NSW Is this a good time to buy first IP?

Hi, In next 6-12 months I am looking to buy my first property (house with land preferably blue chip) in Sydney, possibly South. However I am not clear should I probably wait due to all these interest % raise? Will this triger some fall or flat in property prices? Is this time good to buy for long term?

I read this forum for quite long and I saw a lot of experienced users with great portfolios. What is your overview?
Thank you

 

Youve been on the forum for 7 years. Since 2012 sydney houses have probably tripled. Since 2015 probably doubled?

whats stopped you from buying for the long term in the past and was it a good idea to wait?

no idea what prices will do in the short term, but if prices go up long term, you wont make money unless you buy at some point. You could wait, but if you wait too long…..

 

Imo, it's always a good time to buy, somewhere.

Choose a city your research says is at an advantageous part of the cycle, hone in on some suburbs, get forum feedback. Use a BA if you must. But take action. Don't wait another 7 years with no action.

You basically are asking questions where you want to know which path offers no risk. It doesn't exist.

Tbh, whatever path you've taken the last 7 years didn't work too well, considering the booms we've had.

 

I bought PROP in 2012 and since it trippled. I also invested in shares because shares doesn't require significant amounts to invest. Now I am ready for IP but the current situation is not clear because I never saw increase of the interest rate and I don't know what to expect. Will the prices go down? In this case strategy will be significantly different.
Also I specifically ask feedback of the forum on Sydney South (Southerland Shire to Wollongong). Do I need to specify suburbs?

 

How can anyone know this with certainty?

All you can do is base things off less likely to more likely using your own DD. Is it likely prices will come off in the next 12 months in Sydney? For me, more likely than not. But no body 'knows.' And if it comes off, by how much? If your buying long term, and you find a decent buy in next 6 months, would it not be worth it?

What else will you invest in otherwise? Will you have certainty that other asset won't drop?

My 2c. Forget asking will markets drop. Or even worse, will markets crash. Despite what others may tell you, no body 'knows'.

Invest accordingly to your risk tolerances. Your DD. Do not over extend yourself. Have buffers in place. And with a long term outlook.

 

This sounds reasonable. What about South of Sydney? I can clearly say that it has a lot of blue chip IPs but may be 2 IPs instead in South West is better?

 

There is always uncertainty, and that is part of the process. If it was easy or obvious, everyone would do it. All of the folks on this blog who purchased did it not knowing where markets would go next, but they did it anyway and it worked.

The "do I invest in property now or later" is a bit like asking when to start going to the gym. If you think property is a path to financial freedom or wealth creation/preservation, then you need to start straight away.

You won't know if now is a good time, just like everyone else didn't know when they started buying IP's.

Cheers,
John

 

Are things more or less certain now than in 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, 2021? How does it look in retrospect?

If things were more certain then, why didn't you buy then?
If things are more certain now, why don't you buy now?

Feedback isn't useful if you don't act on it. Most people think they need more data to be 'sure' before they buy. But you can't be sure, so most people don't buy. And you've seen what that has cost you in the last 10 years.

 

You'd know better than me if you've researched opportunities there. I wouldn't have a clue. Also our buying criteria is probably different. Thats why what may be good to you, may not be good to others.

Just make sure you avoid the 'obvious' mistakes.

Buying in massively over supplied markets. Buying emotionally. Buying in low demand OO areas. Buying in massive strata buildings. Buying on huge main roads (usually this is a mistake), overstretching your financial capacity to the limit, no buffers etc.

Avoid the common mistakes. Find the best deals you can which represents value. Then make your decision.

Btw I'm not saying to buy or not buy now. Only you can decide what's right for you.

 

I was in Ireland working for a bit. A spruiker came into our office selling Spanish real estate. Wanting to impress he said prices have increased 20% a year for the past ten years. I said you couldn't have told me anything worse to turn me off it.

This was a year or two before the GFC where Spanish prices completely imploded.

So I'm adverse to buying following a humungus bull run - but yes, there is no doubt we can forgo millions by not jumping in at almost any stage of a good boom.