Is this the end of the crash?

Is it all over now?
What is the technical definition of a "bottom"?

 

Bottom is a constant of propositional logic interpreted to mean the canonical, undoubted contradiction whose falsehood nobody could possibly ever question.

I've no idea what it means either.

 

A bottom, or peak, of any market is only identified in hindsight. As the old saying goes, no one rings a bell.

No one knows if today is the bottom of the correction and it’s onwards and upwards, or only the first step in a long slide. Your optinion is as good as anyone else’s.

That is why advice to “buy at the bottom” is extremely difficult to follow.
Marg

 

Could track moving averages on VAS ETF ( asx 300 ) as a possible way to confirm an uptrend.

Market index site ( full desktop version) has a moving averages option on the chart.

VNGD Aus Shares ETF Units FP

 

The only 'definition' I have seen is basically that the terms such as 'correction = 10%' apply in both directions. So as a fall of 10% defines a correction, you need a rise of 10% to define an upwards correction. I guess the same applies to 'crash' although I've never heard of a crash upwards :lol:

 

They call those booms.

 

Did we have a crash? Am I missing something?

 

No Crash, probably more like this:

 

Only the start of a long slide..

 

NO

World Indices Roundup - Jan/Feb 2018 Major Top?

 

I was referring to what has happened to date. Hardly what you’d call a crash. As to what happens next however well best check your seat belt is working properly. Always be prepared for anything.

 

@Nodrog 's point was valid that the market is not really suffering badly yet it's just some cosmetic damage. We all describe it differently mostly due to personal perception, of course strictly to the definition technically this is not a crash (yet)

Use whatever words you like - crash, correction, pullback, retracement, downtrend, cheaper prices, summer sale, ....

None of it matters in the end, what matters is price and time. I would call it a small opportunity that is more likely to turn in to a bigger one.

 

You know what the worse case scenario would be from my viewpoint? Companies which no longer made profits and distributing a portion of those to me as dividends. Now that would be a crash of horrendous proportion.

I suppose it could be argued if most only focused on changes in capital (gains or loses) any downturn in those could be considered a crash of some nature. Because of the media focus on that aspect, I don't avidly follow business media. Yet to hear a news editor come on with a big smile saying XYZ Company today announced an increase it's interim dividend by 3% and the price is down 4% so this means it's time to buy. What are the chances?

 

Agree @SatayKing, in the end the higher yielding assets tend to be appreciated the most by investors. Exactly why long term discounted cash flow modelling is still a great way to see the real value of asset.

 

Ok looking at the last Crash (GFC) using All Industrial Shares as an example. Note the black line and dividend bars leading up to the GFC (2008). Did dividends really Crash or merely revert to their long term trend?



Ok same chart with some sloppy erasing. What Crash?



And some here still can’t understand why I love dividends so much.

 

What time frame are you looking at?

For there to be a bottom, there needs to be a sustained downtrend in place. I'd suggest that if this turns out to be more than a blip in the uptrend, this is only the start (from a longer-term time frame) particularly on the US markets.

Personally I'm anticipating a big splat with lots of mess. A 10 year bull market is unlikely to end quietly.

 

Sustained downward trend in prices or dividends?

You know, at one stage I watched, and then stopped doing so, the prices in a couple of share portfolios I have fluctuate by six figures over a month. Sure emotions we all have and it ain't nice to see that. But, but, but.........the dividends kept on coming and increased plus I got more of them from buying during that period. I've slowed up buying much in the last 18 months or so. Too much enthusiasm around.

I take your point if you are a trader. Some are very, very good but they are few and far between I think and many will be hurt if/when it goes down the gurgle. Don't have much sympathy as that's the game they decided to play.

Those who are good probably keep quite about it and they movie in dollar circles way bigger than me and likely most of us on this forum. People a bit like the late Kerry Packer who was refused entry to a golf club to play a round as he wasn't a member. Took out and paid on the spot the $6k membership fee in cash from a horde his assistant was carrying for him. Nice work if you can get it.

 

If you look back the dividends mostly stay the same ,just the face value price forcing down prices and profits for those companies competing around them..

As long as the dividends stay in the normal range,and if the opposite starts to be occurring unlike property ,selling just takes one click..

 

Care to share who the XYZ is? CBA?