Is this the start of the crash?

Discussion in 'Sharemarket News & Market Analysis' started by Zenith Chaos, 6th Feb, 2018.

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  1. 158

    158 Well-Known Member

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    MLT visited Advanced Hair Studio this morning.

    "Advanced Hair! Yeah! Yeah!"

    pinkboy
     
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  2. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    Oh man - I just laugh snorted my tea through my nose - at work. :)
    Awesome!!
     
  3. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Personally I think it's misleading to take the market average as an example of average gains.

    http://www.aei.org/publication/fort...because-of-that-dynamic-creative-destruction/

    88% of companies listed in the Fortune500 in 1955 are no longer in existence. There is a long trail of companies that were wiped out almost overnight - taking their shareholders with them.

    OneTel
    Enron
    Kodak
    Texaco
    Ansett
    Dick Smith
    PanAm
    Blockbuster
    Storm Financial
    Lehman Bros
    Compaq
    Concorde

    to name but a handful. Personally, I didn't knowingly have shares in any of these companies, but who knows were my work Super Fund was investing - which is why we took it over as a SMSF (and did very nicely) - but the average Joe doesn't have that ability.

     
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  4. oracle

    oracle Well-Known Member

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    Let's look at another list.

    $10,000 invested in Apple in 1980 would be worth around $4,000,000 in 2017 (without re-investing dividends)

    $40 invested in Coca-Cola in 1919 would be worth around $400,000 in 2012 without re-investing dividends and $9.8 million with re-investing dividends.

    $10,000 invested in Phillip Morris in 1968 would be worth $66 million in 2015 with re-investing dividends.

    $10,000 invested in Berkshire Hathaway in 1964 would be worth $237 million in 2017.

    $10,000 invested in Johnson and Johnson in 1944 would be worth $75 million in 2016 with dividends re-invested.

    $10,000 invested in IBM in 1947 would be worth $640 million in 2016 with dividends re-invested

    $10,000 invested in Walt Disney in 1948 would be worth $960 million in 2016 with dividends re-invested

    $10,000 invested in Westfield in 1960 would be worth $1.74 billion in 2011 with dividends re-invested

    $10,000 invested in Wal Mart in 1970 would be worth $96 million in 2016 (without dividends re-invested)

    $10,000 invested in Wipro in 1980 would be worth $762 million by 2016

    $10,000 invested in Microsoft in 1986 would be worth $7.4 million today

    $10,000 invested in Monster Beverage in 1995 would be worth $4.35 million today

    $10,000 invested in Amazon in 1997 would be worth $4.4 million today

    $10,000 invested in Keurig Green Mountain in 1999 is worth $5 million today

    $10,000 invested in Home Depot in 1981 worth about $60 million in 2017

    $10,000 invested in CSL in 1994 would be worth $2 million in 2016

    The list can go on and on and on. The point is it is in the nature of investing in stocks that some of them will go bust down to zero. The the ones that survive some of them will provide mediocre returns, some above average returns and some are like champion horses providing life changing returns. You just need one or two of these champion horses in your portfolio to more than make up for the losers in your portfolio.

    It comes down to some people's attitude towards stock investing as glass half empty while others see it as glass half full.

    Cheers,
    Oracle.
     
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  5. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    It is misleading but not for the reason you think. It is very simple to buy the index and hold it....you will get market returns less costs. It is pretty well known however (via Dalbar studies) that most investors do worse than the market due to performance chasing and costs.

    You cite a few well known debacles, but the reality is that most of the businesses "no longer in existence" are either acquired or taken private - not bankruptcies.

    The market also exhibits positive skew ; which makes capturing the whole market (if one is following a passive strategy) important imho.
     
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  6. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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  7. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    So after the correction my super portfolio is down 2.12% for the week. This is invested relatively conservatively in Banks, LICs, ETFs, etc.

    My separate speculative portfolio is down only 11.9% for the week. This is reasonably diversified now. The significant investments ( of which I have 3 ) are all long-term positions.

    Generally happy with the outcome and interesting to see how two quite different portfolios from a strategy perspective performed.

    For both portfolios I took opportunities to go shopping for bargains.
     
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  8. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Hope the tea wasn't too hot!
     
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  9. wombat777

    wombat777 Well-Known Member

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    Seems I should have waited to go shopping.
     
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  10. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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  11. Coota9

    Coota9 Well-Known Member

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    My Super portfolio is down around the 4% over the last week since the correction,portfolio is a mix of ETFs and individual stocks.

    Main stock I own that has exposure to US/International markets is Vanguard VGAD which has dropped some 6% over the last week,overall it is up 7.5% since I purchased in July 2017.

    VGAD.JPG
     
  12. Alex Straker

    Alex Straker Financial Life Coach Business Member

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  13. radson

    radson Well-Known Member

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    Yeah the markets are rattled after a long complacency. Im holding out a bit
     
  14. sharon

    sharon Well-Known Member

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    Now where has @Nodrog and @SatayKing gone? All this excitement of a US Correction - perhaps they are off getting their buy orders ready?
     
    Last edited: 9th Feb, 2018
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  15. Jamesaurus

    Jamesaurus Well-Known Member

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    Im a big VGAD fan.. this <$63 is buy territory for me
     
  16. devank

    devank Well-Known Member

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    Only Mustang is green today :)
     
  17. gman65

    gman65 Well-Known Member

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    Buying some shares today in case things stabilise and reverse, but keeping funds spare for further falls. Really depends how much jitters the US stock market has - if it corrects back to July/August levels the ASX has some way to go.
     
  18. willair

    willair Well-Known Member Premium Member

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    I would say they have been through this before,and in the words of the late Mr Kerry Packer -- "If you don't complain-you don't have to explain"..
    [​IMG]
     
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  19. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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  20. Redwing

    Redwing Well-Known Member

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    Picture borrowed from elsewhere, the S&P500 down 10% from its high but still 2% above its 200 day moving average

    upload_2018-2-9_9-27-30.png

    Apple apparently $118B down over last 15 days :confused: