done OK , rather than super-star gains AND i can decide if to reduce on the way up not hanging out for a 10% retraction

 

That’s the problem with expecting a crash. I have been expecting a crash for the last 2 years. When it did come 12 months ago, i pretty much missed it expecting a bigger and longer crash. So here I am again expecting a crash. Except this time I don’t really much much sitting on the side line. I have stuck to the plan of putting all spare cash to work right away rather than waiting for the next crash.
Even if we do get another crash, will it get below the last crash?
That I am not expecting. Maybe we get somewhere between 10%-20%. Maybe more but maybe less.

I am still in aggressive accumulation mode, so sitting around year after year waiting for the next crash is not part of my plan. I have the ability to draw some money against my PPOR at cheap rates. If a crash does show up then i will use a small amount of debt to pick up more equities at a discount.

I agree things are looking frothy, but that’s mostly the US market. Aus is not looking ridiculously priced considering how low interest rates are and the amount of money looking for a home. While a drop could come at some point, I think In general all assets are moving higher this year.

 

That’s the thing about timing the market, really hard to do and every time a significant correction happens, it really does feel like this time could very well be devastating.
At the end of the day one has to take the path of least regret, and this is different for each individual.

I agree with the amount of stimulus that is going to be floating around and the interest rates where they are asset prices seem likely to keep going up and we are seeing this in some areas already.

This is not advice in any way.

 

well March 2020 was about what i was expecting about 7 years earlier , but i also realized i had to force capital growth ( without a massive loss of capital ) , so i could risk say 95% cash and trivial net growth either ,
however a different investor might have done very well in short term notes , waiting for the market to turn down
in most places the ASX looks too over-priced for me to park my reserve cash in there

i am about 5% cash and will have to be comfortable in the 5% to 10% range before the next big downturn .. all a matter of compromise ( a bird in the hand is worth 2 in the bush )

i have a majority of my div. paying shares participating in a DRP so some automatic accumulation is in progress .

 

@Simon Hampel did you end up buying at the low during covid?

 

TLDR: Overall, having flexibility in your investments allows you to reposition to take advantage of opportunities, whether it is a market drop or a discounted collectable you can flip in a year or 2 and triple your money

For me it is about being flexible enough to take advantage of opportunities if they present themselves.

When last years drop happened I reassessed our emergency fund and used it aggressively to buy discounted ETF/Stock. I knew that we would be able to live with a much reduced emergency fund and it was an opportunity too good to pass up.

Did I think the market could go lower? Sure, it was all over the media but the prices presented were still a significant discount so I purchased every couple of weeks until the emergency fund has depleted.

Now that the market as mostly recovered, we are building up the emergency fund again (in offset against PPOR) which will serve us well as a buffer in case of an emergency but also as an opportunity fund if something presents itself.

Some might suggest that if we can live with a smaller emergency fund then why build it back up. Spending most the fund was a calculated risk, yes we could still live and handle minor extra costs but if something larger happened we would have had to delay rectifying that problem which could cause undue stress/hardship. Building the fund back up allows a larger cash position to cover many outlier events that may occur and also give us that piece of mind whilst still working for us against the PPOR interest in addition to taking advantage of opportunities.

 

i would rather not flip shares , i have got that wrong twice before , flipping works best for me when i sell on the news of a capital raising and buy those shares back in the SPP ( when the SPP is cheaper than selling price ) i did have one occasion where the flip into the SPP was planned but the share price went significantly below the SPP so bought on market

( but that was an opportunity , not the plan )

yes i am calmly building cash reserves currently , a lack of current opportunities is making that easier


good luck this year .. opportunity might visit again

 

You guys still all in cash?

 

Too early to celebrate? I don't believe that the latest CPI print means a Fed pivot is around the corner.

 

Don't know about celebrating. But taking risk measured positions makes sense to me. I'm never about trying to catch the bottom.

 

My thinking is that one of the Fed chairs can go hard in his speeches and all those gains could we wiped out, so to my mind this 'risk measured position" is simply a gamble.

Not having a go at you @Sackie , just trying to understand how these Market fluctuations work.

 

After the latest IP, I am still in cash... so I decide to take a long holiday with it for now.
Just being here to read and spend my time as I have nothing else to do such as seeking new houses to buy or play around with btc and lithium stocks

 

All good mate didn't think you were. To me, the big boys enter markets in stages but when they do they often leave a massive footprint. I'm sure there'll be some negative news in the future and then after stocks rise they'll be a pullback etx. I can't speak for others. All I can say is I try to look for institutional money going into the market and then I take positions on their side. Nothing is ever certain so it's all a probabilities game and risk management for me.


In my Dow Jones thread has bottomed a week ago I posted I felt I saw a lot of institutional money going into the market so I took positions. I guess we all go to do what's right for us as individuals.