Is it time to sell in Brisbane?

So the market is crazy in Brisbane, houses are selling very quickly, within days most of the time. You only have to have one open house, and depending on the area dont even have to bother too much with renovations.
So my questions is how long is this going to last?
We have 2 ips and our own house. We were thinking of maybe selling our own house and moving to one of the other properties in January (lease is up then) to take advantage of this market (which might not be as good in January).
What do you think? Financially there is no immediate rush, we could wait 1-2 years.
Thank you

p.s I am 59, not retiring for another 4-5 years

 

What would you do with the money?
As a guide, if your property has doubled, selling would cost maybe 15% in cgt and fees. Even if brisbane slowed back to 5% a year…..

So you are down a chunk of money already.

It might make sense if you are switching to other assets that you think will do better than brisbane, or you are retiring soon and looking to lower leverage and getting more income from shares.

If you are still young and in accumulation stage….. think about if youd sold in sydney at the top in 2017.

 

There's still another good year at least of strong growth. But also in some places more than others. I think any asset with good growth fundamentals should continue to grow even when the market slows - that is inner/middle-ring houses, good land component, not on main road etc.

Just depends on where you're at in terms of your investment horizon.

 

I reckon brissie has another 12 to 18 months of solid growth before it settled. I reckon a median up to 800 to 900k is achievable based on other cycles.

 

Brisbane is just getting started , if you want to sell in the next couple of years I would sell this time next year at the earliest

 

No, just getting started

 

Not yet, this boom has not run its course.

 

You’d be crazy to sell now if you didn’t have to. I think that Brisbane houses (not units although they are doing better now) will increase on average by 8% plus in the next year. Where else can you get a safe 8% return? I’ve got friends and family who sold 3 to 4 years ago for no reason other than they had a hunch that property would down - probably spooked by Steven Keen. They all sold for about §435k, now worth 700k plus.

 

Exactly my thoughts 8% would be very conservative, wouldn’t surprise me if we get another 30% plus next year

 

I think it has years more to run.

But even if let's say I'm wrong and it is topping out now. Why woudn't you want to hold the real estate through the slow periods as well as the hot periods? We're not traders right?

 

Wait till the immigration from down south starts. I have so many colleagues who can’t wait to move up north. Who are fed up with Sydney prices (even though they own) or Melbourne’s congestion. If they sell a two bed apartment in North Shore they can get a decent house in Brissie.

I say we yet to see Brissie to shine. Then Olympics. Then….

Olympics create huge property boom in Sochi Russia. Who knows Sochi? No one. Their prices are on par with us now. Go figure

 

I have two stories for you.

- a friend sold his house in Sydney in 2014 after seeing early signs of the boom (at around 20% over his expectation). He decided to use some of the profit to take six months off work and travel around the world. Long story short, when he decided to buy again in a year time, market had moved 50% up and he had to buy 7km further out just to re-enter the market.
- My next door neighbour sold his house for $1.61m in August 2020. Currently it’s worth over $2.5m in today’s market just a year later and the regret is going to kill him eventually. An extra $900k could have retired him 10 year earlier but he got impatient.

Real estate cycles last years .. you can go back and look at data for last 100 years .. Brisbane is in first year of 3-4 years long cycle… usually prices grow the most in 2nd year of cycle (Sydney 2015) so just be patient and let the market do its work.

Anyone who sold a property in Brisbane from mid 2020 to early 2021 should be regretting massively for missing out on 30-40% growth that has come in just months .. don’t rush to join the Brisbane sellers regret club!

 

We are moving back to one of our IP 4 beds within 10km of CBD end of this, with the plan to tidy and sell around Feb next year and upgrade into a much better suburb (no doubt people have heard me bang on about Hawthorne/bulimba)

Im torn because yes this boom has much more to run, but maybe I won’t be missing out by upgrading and pouring the funds into the same market in a better, albeit more expensive suburb.

we don’t have the serviceability to hold & go
Again.

 

I know prices have boomed, but I have trouble with the new reality always thinking of older prices and needing to consider selling.

Bought in height of lockdown amongst doomsayers 30% crash predictions.

Might sell during the boom, despite everyone saying ' it isn't finished '

Cycles and pandemic don't go together.......so I think the current situation is unusual...... why wouldn't it snap back.

Olympics is the reason I can see .....

 

Olympics, jobs and migration, which are all interlinked to some extent

 

Oh and comparative affordability and lifestyle and weather and lack of covid and better traffic

 

If prices went backwards affordability would be even stronger.

What if the sign for boom was everyone saying 30% drop

And the sign for bust is everyone saying it's forever boomtime

 

30%?? Wow! I hope so. My friends and family would be having severe sellers’ remorse.

 

30% is a bit optomistic haha, I see another good bump perhaps in the teens (give or take based on how many migrants, both interstate or international) make their way into Brisbane. I then think it'll be pretty sustained growth from then until the Olympics - nothing huge but a comfortable ticking along.

 

I will take that 30% for inner ring of Brisbane
That would be amazing. It looks like it’s already heading towards 50% by year end of 2021.
That is my projection if the trend continues.