Is this the start of the crash?

To those experienced investors who have seen a crash, does this look like the start?

 

This also has me concerned and after speaking with a couple of my colleagues at work today I'm wondering if I should switch my Super from high growth to cash.

The Dow Jones had the biggest one day stock drop in the history of the stock market and the slide is continuing.

 

My honest opinion @ErYan is I haven't the faintest clue. I'm almost sure you may get Yes, No and Maybe. Fair enough but the issue is for me being dividend focused, is at what stage do I commit to buy and how much am I prepared to commit?

 

If the share market crashes I think I may be tempted to jump in.
Where's the popcorn.

 

Looking back at the number's from the last "CFC" I would say it's too early to tell..Plus the Australian ASX market in numbers wise is vastly different compared too US based markets ,the US is vastly overvalued or was where as our home markets with trickle down economics never hit the levels of all O/S markets then there is the Brexit as it continues down the uncertain path..

The only item is busts like this come a go ,the media has a field day ,people sell people buy ..The challenge is don't panic just sit back and enjoy the experience and learn from the experience,myself I don't give a stuff ,I don't have one cent of debt ,have just had 2 orders complete from a few day's ago and technology works best when it's invisible as only number on a page..

 

You is going to do what you is going to do.

I'm no longer in the workforce so a completely different scenario to many. Having said that, I know in the back of my mind is always the need to make decisions of this nature; when to get out and when to get back in? I dismiss my own decisions as I know I'll never get either of them right.

 

I don’t have a clue either. And why does it matter? Just be ready for whatever happens and grab the opportunities when they arise. Yesterday and today certainly haven’t been enough to get me excited yet.

If the **** does hit the fan I think US markets will fall harder than ASX.

 

If you're a trader it might be an important question to ask.
If you're a long term buy and holder, this too shall pass.
This graph shows the last 110 years - lots of booms and crashes - but the overall trend is obvious.

 

No wonder you don't give a stuff.....you don't have debt

 

Ignore the media. I didn’t read anything today. Besides what number are they using, percentage? Probably not!

 

Me either. Oh what a feeling ...

 

Yep... Going to the streets with a bucket to see who is bleeding more

 

Good question with a good answer... from you!

It matters because... opportunities.

 

Don’t know and it doesn’t matter.

A recipe that has served me in the past: watch, do not get involved emotionally, ignore commentaries, secure cash flow, wait for signals to buy.

Be super patient when not doing and super decisive when doing.

 

The master has spoken:

 

I'm like Pavlov's dog.........or just Homer S......"Mmmmmmmm cheap shares...........aaaarrgghhhh"

 

Me too but it depends on one’s view of “cheap”.

 

Just so long as it's not this version of Homer S

 

Nah, more of a case of stuff debt. That's the wonder. No one putting their hand out saying You owe me so I own you.

 

Me either either ;P

As for Ops question, IMHO this will likely be a short term correction rather than a crash(so less than a 30% dip).

1) China's economic numbers like GDP/PMI still look stable/positive(though a slight slowdown trend) despite the government tightening regulations in the finance sector and also slimming down their excess in their pollutive sectors like steel. Usually global economy follows what happens in China, recent dips post GFC have all been linked to economic performance in China.(remember big dips end 2011 and start 2016? those were china driven)

2) whilst USA is tightening and reducing their balance sheet, ECB and JCB and other world central banks are still happily doing stimulus and piling on the debt. In fact China is still piling on debt albeit at a much slower pace this year. If anything the next GFC should originate from some crash in China.

3) Cryptocurrencies total Market Cap has only been around half a trillion when bitcoin was around $20k a piece. This amount though sizeable was less than the subprime bubble or the dotcom bubbles. For reference, US stock market hit $30 trillion before last weeks crash. However if cryptos have more than halved in market cap in past 2 months which means its has sucked >200billion worth of liquidity out of the system, thats quite a bit considering for comparison, during last stages of quatitative easing, US FED was doing 40billion in stimulus a month. I would expect it to affect financial markets to a certain extent in the short term.

However just like property, a lot of markets are dependent on sentiment. It really all depends on what the new Trump elected Fed Chair jerome powell says. methinks he will have to say something dovish and suggest less interest rate hikes. But who knows, its a mess in washington, they still havent sorted out the debt ceiling/gov funding/etc...