It's 'doom and gloom' time (again…….)

Since we started seriously investing in 2001 plenty of people have been saying Australia would crash

How did that turn out ......?

Cliff

 

Well in Ireland if you bought in 2000 you rode a massive 270% or so increase and then crash, went underwater and only now in 2015 have regained the value in real dollars.

Anyone who bought after 2000 is still underwater. People who bought in 2007 are the worst off, suffering the highest loss.

So the Irish went from bottom to peak in seven years and then it took eight years to return to that bottom after falling terribly.

Australia has been riding a twenty year rise. Using the Irish model it might take ten years to lose all the gains and go under and then another five - ten years to return to what prices where in real dollars twenty years ago.

If you put the start point at 2001 or so then anyone who bought after that date who holds through the peak and crash will see their property decline below their purchase price in real dollars. Anyone who bought at the peak will lose serious money.

Here is Ireland's prices: http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-tVvFbIvNpEM/VCQAKmUdJlI/AAAAAAAAVrY/KpzLt6Z5Hck/s1600/2.png

 

Just out of curiosity, what does Irish export ? From the graph the down time is about 5 to 7 years.

 

And for the umpteenth time, Ireland is not Australia (or Sydney since it's mostly Sydney applies to your bubble theory)

 

It's an easy thing to say but that's not really how the world works.

The position you hold is "we can't learn anything at all from any other country in regard to property markets because that country is not Australia".

It simply doesn't hold up at all. Tulip mania was an example of an economic bubble and there are lessons to be learned there. The Japanese property bubble has lessons for Australia.

It sort of gets to a level of absurdity. In Canada they build condos. Here we build OTP apartments. Not much difference at all in how the systems in both countries work. And yet we can't learn a single thing from Canada or Ireland or the US or Japan because you say they're not Australia?

Good thing medicine doesn't work this way. A twenty-year old white male in Ireland taking aspirin for a headache wouldn't have anything useful to say to a twenty-year old white male in Australia with a headache!

 

I rent out rooms in my house to mates, and I also live there aswell to do renovations. I have looked at market rents in the area and I would be worse off and actually get less rent then by room to rent my house out legit and fine another place to rent. Plus I get to live in my own house and can do whatever I want. So you have to find what works.

 

Got a mate who is earning ridicolous money and is now in his late 30s.

He is so stuck in mindset its gunna crash and his gunna buy a house in cash for the last 10 years if just bought a house he would of been fine.

 

So in a couple of more years if all gos to plan ill be getting paid to live in my own house.

 

It's easy to say that because it is the truth. Are you for real mate? Australia is not Ireland. We have different financial regulations, different banks, different people, different supply and demand, different migration levels, We are not Ireland. Do you ever bother to stop spamming your ideological slogans and actually try to understand the opposing argument?

And WTF? medicine? An analogy has a correlation, you can't just pick a random subject and say a=b.

 

Yawn .......

Last time I looked out the window I live in Australia .... Not Ireland

Cliff

 

See, this is exactly what I'm talking about.

Yawn....

If you're so bored by any discussion in this area why do you bother coming in to comment? Are you making a contribution or just trying to stop people talking?

 

Gee, if we can't learn from the Irish, there's something very wrong with our mindset.

 

This is ultimately what will get me to buy, despite my general position on the future of Australian property.

I love gardening and have built gardens in many previous rental properties. I want a passionfruit vine dammit! But I can't bring myself to build another vegetable garden in a place I'll be leaving.

 

Because ....

Drum roll .........Opening post ......

My understanding is that you don't own property . The OP asked for the opinion of seasoned investors . You aren't . If you are questioning my right to comment on this post , my question to you is WTF are you doing here .....

Cliff

 

Irish economy and housing is actually doing quite well now..

http://www.irishtimes.com/business/...s-to-rise-the-most-in-euro-zone-s-p-1.2302113

 

So buy a house. Your reasons for not buying one simply do not make sense unless there are financial or personal reasons that prevent you from buying one.

If you believe prices will fall dramatically then why do you want to buy a diminishing asset
If you believe prices won't fall then why not buy and enjoy the CG
You want your home to do your own thing so buy
If you don't care about looking after a home owned by someone else, continue renting.
If you can't find a house you want because the stock is bad, move.

What's the real reason?

 

I work with a lot of irish older guys. They are hard working and doom n gloom/ fearful of australias future

 

It's not a discussion. It is you lecturing us yet again about how the Australian property market will crash just like Ireland's. We don't agree. Get over it and move on.

 

Well put .

Cliff

 

Well even if Australia isn't Ireland.
The Australian housing boom has been on an unprecented scale so I will take the short odds, the bust will be as well.
Whose to say it won't be worse than Ireland.

Remember Ireland isn't Australia.