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It's 'doom and gloom' time (again…….)

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by KayTea, 12th Oct, 2015.

  1. KayTea

    KayTea Well-Known Member

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  2. DanW

    DanW Well-Known Member

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    7.5% is a PLUNGE now?
    I'll take another 3 years of 20% growth even if I have to suffer another bubble bursting PLUNGE :p
     
  3. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    I'd steer clear of the daily mail to stay truly well versed on the Australian economy.
     
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  4. Rolf Latham

    Rolf Latham Inciteful (sic) Staff Member Business Plus Member

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    no daily mail in OZ anymore


    every 2 to 3 days I hear


    ta
    rolf
     
  5. Bayview

    Bayview Well-Known Member

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    Even if this was accurate; which price range properties will need to drop in value to accommodate a drop in values (no doubt of the Median - they always use this number to gauge everything).

    How many $350k houses sold at firesale prices will it take to counter-balance one (or even 3) $10m house sold for $10.5m and get the price down by 7.5% across the whole Country.
     
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  6. skater

    skater Capitalist Premium Member

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    If you believe what the media spins you will never get ahead.
     
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  7. blw101

    blw101 Member

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    True @skater, taking advantage of the fact that most people seem to believe it certainly helps.
     
  8. Brian84

    Brian84 Well-Known Member

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    I just heard on the news then that if the prices fall to a predicted 7% then we will be in a recession lol. Bring on the bargains.
     
  9. HUGH72

    HUGH72 Well-Known Member

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    7.5% fall from peak to trough? Doesn't sound any different from a normal cycle in that regard.
    I'm not sure what the story is to be honest. If building activity decreases significantly a shallow recession is possible.
    Looks like the usual rubbish blindly comparing one market with the rest of the country.
     
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  10. House

    House Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  11. MGF

    MGF Well-Known Member

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    It's arguable that we're already in a recession - depends on how you measure things. Like employment being redefined to a small number of hours per week.

    I think between China going down, the end of the mining boom, record personal debt and a clear oversupply in various capital cities that there is an inevitable crash coming.

    If you had to engineer a bubble and crash you'd pretty much include everything Australia has been doing. Heavily reliant on commodities, overbuilding, loose credit...
     
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  12. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    Not all markets are equal, there are still the FHB market out there and opportunities to make money.

    However, yes the cracks are forming in some markets, and then we had APRA.

    What I always say is manage your debt/LVR, if you think markets never crash then you are a fool. If you can service debt comfortably then you will survive downturns, if you lost your mind because it was your first property boom, then you are forgiven:)

    But seriously its time to batten the helms and make sure you manage your debt and protect what gains you have made. Enough of a ranting session from me:)

    MTR
     
  13. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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  14. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    We also are having record tourists and students arriving in Australia due to the lower AUD. I wont say its all sunshine but for example I'm surprised at how resilient W.A has been in the face of the mining downturn as indicated by housing prices and unemployment. In W.A prices have dropped and unemployment is higher but not catastrophically.

    I still see China as a 1.3 billion populace lurching in fits and starts to middle income prosperity with India and Indonesia still to have their days in the sun. Even if we did shock horror have a couple of quarters of negative gdp in the low percentiles then I dont see any real issue in the long term aside Australia's seemingly strange obsession with the negative after quarter of a century of economic growth.
     
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  15. Azazel

    Azazel Well-Known Member

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  16. Graeme

    Graeme Well-Known Member

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    The median is the middle value in a series. So if you had a handful of $350K houses then the fact that a $10M place sold for $10.5M would have no effect.

    The reason that the median is often used for averages in statistics is that outliers don't distort the overall figures.

    Oh, and if you want to get the mean, which is what you'd normally understand as the average, down by 7.5% in your example then the fewest you could do it with is four $350,000 properties. They'd have to sell at $45,000 each.

    Also, I wouldn't sweat a 7.5% fall. If prices track incomes then you'd expect that to be reversed by inflation in a few years. Provided you don't have to move, or you've got a little equity in your property or properties, it shouldn't really be a problem.
     
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  17. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    You can argue anything .. we've all seen that ...

    So now you want to redefine the definition of a recession ....

    Let's move the goals posts ... What a load of bs

    YAWN :rolleyes::rolleyes:

    Back to topic .

    Another in a ongoing spin of doom and gloom articles which come out on a regular basis , regardless of the state of the economy .

    Yes . Sydney is getting close to the top .

    Will there be a slight pull back . Yes , probably . 7 % unlikely .

    It's all part of the property cycle . Sydney slows , Melbourne gets to peak and slows and everyone buys in Brisbane and Adelaide which then boom , then followed by who knows where.

    Oh sorry , Adelaide won't boom because it's so dependant on a nearly non existent car industry o_O .. DT / Dave . have you left any for the rest of us !

    Cliff
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2015
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  18. Samten

    Samten Well-Known Member

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    Not to be picky, but you batten down the hatches and you steer at the helm.:) Know what you mean though.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2015
  19. See Change

    See Change Timing Lord Premium Member

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    We're still in buying mode ( though not in Sydney ) . Hadn't made / had any offers accepted for aound two months

    Signed one last week and made two more offers today .

    Maybe we'll get it wrong this time , but there are regular doom and gloom articles and if we'd never bought when one had been recent , we'd probably wouldn't have bought anything . We 're are getting closer to our borrowing limit .

    Cliff
     
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  20. MTR

    MTR Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I guess what I am saying is that some markets are changing, for example Perth is going south, yet I read posts where investors are considering buying, call me crazy, but I find this very odd to say the least.

    MTR:)
     
    Last edited by a moderator: 13th Oct, 2015
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