It's 'doom and gloom' time (again…….)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by KayTea, 12th Oct, 2015.

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  1. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    In the end, buying a PPoR becomes more a lifestyle decision and less about finance (although I don't agree that people should get in ridiculous amounts of debt). I share a house and the owner would be financially better off if he rented out his house and lived somewhere cheaper. The decision to stay in his own home is not financial, it's a lifestyle choice. He doesn't want the inspections or lack of freedom to improve the property either.
     
  2. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    A few reasons - the main one being that I don't think we'll be having a small correction. I think we're going for the big burst. Not willing to lose my capital.

    The other one is that prices are dropping faster than our rent cost. A house that drops $10K over a year is ultimately $20K off the overall life-time mortgage cost. And some of the places are dropping more than $10K!

    Probably the final reason is that my business is earning more each year. They way things are going I'll be able to pay cash in around three years from now. The more the AUD falls the more money I make.

    That's all the financial reasons though.

    In the end for us I think it's going to be an emotional decision. I imagine I'll probably snap one day after an inspection or when I think once more about why I can't plant the garden the way I want and that'll be it - regardless of what the market is doing or may do in the future.
     
  3. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    MGF

    Love to know where is this place where prices keep on going down . I do like to buy at the bottom of the market .

    Where we're buying , now even the flood affected properties with overhead transmission lines at the back door are selling fairly quickly .

    Some one just paid the same price for a flood affected property that we paid for a nicely renovated non flood affected property three months , so some places are moving .

    Cliff
     
  4. THX

    THX Well-Known Member

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    Middle of nowhere Qld.
     
  5. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Folks have had that mindset for decades and decades and decades...prices still keep on going up, then they stop for a while, then they go up again.

    If you really believe that, then keep on renting and stop complaining about not being able to paint the walls.

    Incidentally; if you approach your LL and say you'd be willing to repaint the inside of the property for him/her at your cost; I'm pretty sure he/she will say; "Thankyou very much, and here is a bottle of wine for being a good bloke".

    Get a nice colour scheme sorted out and put forward a proposal to him/her.

    Not bragging, but I've been in my rental now for about 3 weeks and have already done about $200 or more worth of maintenance inside the joint for him....it's a win/win.
     
    Last edited: 15th Oct, 2015
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  6. See Change

    See Change Well-Known Member

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    Even past Toowoomba ?? !! ( OK , that's not fair on Toowoomba .. )

    Maybe MGF stands for My God Forsaken country .......

    Cliff
     
  7. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Aren't you happy about that? I'd be interested in the link to the $399k listing.

    Rents certainly are down in certain areas, perhaps moreso than others. In one suburb we dropped the rent to get a tenant, and this is a blue chip area where there are hundreds of units and apartments going in. Our tenants left because they bought a house. That is the way things are now with such low rates. I've lived through that before. Ours is a house, but with low interest rates, heaps of choice for a rental, rents are bad. That has happened before though. Things will change as the one thing that stays the same is that things change.

    Friends local to where we live (still blue chip) had no trouble increasing the rent on their reasonably high end house. This is five kilometres from the blue chip where there are lots of apartments. Markets within markets.
     
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  8. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Why not tell your friends to rent their place and rent somewhere else themselves? They won't make a loss that way.
     
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  9. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    The first part of this post makes no sense when you then say you will buy. If you really do believe there is a bust coming, then just keep paying rent.
     
  10. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    Rental market down too - rent won't cover mortgage. Has been a fair few lease breaks up here too.
     
  11. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    It's possible to be fully aware of economic reality and be pushed by emotional factors.

    I know houses are dropping in price here. If I buy now I might lose $50K at least.

    So the question becomes: how much is it worth to me to never have to speak to a real estate agent again? I'd put that at about $20K. Would happily pay it to never have a problem with my property and have to wait weeks for it to be repaired.

    How much is it worth to me to plant a vegetable garden with my daughter? Yeah, probably another $10K.

    How much is it worth to my family to own a dog? A lot.

    Right now I think we're very much going to follow Ireland. That was a 50%+ drop over four years. What we don't know is how far away that is. Are we in the equivalent of 2007 when the first slowdown hit that then snowballed? Or are we in 2003 and have four more years of growth before the wheels really come off?

    Anyone in Ireland who bought after 2000 has only just now hit the price they paid back then. Fifteen years it took for the climb, drop, under and slow recovery. Not particularly interested in that happening to me but again, emotional things can take precedence.
     
  12. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    Nah, not really.

    It should be pretty evident from my posts that I care a lot about what happens to other people and our country.

    Because I make all my money in USD and my business is growing, I would very much benefit from buying an IP and using negative gearing. But I don't want to do that because I don't want to participate in that system.

    I have a lot of sympathy for those who bought because society told them it was a great idea and now they're discovering it wasn't. We have apartments up here that are nearing 2+ years on the market unsold. Behind that is an investor somewhere. It's horrible.
     
  13. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    Mackay?
     
  14. wylie

    wylie Moderator Staff Member

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    Then you need to rent from a nice landlord like me. We allow pets, we allow gardens, we don't do the "white glove" inspections. We fix things next day (sometimes same day).

    Maybe just find a better landlord?

    PS. If you really do think we will have a 50% drop I cannot believe you would even consider buying now, emotional or not.
     
  15. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    Well we are waiting so maybe I am holding back from spending that money.

    Even if I didn't think the drop would be that big, the fact is up here the prices are steadily declining month by month and that's reason enough to wait.

    I'm very much of two minds about it. Some days I'm very happy to be renting and it's all good. Other days, like two weeks ago when a tap washer went and we were losing 500 litres a day in water and the agent dragged their feet for four days... well, that wasn't so enjoyable.
     
  16. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

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    For my neighbours, it was getting a breach notice for having toothpaste on the bathroom mirror. They knew me and my investment partner are property investors, so they came over and asked us to find them a house. A couple of week later they were outta there. No more breach notices to toothpaste. That's just ridiculous!
     
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  17. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    The problem is; folks have been thinking like that forever, and they never buy.

    Meanwhile, the market keeps in ticking up over the years.
     
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  18. THX

    THX Well-Known Member

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    He blames everyone and everything else for his situation so what do you expect.
     
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  19. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    Plenty of people in Ireland before 2007 said exactly the same thing. How did that turn out?
     
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  20. Kangaroo

    Kangaroo Well-Known Member

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    HI, Azazel,
    Isn't it what we want ?
    just getting billions of dollars without even digging the dirt?
    and keep taxing the owner at will ?
    Blackmailing them to look after our interest otherwise will have your asset here ?
    when they visit here, they will spend huge?

    Is this called capital surplus somewhere ?
     

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