It's 'doom and gloom' time (again…….)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by KayTea, 12th Oct, 2015.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Looks like this is the thread for 'seasoned' investors to provide useful advice.

    Maybe some Sydney investors would like to give us a run down of the market between the last boom in Sydney and this boom. Did the market actually fall or was it just flat growth and how long for. @THX you are a Sydney investor?
     
    Perthguy, 16th Oct, 2015
    #101
  2. Waterboy

    Waterboy Well-Known Member

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    When NSW Labor was in state government it was as flat as the Nullarbor.
     
    Waterboy, 16th Oct, 2015
    #102
  3. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    The housing market has been rising steadily, staying flat for years, rising sharply, flat, falling, rising for a lot longer than 20 years. Why choose 20 years?
     
    wylie, 16th Oct, 2015
    #103
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  4. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    Look at the Australian property price graph.

    Same weather vs climate argument.
     
    MGF, 16th Oct, 2015
    #104
  5. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    What post is that in? I'm not going to look back through six pages.

    I'm happy to take a look, however, I know for my own family the history of what was bought before 1960 to now. First house pre1960 cost two thousand pounds in Balmoral Brisbane.
     
    wylie, 16th Oct, 2015
    #105
  6. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    You're behaving like a pedant.
    What's wrong with 20 years?
     
    Rumplestiltskin, 16th Oct, 2015
    #106
  7. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Because MGF wants to create an inference that the whole world is about to end (or should end) based on that 20 year window?...

    Wylie was simply responding to his/her post about the relevance of that 20 years in the overall scheme.

    It's like folks pulling up a window of time for shares...if you pick the right window, you can make it suit any argument.
     
    Bayview, 16th Oct, 2015
    #107
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  8. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    Where does he say the world is going to end( or should end )?

    It seems like you're making an inference?
     
    Rumplestiltskin, 16th Oct, 2015
    #108
  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    You are complaining about things getting personal and you've just called me a pedant? Who's getting personal now?

    Anyway, you quoted 20 years like something happened in Australia 20 years ago to start house prices rising. I merely point out that prices have been rising from day dot. Why did you pick 20 years?

    I do recall when my parents sold the house they bought for two thousand pounds, they were in a slightly better financial position and could have held it if they rented it out. The general advice was that "houses won't go up in price" and "sell it and pay off the loan".

    They certainly didn't rise much (or at all?) in the time they lived there, but that is "normal" and part of the cycle. However, they were in their 20s and had nobody to tell them to hold it, and knew nothing about cycles.

    That house last sold for well over a million "as it was". It has since been knocked down and a new build sits there. What a shame, but they put their money to good use. However, just holding that one house would have been a nice bit of icing.
     
    wylie, 16th Oct, 2015
    #109
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  10. THX

    THX Well-Known Member

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    Waterboy said it. Flat for years but pockets of growth in places which isn't saying much because that's how its been for decades, as wylie says: rising steadily, staying flat for years, rising sharply, flat, falling, rising. The key is it's never burst from a so called bubble, it's stayed consistently boring in that the cycles just keep umm..cycling..
     
    THX, 16th Oct, 2015
    #110
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  11. Rumplestiltskin

    Rumplestiltskin Well-Known Member

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    I never complained about things getting personal.

    You need to read the thread properly and remember who you're replying to.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th Oct, 2015
    Rumplestiltskin, 16th Oct, 2015
    #111
  12. THX

    THX Well-Known Member

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    Well what are you trying to achieve? I mean the other thread is basically 40 pages of you bemoaning NG, CGT discount and investors. Now this thread is you bemoaning that few here believe in a bubble. Why are you trying to convince us?
     
    THX, 16th Oct, 2015
    #112
  13. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Sorry. Thought it came from MGF. I'm being polite. You could have been polite too.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 16th Oct, 2015
    wylie, 16th Oct, 2015
    #113
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  14. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    First real housing price graph here http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2013/02/the-history-of-australian-property-values/

    Around when Howard cut CGT the bubble really kicked into gear - about twenty years of rapid inflation.

    It's not at dispute that the housing market has been increasing in value for around two decades is it?
     
    MGF, 16th Oct, 2015
    #114
  15. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    Perthguy, 16th Oct, 2015
    #115
  16. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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    To a certain extent I guess.
    But if you were to believe the hype, they're responsible for pricing all of the FHB's out of the market.
     
    Azazel, 16th Oct, 2015
    #116
  17. RM1827

    RM1827 Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]

    Whether we believe or not there is a bubble we can't deny a credit economy works on cycles.. Short cycles 5-8 years and long cycles that can be 20, 30 years or more... I think we should be aware of that and not simply deny it because it has not been experienced... Reality is that Australia has ever experienced the drop from a long circle and hopefully we won't.

    This video is really good to understand this

     
    RM1827, 16th Oct, 2015
    #117
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  18. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    I can tell you from personal experience that for 3 years around 2002 -05, not much happened to my IP in Highett....

    No rent increase, bugger-all CG.
     
    Bayview, 16th Oct, 2015
    #118
  19. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    I am expecting a drop after this boom and I think a lot of people are. Realistically though, it's not a 20 year super cycle as has been claimed. Since 1995, Sydney has boomed at least twice, Perth twice, Melbourne has maybe had 3 smaller booms. Property simply does not boom, correct, boom, correct in a property bubble. It's only really Sydney and Melbourne booming now anyway. Perth is in decline and has been for at least a year. I have heard Darwin is too. Adelaide is flat, Hobart is flat, Brisbane is increasing. It seems like business as usual to me. Boom, correction. I can't see how that is any different to the last 9 or 10 property cycles.
     
    Perthguy, 16th Oct, 2015
    #119
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  20. RM1827

    RM1827 Well-Known Member

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    As I said... It has never been experienced...A crash from
    a long cycle might be 50% plus correction like the ones in America or Europe...Do I think we are there yet? I don't think so but that is just my opinion.. But I won't deny it is a possibility just because I don't want to think in that scenario.. It won't stop me to invest either it is just one more risk to add to the pile...

    Agree with you that is mainly Sydney/Melbourne however property in Australia in general is more expensive for what you get for your money...
     
    RM1827, 16th Oct, 2015
    #120
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