Is putin finished?

Discussion in 'Politics' started by Sackie, 2nd Mar, 2022.

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  1. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Well, I don't want to get sidetracked but lets pick one. The US shouldn't have gone after Osama in Afghanistan?
     
  2. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

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    Not sure I fully believe that news source..but anyway..irrespective, yes, this surely cannot be fully supported by neither the common man in Moscow nor some high ranking generals in Moscow. Most generals maybe, but there will be some who don't. This will only be more pronounced if it drags on and sanctions bite harder.
    It brings about another question...if he is ousted, every possibility someone worse could gain power. Probably unlikely, but who knows the internal workings of thr Kremlin.
     
  3. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Killing of Osama bin Laden - Wikipedia
    He was killed in Pakistan.
    Facts are facts.
    Don't let facts get in the way.
     
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  4. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Issue is lots of Russians know someone or a relative who maybe in Ukraine. Also Russia has become more properous...that means a lot do not want to go back to the old Soviet era of hardship!
     
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  5. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    Yes he was found in Pakistan eventually but he wasn't always there. Anyway, move on...
     
  6. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I see Putin being ousted - whether that is be an overthrow or assassination, I can't tell - but - when he goes, so do the dictators of Belarus and Crimea who handed their countries over to Putin (with Russian military backing) against the will of the people ... and I then see a shift in world order as China, SAE etc have a rethink
     
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  7. Gen-Y

    Gen-Y Well-Known Member

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    Look the world is forever changing.
    Hegemonic rule of the USA is coming to an end.
    I predict it would be rules by 2 or 3 hemispheric players - Europe "Nation", Asia "Nation", North America "Nation"

    I would hate to see someone tell me how I should run my own business - substitute business for country.
    I would tell you to get bend if you tell me how I need to run my business.
     
  8. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    Doubt China will rethink. If anything, it will learn and become smarter. Meaning not being stupid enough to hold most of its national wealth fund and reserve in US and UK banks like Russia. It will probably continue working on suffocating the US economically. So far, its winning big time. US economy is slowly becoming a nothing. I give US 10 years before it is the new Japan. Ex economic power. The new... meh

    Regarding Putin. Doubt it. The fact that he quashed any protests so quickly tells me he still wields a lot of Power. As long as he has the KGB behind him, and being an ex-officer of this tightly knit organisation, he is likely to have their backing till the day he dies.

    Over 7,000 people arrested in last 4 days based on some reports. That will scare anyone. He already cleared out all opposition, they are either in prison or poisoned. There is no one left to oppose him.

    Regardless of the war outcome, if sanctions continue to be slogged at the poorer general population, then the risk of further escalation only increases.
     
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  9. Lacrim

    Lacrim Well-Known Member

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    An uprising like the Arab spring, even against warmongers won't necessarily result in stability. Depends who takes their place - could go either way.
     
  10. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I think it is changing forever as the populations awaken and elect in (or demand) a more compassionate and practical "feminine" approach to rule - rather than the aggressive, win at any cost "masculine" of the past. A rebalancing so that both come to the fore - think Yin/Yang

    That is not to say the rulers will be females, rather those of a different world view. Only have to look at the difference between Putin and Zelenskyy to see this in play
     
  11. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    This war is very popular in China. The punters are lapping it up, make no mistake grievance nationalism is endemic in PRC these days. They will learn lessons from this but they won’t be the lessons you might hope.

    As for Putin, he still likely has 2/3rds support of the populace, with most 50+ rusted on. Of course, they haven’t seen what’s going on. In recent days the remaining independent media has been shut down for reporting “wrong information”. Only younger generation is accessing international sources of news.
    Most supporters beleive it is a police action in the Far East of Ukraine.

    The Russian psyche is hard to understand for us ; this is a society that is very different to ours - still in the 19th century. They’ve only ever been under the boot. Of the Czar, of the Soviet regime and now under Putin. There is no real concept of civil society, democracy, independent judiciary. This is a low trust society.

    Putting aside the purges, the great patriotic war and the gulag, in living memory they had the pure chaos of the end of the Soviet Union - a small window where early messy democracy emerged at the same time as extreme levels of crime, economic collapse and uncertainty. After Yeltsin handed the reigns over to Putin, Surkov created the Potemkin democracy ensuring power concentrated in Putins hands. Very many Russians like Putin as he is seen as a patriot, that is competent (not a drunkard) and the Russian economy and personal security (crime) vastly improved under his tenure (fuel prices largely). To date, life in Russia has been better in the last 20 years than the previous.

    Given the extreme level of police enforcement and zero tolerance for dissent it will be difficult to strike a match and ignite a spark for revolution. Having said that it is always possible. Can’t help but wonder what Russia would have been like if the reigns were given to Nemtsov instead of Putin.
     
  12. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    A lot of people don't understand the situation, Eastern Europe is of mixed heritage, essentially a Ukrainian could go to war against his own cousin or grandparent from Russia or Belarus.
     
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  13. Sackie

    Sackie Well-Known Member

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    My worry.
     
  14. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    I take these Russian published stats with a grain of salt ... do you really thing that, if you lived in Russia, you let anyone know of your opposition? Even if it were a "anonymous" survey - would you really trust your negative answer to actually be kept secret?
     
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  15. The Falcon

    The Falcon Well-Known Member

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    US independent pollsters get similar numbers. He has majority support, however inconvenient that may be. If this was not the case you would see large scale civil disobedience
     
  16. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    Yes..I get that..that is why a lot of Russia does not want a bar of the war.

    Also the troop morale is low...apparently they are deserting....conscripts only getting like $25pw...and treated like crap by their superiors.
     
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  17. Antoni0

    Antoni0 Well-Known Member

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    Exactly! The only people this war matters to is Putin and his cronies so that they can protect their wealth, everyone else in Russia lives a mere existence. They have the police running around jailing anyone that protests, so why would many speak out?
     
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  18. sash

    sash Well-Known Member

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    The masses have kept quiet as living conditions are not too bad...but if it goes to rubbish...then the masses will protest.

    Would not be surprised if Putin suddenly gets ill and dies. ;)
     
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  19. Noobieboy

    Noobieboy Well-Known Member

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    I will just leave you with this. If I knew me protesting would yield below result. I wouldn’t move, and tell all my relatives to shut up and be quiet. This is especially hard when the opposition in country is literally obliterated!

    'More than 6,000 arrests' in Russia during protests over Ukraine war
     
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  20. Lizzie

    Lizzie Well-Known Member

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    Go back and read my post, where I shared a quote from a message I received from Belarus ... I will assume Russia is similar in it's intolerance of protests, yet (latest figures) over 7,000 have been arrested for protesting in the last few days.

    Fear is Putin's weapon to keep the masses in check
     
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