Is Russia on the verge of invading Ukraine?

actually, 10 times more important.

 

... and that the western allies are two steps ahead with what Putin "plans" to do ... we were told days before that he would attempt a self strike and blame it on Ukraine - bingo ... video footage was released claiming it was troops leaving the area - metadata proved it was old footage ... Putin is lurching with a "want to but can't" mentality.

I predict this action will be his downfall

 

He is already sliding out of favour with the general population. The risk, that all this confrontational rhetoric will only inflame nationalists and give him some extra votes. If the the too eager ones were more measured. If only more leaders were like Germany or France, he wouldn’t have had a leg to stand on.

We all know if he wants to invade Ukraine, he can do it. And there is little anyone can do to stop him. We also know that energy Russia sells can be so easily shifted to China or wherever to render any sanctions useless. Finally, NATO is very unlikely to be part of confrontation. Not a with continental Europe being part of it.

But Biden needs a distraction from all the mess in the US and Putin needs a hero halo to win the votes. It almost feels like they pre planned this… but I know nothing. I’m just a sheeple.

 

It is indeed. Ukraine was one of those countries whose borders were "hastily" drawn at the end of the big war, just a few decades ago. But it contains very different ethnicities with different language, religion, history etc... think Yugoslavia. There was an international treaty (3 years ago I think) that was going to transform Ukraine into a federated model with almost independent states to reflect diversity of population and cultures, to reduce the internal issues in the country. But nothing has happened and the escalation we are seeing today is to some extent the consequences of nothing happening.
For ex, look at the happy population welcoming the russian army on the Eastern side of Ukraine yesterday... when a local population welcomes unanimously and so much a foreign army, it is hard to call the army "foreign" or even an "invasion" or a "war".

The end of the current developments might be to have occidental countries finally act on what they have signed a couple of years ago and let a federated union of Ukraine states happen, otherwise Russia will force a separation into different countries, or some kind of annexation for the East of Ukraine. Keep in mind Putin is portrayed as the only bad guy in the occidental media, but the real story is much more nuanced, and maybe more the other way around. Putin is working on his popularity within Russia and bordering countries (similar to his huge political gains he got when annexing Crimea, which was inhabited mostly by Russians...).

 

Putin is going in now.

 

Happening right now.

Putin orders Russian troops into eastern Ukraine separatist regions | DW | 21.02.2022

 

European sanctions started, probably the start of the end of Putin

 

Any World War 2 deja vu feelings for others? When Germany invaded Poland?

 

What are these sanctions exactly?

 

Gee hope not. Russia and China have the potential to be the new Germany and Japan, but even more powerful and with nukes. I'd hope that we learnt some valuable lessons from the past but....

 

Russia does make a habit of bullying it's neighbours. I can't imagine this is WW2 ish, but the West has shown weakness through the misadventure in the middle east. Both China and Russia are trying to take advantage.

Don't think we had NATO before WW2 ( fact check required).

 

On 4 March 1947, the Treaty of Dunkirkwas signed by France and the United Kingdom as a Treaty of Alliance and Mutual Assistance in the event of a possible attack by Germany or the Soviet Union in the aftermath of World War II. The North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO, /ˈneɪtoʊ/; French: Organisation du traité de l'Atlantique nord, OTAN), also called the North Atlantic Alliance, is an intergovernmental military alliance between 27 European countries, 2 North American countries, and 1 Eurasian country. The organization implements the North Atlantic Treaty that was signed on 4 April 1949.

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NATO

In other words, NATO was created and exists for times like these.

 

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.vo...dimir-putin-orders-troops-ukraine-east-donbas

 

We must defend the democratically elected governement of Ukraine

This is what happens when people get their news from the TV.
And many millions of influence fees paid.

 

It's like watching a game of chess ... your move

Ukraine and EU agree on establishing advisory military mission in Ukraine, Kyiv says

Although, rather than chess, I prefer the version that foreign politics is like every country at a huge poker table ... where everyone is cheating

 

That’s so true. But let’s just vilify one side. It’s so much easier. Let’s do it please!

I might forget international treaties signed by certain entities to give wide ranging autonomies to certain minorities but never implemented. Finally, I could think that desire of some peoples to self governance is of less value if it doesn’t fit my narrative.

 

Banking sanctions will be the main one, more details today. Just what I heard on the news.
Other possible sanctions against Russian energy, and foreign assets in dirty money centres like London.

 

I thought Russian banking system has been sanctioned since Crimea. Probably was wrong then.

 

Europe gets the majority of its winter heating (gas) from Russia. Whatever sanctions they decide they'll need to be careful.

 

That could become a political weapon as Nord Stream 2 and the sanctions imposed a few hours ago work both ways..