I've grown up my whole life hearing that property only goes up!

And I've thought it's been ludicrous the entire time! What a ridiculous sentiment! Anyway, here I am on this forum after lurking for nearly a year. Now that the tide is turning perhaps now I can finally start a family and buy a shelter that won't in-debt me for my whole life.

Here are some screenshots of CoreLogic housing results that prompted me to join this forum and begin the discussion of what's currently happening in the market! I look forward to chatting with you all.

 

Can you elaborate why those screenshots prompted you to join?

 

Certainly. I have factual evidence from corelogic (despite their insincere "Clearance Rate" calculations) that the number of houses going up for auction is increasing, while sales are declining dramatically. This is clear sign people are rushing for the exits and a clear indicator of a bubble pop.

This is going to be BIG! I joined after gathering these screenshots because I would enjoy the conversations online as the drama unfolds over the following years and years.

 

You're a few years late ... The discussion on what's currently happening has been going on for years on the forum

 

I beg to differ! I've seen many posts that read as though this current bubble pop isn't happening, that it's overstated, exaggerated and will be corrected by end of next year.

 

Welcome.

How long have you been waiting ? What is the trigger statistic that will convince you to buy ?

Now is a reasonably good time to be looking for something - but it sounds like you are waiting for a better time.

 

So would you say it was a popping bubble from 2009 - 2011 also (if auction clearance rates are the obvious sign)?

 

When a house is only 3-4 times my annual income. I'm about to start a new role that pays more than I ever thought possible to earn, so that's helpful. And I've got years and years before I have to buy, so I'm in no rush.

 

Yes perhaps I would have, with a drop from 70% in 2009 to 50% in 2011. That took 3 years to fall that much, but I was 21 and didn't give a **** about property.
Now, however, we've seen a fall from 70% to 40% in less than a year! So I'm definitely saying it's a popping bubble

 

You're quoting clearance rates as if they're a loss in value.

Leading to 2010 there was a boom after the GFC and then a 'correction' where house prices dropped 10%-15%. Then there was about 18 months of stagnation. Then there was another boom until 2017-2018. Now there's a correction happening which will likely be followed by a period of stagnation before the next boom.

In your own lifetime I can count about 5 cycles of price increases to corrections to price increases within some markets.

 

I think I just got banned from this thread:
Steven Keen is back - so everything is going to be okay

I understand I'm going against the grain with my postings, but has anything I've said been ban-worthy?

 

That sound a pretty reasonable approach - I'm sure you'll have no trouble finding something when you are ready.

For investments we would not have paid anymore that 4 times gross income - but then have spent a fair bit on renovation / granny flats etc. A lot of the investors here seem to be well in the lower half of property values for their purchase

For our PPOR we went a fair bit more than 4 times gross salary - but that worked out well.

 

It's a screenshot from a LinkedIn conversation, the image is massive. I'd resize it but I'm banned.

 

The markets are tanking not because the economy is stuffed....... its purely due to the credit squeeze.... read post by @euro73

Of course property does not always go up, it goes sideways and down, what we are seeing in many markets today

Would I buy property as an investment today in Oz..... no, not as a buy and hold strategy......because the timing is wrong
Yield are too low 3-4%,interest rates are rising
Your investment would be lucky today to keep up with inflation

When will I buy? When I start to see a market is rising and stock is tightening.
When the numbers stack up including developing
This will probably only happen when credit eases

If people/investors cant source finance they cant buy..... more supply comes to market, oversupply... prices fall. What we are seeing today

My point..... timing is everything, and you dont need to be a genius, you dont buy until you have evidence the market is rising

Next question......

what market in Oz is rising today?

How many investors on PC have already hit the servicability wall?

Now the BIG one .... how many investors will
Now be facing interest only loans revert to Interest and principal..... that is approx 40% increase on repayments

Get the picture.... many investors will be struggling to keep their head above water let alone buying more property

Will investors be treading water....... yes, if they did not mitigate risk

Nail in the coffin........ if Labour gets in investors will feel more pain

 

How old are you? 10 yrs old?

 

As a property market bear for the last two years, my only comment here is that the only thing more sure than a decline in prices (not sure how big it will be) is that the OP is literally just a flog.

Bet they never find the guts to become an investor.

 

Waiting for house prices to fall to 3-4 x income indicates they could be in for a very long wait!

 

Especially as they appear to be from Sydney. If he's on $100k, you can't even buy a house for $400k in Mt Druitt these days.

 

SAH

Welcome to PC and please share your insight on property. You can always write about your interaction with housing around your locations and over time. It is always interesting to see how you view housing in Australia and globally, if you have been travelling.

All the best.

F