Is Melboure about to burst?

Discussion in 'Property Market Economics' started by willister, 10th Apr, 2017.

Join Australia's most dynamic and respected property investment community
  1. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    3,038
    Location:
    melbourne
    yup it sure is

    there are 3 main hospitals in Heidelberg (which is a good thing)- I would stay away from 1-60 Ramu parade (Heidelberg West) - that's looks like a south central LA in the projects. If you thought sunshine dallas etc was rough that part of ramu is bad.

    If you go to bellfield - you can see those concrete houses as well (maybe try there looking)

    upload_2017-4-10_16-54-7.png
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  2. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    Oh dear. I just looked and Heidelberg Heights is going crazy! I thought it was booming when I sold in December 2015 but nothing like this. I am seeing sold prices of
    1275/m2 and 1339/m2.

    4 Spencer Street, Heidelberg Heights, Vic 3081 - Property Details
    53 Bamfield Road, Heidelberg Heights, Vic 3081 - Property Details

    These are right around the corner from the house I sold for just under $1,000/m2. Bummer! :(
     
  3. willister

    willister Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    769
    Location:
    Melbourne
    You win some you lose some, that's life.

    My folks sold off a property in 2006 in a leafy part of Maribyrnong for $430K, fearing that the heritage covenant would seriously affect the house price (impede it), sold off and moved to Glen Waverley back then for a massive block 700m2 and 700m to the station. Made big bucks but also lost big bucks in the process.

    I lived with them for another 5 years before I moved out, Maribyrnong was by far the better suburb to live in for uni/work.

    I still think Heidelberg Heights is cheap-ish for what its worth to be honest. I you look at Bentleigh East in the South that's raking it in at over $2,000 / m2. Sure it has a prestigious high school, but what the..
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  4. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    Blame the cleaners.....or the taxi drivers for spreading rumours and fueling the bubble.
     
  5. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jun, 2016
    Posts:
    930
    Location:
    Australia
    In Ireland people blamed the media. My parents are convinced the media crashed it by being too negative.
     
  6. Perthguy

    Perthguy Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    22nd Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    11,767
    Location:
    Perth
    I don't really regret my decision. I am just a bit shocked that my property went up $300k in 9 years and then apparently another $200k in just 18 months (no guarantees of course).

    But playing what ifs is largely pointless. I used the money from the sale to buy a really great project in Perth. Let's say I sold now instead. I would still use the money to buy a really great project in Perth. Then in 12 months time I might look back and see the market in HH had moved up another $100k. I could play that game until I missed the peak and then regret missing that. Pointless.
     
    Barny, pwt, ellejay and 1 other person like this.
  7. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    They probably do deserve some of it, they help hype and then magnify the downside as well, now if we can get them to the minimum wage, they will be the perfect scapegoat.
     
  8. Barny

    Barny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    16th Oct, 2015
    Posts:
    3,191
    Location:
    Australia
    Yep it's nuts and that's why interest rates need to go up to stop the crazy. check out similar distance to the east, hawthorn, Kew, Malvern...1.72-2.1m vs 1.2m median in Essendon.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  9. TMNT

    TMNT Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    23rd Jul, 2015
    Posts:
    5,572
    Location:
    Melbourne
  10. Spiderman

    Spiderman Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    29th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    296
    Location:
    Vic
    The residential streets at 1 Ramu Pde don't look toooo bad. But the local shops aren't inviting. Funny pocket to have an hydroponics shop though!

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37...zAmMgwtDqIFf87eu7Jtg!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en

    Although it's walking distance to Northland, the western end looks less attractive if this is any guide. Looks a bit like the flats around Albion.

    https://www.google.com.au/maps/@-37...7c1Cgf-uwjHSuUiSKG9g!2e0!7i13312!8i6656?hl=en
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  11. Realist35

    Realist35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Mar, 2016
    Posts:
    1,695
    Location:
    WA
    I feel like I need a couple of drinks every time I read one of your posts. I just feel the world is going to collapse and we are all going to disappear :p
     
    Creamy, Barny, MTR and 3 others like this.
  12. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,244
    Location:
    Brisbane
    it would help if you got a new avatar :)
     
    MTR and Realist35 like this.
  13. dabbler

    dabbler Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    18th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    8,572
    Location:
    Sid en e - olympic city
    A couple of pints of guinness will get you through the long days and nights realist, just make sure you wake up and keep your job :)
     
    highlighter and Realist35 like this.
  14. JDP1

    JDP1 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    19th Jun, 2015
    Posts:
    4,244
    Location:
    Brisbane
    maybe for sydney and mel, but not for the rest of the country. A rise in IR will not do any good whatsoever for the rest of us toothless hicks (ex sydney and melbourne)...and we dont have BRICS money bankrolling mil dollar no land right next to main road small properties either..:) We have to survive on our own.
     
    Barny likes this.
  15. Realist35

    Realist35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Mar, 2016
    Posts:
    1,695
    Location:
    WA
    Lol why's that? You don't like Borat?:p
     
  16. Realist35

    Realist35 Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Mar, 2016
    Posts:
    1,695
    Location:
    WA
    Pints of Guinness.. nice i like that:)
     
    highlighter likes this.
  17. highlighter

    highlighter Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Jun, 2016
    Posts:
    930
    Location:
    Australia
    Guinness solves everything (though on the downside, it does take like Guinness).
     
    Realist35 likes this.
  18. melbournian

    melbournian Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    2nd Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    3,038
    Location:
    melbourne
    this is happening across the whole of Melbourne. some suburbs stay dormant and quiet then suddenly it moves, seen it happen live in reservoir, sunshine, preston, st albans, maidstone, Ringwood, clayton, point cook.

    One of mine moved 200K in like a space of 8 months. We're not talking no million dollar properties but sub 500K properties. like pt cook dormant for like 2-3 years than it moves 100-150K.

    some ppl want to play in Brisbane but I rather find the next dormant suburb that will move.
     
    Perthguy likes this.
  19. New Town

    New Town Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    8th Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    746
    Location:
    QLD & NSW
    Remember the Media hyping the potential removal of Greece from the Eurozone during the GFC. What a waste of negative energy - somehow we were more concerned than even the Greeks!?
     
    Barny likes this.
  20. willister

    willister Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    1st Sep, 2015
    Posts:
    769
    Location:
    Melbourne
    I started my IP journey in Dec 16 (on a serious basis) and seriously the amount that the North I was expecting was mid 700ks but by Feb it was apparent this was way below market.

    I still think there is somewhat a bit of steam left in the North and West with the West probably slightly more steam. The biggest problem with the West is that apart from maybe Essendon there really hasn't been any "on the surface, it looks cleaner than Mr. Sheen" suburbs. Having said that, there is probably more organic growth out West than the North.

    I can't explain it, but sometimes you buy and hope for the best, well that's the only thing you can do. I sat on Ashburton way back in the early 2010s probably 2011? Way before it is what it is today...it looked even like a risky purchase back then for high 600s or low to mid 700ks.

    However, I was like well, it is only 11-12kms, bounded by wealthy suburbs especially Camberwell (my dream suburb). I waited too long before it was out of reach and had to settle for Chadstone instead, as it was a "near enough" suburb and again it was bounded by some decent suburbs like Mt Waverley.

    Even back then there was talk of a bubble burst even though houses were much, much cheaper.

    Would you guys roll on the floor laughing if I said that suburbs like Heidelberg Heights would one day average 1 million or at least high 900ks?
     
    Last edited: 11th Apr, 2017
    Perthguy likes this.