Its now officially a recession

Countries that looked after health and economy

Nigeria? a third world country..... testing is scant how can it be accurate....

there are others on the list, I would be questioning

‘It’s a tricky thing.’ COVID-19 cases haven’t soared in Nigeria, but that could change | Science | AAAS

 

As I mentioned previously I am Only referring to the link you posted

 

Dont think we have to worry about the recession that we have to have



We work less, we earn less but we save more meaning we do control our budgets well

From the news household savings gone up from 6% to 19.8%

Household spending down (we are living within our means)

Alcohol drinks up 13% ( we are enjoying ourselves)

How good is that?

 

Where is the graph for my wife’s amazon deliveries? That would be about about 800% easily.

 

Where is the graph for my BWS deliveries?

That would be about about 800,000%

 

Don't they get stopped at the border?

 

Scottyfrommarketing and sidekickjoshy wouldn't have any of that on the next guys radar, let alone their own radar.... we have had years of RBA governors pleading for that kind of thing to absolutely zero avail.

Homebuilder has been a hopeless joke so far...I'm amazed it isnt getting more media attention. Might have a sudden rush in demand, but so far its been a flop.

Water first
Bradfield Plan or the modern improved version of it. Take the opportunity to drought proof the continent forever and create the base for bringing large scale food production and manufacturing back onshore

High Speed Rail to link the eastern seaboard.
Start with Sydney - Goulburn - Wagga - Albury - Shepparton - Melbourne.
Later you can add Sydney - Bathurst - Orange - Dubbo . Tunnel under /through the Blue Mountains

Combined with massive renewable energy providing cheap power, these nation building initiatives would be game changing for the next century and beyond;
It would allow for multiple 250,000 + smaller cities to be suppported.
It would allow Australia to become the worlds food bowl
It would allow for value add to occur onshore rather than offshore
It would take infrsatructue pressure off Sydney and Melbourne
It would allow for aggressive migration intake to grow the population and tax base
I'm sure there are all kinds of other flow on benefits .... but those noted above are more than enough to prompt the question.... what's doing Scotty and Josh?

I guess the reality is that because it ticks so many boxes simultaneously but would require actual vision and 20 years patience to deliver .... #probablyneverhappen

 

I did have a laugh when JF was going through the slides and had a smirk on the increase in spending on alcohol

 

Must be a slow news day. ABC’s The Business doing a long interview with the doom and gloomer Martin North.

When asked about the Reserves Bank’s property research he sat there, smirked, and said “I wouldn’t put much faith in it, if you look at it, there wasn’t much depth to it (the research)”.

That’s a ballsy call to basically say the top econocrats in the country are wrong but he’s right.

His research says a quarter of investment property owners are in trouble.

I’m inclined to simply look at reality... if the market was going to crash it would have crashed by now. It’s just not going to. First home buyers are cashed up, interest rates are bugger all, and everyone’s about to get a massive tax cut in the upcoming budget.

 

So is the current stimulus required or not?

• Freeze on evictions.
• Cash handouts to people.
• Cash handouts to businesses.
• Mortgage holidays.
• Temporarily allowed to trade insolvent.
• Temporarily watered down/no director responsibilities.

There are definite underlying issues out there that I don't think you can even begin to explore until the stimulus starts getting wound back. And we don't know which direction the virus, vaccine, treatment will take.

I would say we are in a holding pattern with a lot currently being propped up by stimulus.

Definite signs everywhere of drunk/easy stimulus money out there at the moment.

 

There are some competing forces in this situation.

- People are staying inside and saving their money.
- People have lost work.

In combination, it may come out as a stalemate depending on who the people are that lost work. How much were they making? What proportion have mortgages to pay off.

 

Over the cliff

 

All I see is buying opportunity with this recession.
Am I wrong?

 

Allowing companies that are insolvent to continue trading has a multiplier effect among other businesses and ultimately increases the number of insolvent businesses. Insolvent companies don't pay their debts to other companies and thus damage the other companies financial viability.
It was, is and always will be very bad policy to prop up non-viable "Zombie" businesses.

Have a look at this graph:

 

Nice graph. It gives a good indication of how much bad debt is going to hit the economy once things start to ease off. The banks have their reserves but it is the small business suppliers and employees who will feel the greatest pain; many of those just getting by will also crash - domino effect.

 

It does not appear that we will climb the cliff as quickly as we fell..... could we actually be at the start of a depression? Quite possibly.....

 

Billionaire is made in Depression.

 

Technical recession doesn't bother me, we knew this back in March.

The key points are how Victoria pulls through and re-opens it's economy and that the rest of the country continue to contain outbreaks.

September quarter results will be interesting, still pretty bad due to Victoria and border closures, I am guessing. But it will likely be a positive QonQ result.

December quarter will be the clincher, hopefully coinciding with some positive vaccine news.
We need to be promoting domestic tourism, ideally with 10minute Covid testing at all airports and inter-regional trains. That industry is in trouble for a long time yet.