Jobs

Treasurer says real unemployment at 13.3%

The big deviation from the usual marketing is that the Treasurer, Josh Frydenberg, says the true unemployment rate is much higher than the official 7.1 per cent. He said that effective unemployment is 13.3% instead of the official 7.1%.

It will be interesting to see the official ABS figures released tomorrow.

 

I am not surprised, if NSW goes into full lockdown it wont take much to hit 13%

Looks likes the cure is worse than the problem........

 

without getting it under controlled, economy will not do well regardless even if we disregard the health and safety of its citizens, Sweden and the US are a good examples of what not to do. Countries that does the elimination strategy will fare much better economically in the long run even if they make greater sacrifice in the short term.

 

The topic has been done to death, and quite frankly unless you have a crystal ball we absolutely have no idea how this will play out in Australia.

The real question is has lockdown worked???? and How more lockdowns are required to eliminate covid? We dont know?


I guess this will get deleted again

 

Lygon Street, my favourite when visiting Melb for best Italian food has a vacancy rate of over 13%

wow.....

 

Not wholly attributed to the virus though, it had a vacancy rate of 13.5% in July last year, up from 2018, whereas as some strips that diversified their offerings saw a decrease in vacancies over the same period, see the article below from August 2019 which is where the 13.5% vacancy rate came from.

Retail woes blow through iconic Melbourne strips.

Bricks & Morter stores have been on the decline for years. quote from below article re. Lygon Street "Carlton's Lygon Street was already battling before COVID-19, with vacancy rates doubling to 13.5 per cent last year. There is little evidence of a stunning turnaround since then." ("last year" being July 2018 to July 2019, I couldn't find current vacancy rates for Lygon St though expect it'll be out soon judging bu the previous dates of the Fitzroy agency review).

https://www.theage.com.au/national/...its-battling-city-strips-20200521-p54vac.html

Business that have continued to adapt will do well, saw this play out over the years with the bicycle game when Chain Reaction and Wiggle became massive. Some small shops took the stance of fighting them and moaning about how unfair it as as they could no longer compete on price, others stepped their service game up and offered things the online stores couldn't, as an example the ones that moaned about how unfair it was took a stance of refusing to service or install parts bought online for you whereas as other openly advertised that they couldn't price match on parts but would be be happy to fit and and service them. Guess which ones are still in business sand thriving?

 

right

just not sure how this second wave is going to work for small struggling business‘ regardless.

 

Lygon St has some really good value for money restaurants like $25 for a very nice main course. But millennials and even the oldies these days prefer to go to fancy $45 main course places with half the ingredients.

 

Official ABS unemployment figures came back at 7.4% for unemployment. South Australia 8.8% and Western Australia 8.7% had the worst unemployment in the nation. Millions of people are still reliant on Jobkeeper though and the majority of the jobs created in June were all part time. One of my friends works in transport and just had his hours reduced by 50% this week so I'll be advising him to apply for Jobkeeper when we catch up for a BBQ tomorrow even if it is scheduled to end n September (at this stage).

As for the politics of whether the economy should have been sacrificed for health it's difficult to say. Apart from Victoria I think Australia has done an awesome job and the short term economic pain has resulted in thousands of elderly Australians remaining alive this year.

 

I posted a link on real unemployment figures In one of my previous posts

Short term economic pain ???? It is too early to say how serious it will impact and the damage for each State. However we have seen many industries cut at the knees and small business’ that will not reopen ?????

Will there be another lockdown??? How many lockdowns is required to eliminate this? 2, 5, ???

History will be the judge.

My view has not changed, global over reaction based on panic/fear, media selective on what stats are produced for greatest impact. Mixed with a good dose of political scoring. Dont you love those ambitious premiers, votes come first, make no mistake about this

Not to mention Chinese/australian relationship in tatters, and they are our number 1 exporter, that wont hurt, not much

anyway nuff of my rant........ of course we wont agree..... and why I say time will tell

 

Banks win either way
This deferral thing is like gold for the banks - they defer your loan while it loses value and charge you for it

 

Not much of a relationship when one side engages in significant cyber attacks against the other and publicly threatens to damage the economy. Australia has to navigate a better way.

 

Also you can revert back to interest only loans for 12 months, however I think full financials required for this

 

yes agree, but still a shambles and make no mistake it will hurt.......we export $480 billion pa to China


We are not the only country caught up with thus

 

There is nothing to debate on as clearly it has helped many countries across Europe, Asia, and NZ. We were close to eliminate community transmission if wasnt for the breach. US failed for a very obvious reason. China's economy is roaring back and there's recovery in Europe too where it was well under control using the lock down strategy

 

https://www.rba.gov.au/publications/bulletin/2020/jun/economic-effects-of-the-spanish-flu.html

“The Spanish flu period highlights how disruptive a pandemic can be to economic activity. In saying that, and being mindful of how different the Australian economy is now, the Spanish flu period and the strong economic growth that followed shows that rapid recoveries from pandemics are possible if the public health aspects are not too prolonged. A surprising feature of the Spanish flu episode was how quickly the labour market appears to have recovered.“

 

Chalk and cheese, different age groups hit

I hope you are right
But I think its a bit of a stretch to say we will bounce back when we are seeing 5000 job losses Per week. China cutting us off our largest exporter. We dont manufacture

 

Yes that article is mindful of that
I don’t have a position one way or another currently as the data is lacking/ missing or corrupt
I have confidence in human endeavour, if jobs are lost or industries in fact it just means human endeavour will move on.
If this were not the case then we would have entered the death spiral post 1918 flu because as you pointed out that one seemed to attack those with the most human capital to lose 20-40 year olds
Another paper, no agenda by posting it. Spending down what did store owners do; moved their endeavour to mail order.
https://www.stlouisfed.org/~/media/...ment/research-reports/pandemic_flu_report.pdf

 

And we survived many virus’ without the need to go into full lockdown including healthy people. Never seen anything like this before. Then come to think of it we never had the social networks and media platforms we have today. Partly why we are seeing so much misinformation. Medical experts been saying the same


Apparently lockdown costing Melb 2 billion per week

Looks like SA could go back into lockdown?? Not sure why? I thought they had zero cases. The world has gone nuts if this happens 0 cases.