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Job figures

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by Bayview, 14th Jan, 2016.

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  1. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Just heard Shane Oliver - AMP Economist - talking on the ABC radio about the unemployment figures...

    Basically saying that the Unemployment figures released yesterday/today are false and/or inaccurate.

    He reckons they are a lot closer to 6.3% than the 5.8% stated by the ABS.

    Opinions?
     
  2. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    So 93.7% of people have a job as opposed to 94.2% according to Shane ?

    If you want a job you'll find a job in other words. Carry on.
     
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  3. twobobsworth

    twobobsworth Well-Known Member

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    My local barber can't get anyone. My local mechanic can't get anyone.
     
  4. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    There's plenty of jobs around but most people either don't want one or have unrealistic expectations.
     
  5. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member

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    No, 93.7% who want a job have a job. Big difference
     
  6. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    I put it to you that last 5 or 6% are pretty useless and don't have a job for a reason.

    At these levels we're pretty much at full employment. It's about as good as it gets.
     
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  7. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    How do you come to that conclusion from a sub 6% unemployment rate?
     
  8. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    maybe right...maybe wrong.
    I don't think it makes a big difference. I would be looking at trends, forward looking statements/where they are heading, and whats happening on the ground rather than whats purely reported, however not discounting numbers and whats reported.
     
  9. wogitalia

    wogitalia Well-Known Member

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    You might want to look up what a participation rate is and further to that what the unemployment figure even represents because you're so incredibly far off with your numbers that it's flat out scary.


    Depends on your industry massively whether this is true or false. Engineering for example is a blood bath right now.
     
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  10. D.T.

    D.T. Adelaide Property Manager Business Member

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    Anecdotally, as twobobsworth said above, most employers I know are seeking workers. Similarly most workers I know are seeking work and complaining about the results.
     
  11. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    Depends where you're located too, plenty of Engineers in Sydney.
     
  12. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    I don't really bother with figures, just go off what I hear from other business people I know around the traps. It's not like everyone is making millions but it's hardly time to start belly aching over the lack of jobs. There is always an industry or two doing it tough at some point in the cycle boo hoo.
     
  13. sanj

    sanj Well-Known Member

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    You're misunderstanding my point. The unemployment rate doesn't tell the full picture, that's what I'm trying to say.
     
  14. Biz

    Biz Well-Known Member

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    I know they re jigged it some years back so it shows people casually employed etc.
     
  15. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    My point is that there is fudging going on - but why?

    The average Joe is being told in the media that the job climate is on the improve; when in fact it isn't really.

    This can have a big effect on folks who are going out expecting to find work, and find it is not that easy....might cause folks to simply give up out of disappointment and despair - the job figures don't include those who are not even looking for work.

    One of our customers yesterday told me of a Boral factory which closed down last year - he had to go in to do the clean-up at the site.

    Several hundred jobs gone; I heard nothing of this in the news.
     
  16. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    There is a decent shortage of apprentices now in auto.

    There are even some pretty attractive incentives for Employers such as myself to take on apprentices and mature aged apprentices, and job-start schemes etc.

    But, kids are looking at the wages they will get paid as opposed to other industries, and opting to take other careers.

    The fully qualified blokes - very few are any good - good mechanics many of them; but not good employees; lots of folks with issues, attitudes and baggage in the industry.
     
    Last edited: 14th Jan, 2016
  17. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    to a large extent, you can take this view all the way to the bank

    near 5 % unemployment is the new normal 0 i reckon for a bunch of reasons

    ta

    rolf
     
  18. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    to a large extent, you can take this view all the way to the bank

    near 5 % unemployment is the new normal 0 i reckon for a bunch of reasons

    ta

    rolf
     
  19. WattleIdo

    WattleIdo renovating Premium Member

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    No need to get worried under 10%. 5% is optimal, allowing workers the ability to change jobs, take time off, retire.
     
  20. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    If you want to know what the next 5 plus is going to look like employment wise ie where are opps etc refer to obamas most recent speech.
     
  21. 2FAST4U

    2FAST4U Well-Known Member

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    It wouldn't surprise me.In SA we've had 7+% unemployment each month since February 2015. Labour underutilisation (unemployment + underemployment) in SA has consistently been around 17%.

    I'm looking at a spreadsheet of ABS data atm and the trend for full-time male employment is 338.1 in December 2015. Using the trend data the last time less than 338k males were employed full-time in SA was back in December 2004. Considering that the population has increased in SA by over 150,000 people in 11 years it's pretty bleak. The male participation rate has been fluctuating around 67% for the past 12 months as well. Back in the 2005 time period the male participation rate was fluctuating around 69%, and was up to as high as 70% back in 2010. Therefore, if less males hadn't left the labour force we would easily be up in double digit unemployment- for males at least.

    Personally I've found it tough ever since graduating back in 2012. There's no doubt that there are jobs around; however, you need to have the skills and the EXPERIENCE to get them. In this climate there are plenty of people with skills and experience so people like myself have to take whatever we can get, and just be thankful that we've got jobs. If I was 10 years older and had experience etc. my viewpoint would be completely different as I would probably have an actual career...
     
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