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June 2015 Property Clock

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by peastman, 24th Jun, 2015.

  1. peastman

    peastman Well-Known Member

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    Just found this. Thought I would share. Canberra seems to have disappeared though.


    [​IMG]
     
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  2. Tekoz

    Tekoz Well-Known Member

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    I've found this one:
    [​IMG]

    so, can we actually make decision to invest based on that graph ? or is it just a hype to cause more confusion for the masses.

    But if we just buy for PPoR I guess it doesn't really matter to buy now in Sydney.
     
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  3. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    So, should one buy at the bottom of the market stage or at the recovery or rising stage? Subject to strategy?
     
  4. Arashi87

    Arashi87 Well-Known Member

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    Good starting point, however, market within market!
     
  5. Cadbury99

    Cadbury99 Well-Known Member

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    Depends on how good your crystal ball is - just because somewhere appears to be at the bottom does not indicate how long it may languish there.
    If you wait until an area starts to grow you may miss some of the growth but at least its moving in the right direction.
    In terms of peak of the market, it's only really in hindsight one can be certain that the peak was reached. Although Sydney in general is expensive there are several different opinions about if this is really the top yet.
     
  6. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    It depends on your strategy. I bought in Melbourne at a mini-peak for $385k. Property is now worth around $650k based on recent comparable sales in the area. Do I care one bit that I bought at a "peak"?
     
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  7. htopg

    htopg Well-Known Member

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    Bottom of Market - meh..
    Start of Recovery - start researching
    Rising Market - buy, buy, buy, keep buying until you run out of funds
     
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  8. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    That's about right, at least try to do this.

    But don't ever get stuck buying when the market has peaked, otherwise you could be holding property that goes backwards and paying interest, costing money

    Mtr:)
     
  9. Arashi87

    Arashi87 Well-Known Member

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    How about start buying at recovery :D
     
  10. TyroneS

    TyroneS Well-Known Member

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    Anyone know roughly how long we have for a "Rising Market"? I assume property prices move in terms of months or years?
     
  11. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    Thanks. I have been looking at some of the areas in the recovery and rising market. I guess I just need to spend a bit more time on the ground and go for it.
     
  12. mrdobalina

    mrdobalina Well-Known Member

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    Wouldn't the best time to buy is at the bottom of the market? As Warren Buffet once said: "...be greedy when others are fearful".
     
  13. larrylarry

    larrylarry Well-Known Member

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    I suppose one doesn't know how long the bottom will go for so a recovery or rising market has a better chance in terms of timing for gain? It makes sense.
     
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  14. Grandview

    Grandview Member

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    How long would you be waiting for the upswing in the market though? Sure you would be able to pick up properties at a discount but wouldn't it be better to jump onto an already moving market and hold on for the ride??
     
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  15. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Tyrone
    If you look at previous boom/bust cycles perhaps average 18 months 2 years, however in recent times we have seen Perth go for 5 years, Syd well that started to rise in 2012, 3 years and still going, Melb 2013 and going strong. Seems we need to throw the norm out the door, I give up...

    I guess we should be aiming to get in as early as possible, when demand is stronger than supply jump in, the earlier the better.

    Mtr:)
     
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  16. htopg

    htopg Well-Known Member

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    The question is: "how long the market will stay at the bottom?"

    Let's say there were two fictitious investors, one was called Gillard the other was called Abbott.
    Gillard bought a property for 200k in 2003 (bottom of market).
    After 6 years, the market became hot (rising market).
    Abbott bought a similar property for 300k.
    One year later, both Gillard and Abbott had their properties valued both at 400k.
    For Gillard, she bought at the bottom and got 200k increase.
    For Abbott, he bought at rising market and got 100k increase.
    Is Gillard better off?
    No, Gillard got 200k increase in 7 years whereas Abbott got 100k increase in a year.
     
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  17. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Depends on how many you want in order to back an area of your choosing. If you want a lot because you're very sure about it, start stockpiling at recovery stage.
     
  18. Be Developer

    Be Developer Property Developer Business Member

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    Trust you due diligence!
    Check your wallets!
    N take action!!
     
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  19. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    You need to deduct all costs from end values to determine which is the winner, and even then there are other factors that need to be considered.

    Interest payable/holding costs, rates, taxes, property management fees, insurance, maintenance during the 6 year period deduct from the end value to determine actual/REAL profit made during this period, ignore this and its just "Smoke and Mirrors" .

    Also need to review what happened during this 6 years period? Were there any other markets rising?? If so then the person holding for 6 years has effectively locked in their money missing valuable opportunities/profits in other rising markets.

    I know timing the market is much more important than time in the market

    MTR:)
     
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